United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS)

UPS stock forecast: buy or sell

UPS stock outlook

  • United Parcel Service closed today at $115.33 after moving up a 1.38%.
  • The stock is configuring an uptrend pattern since mid-March, when it bottomed at $81.15. This rally marked a 42.12% gain
  • United Parcel Service, Inc. provides letter and package delivery, specialized transportation, logistics, and financial services. It operates through three segments: U. S.
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Important note:
The viewpoints given in this post are personal and should not be followed as recommendations for you to buy or sell stocks. The author of this document does not know the specific positions of the reader, his or her own financial statements or what is in his or her best interest at any given time. All users should speak with their financial advisor before buying or selling any securities Viewpoints are published for education purposes only

UPS stock chart overview

Should I buy United Parcel Service stock?

All successful traders recommend adhering to a trading strategy and not make decisions based on subjective opinions, rumors or feelings. Trading strategies are meant for helping you in the decision process of what stocks to pick and when is the best moment to buy them. At Stocks2.com, we like to use very simple but trusted and powerful trend following trading strategies. Simple things usually work the best

Is UPS stock a buy?

Currently, United Parcel Service stock doesn't match any of these trading strategies, so our recommendation is not to buy now. This doesn't mean we expect a selloff for UPS in the next few days, or that it may not rise higher. Simply, it doesn't match our recommended trading systems

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Should I sell United Parcel Service stock?

"To sell or not to sell", if you are holding United Parcel Service shares?. Trading strategies help us to avoid impulsive decisions based on our emotions or the buzz that surrounds the market. We like very simple setups to guide us on when is a good time to sell our shares. Be aware that these setups should not be used for selling short United Parcel Service stock

As a golden rule, you should never mantain an operation that generates greater losses than those expected by the time of the buy. When to sell your stock must always be dictated by the stop-loss (automatic or manual)

Is it time to sell United Parcel Service stock?

Currently, United Parcel Service stock doesn't match any of our preferred sell setups, so if you hold United Parcel Service stock and your operation is in profit probably is not time to sell now

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Analysts' recommendations to buy or sell United Parcel Service stock

Brokerage firms and financial institutions post stock ratings based on their views of the market and the fundamental and technical situation of the analyzed stock. Unfortunately, the accuracy of these predictions is not very high, and certainly not a direct buy or sell signal

In the last month, just one brokerage rating was published for United Parcel Service

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United Parcel Service ratings

Brokerage firmRating
Jun 15th, 2020
Citigroup Neutral

Technical analysis

Since in mid-March, United Parcel Service has been printing an uptrend that by now marked a gorgeous 42.12%. The chart shows higher highs and higher troughs, and along the way provided some buy points for those who wanted to invest. Latest pullback was in mid-May, when price bounced at $87.93. Currently, the price moves in a consolidation between its last top ($119.91) and its last bottom ($87.93)

SMAs overview

A favorite tool of many traders are the moving averages, that easily show market direction. A moving average is calculated as the simple mean of the previous N periods (usually sessions). Moving averages are usually calculated on different periods depending on the trading timeframe 21, 50, 100 and 200 days are the most usual moving averages

Supports and resistances

Traders use supports and resistances to spot price points in the stock price action that may act as glass ceiling, preventing the price of an asset to move in certain direction. A support level is a level where the price tends to find support as it falls. Price is more likely to "bounce off" this level rather than break through it. However, if the price breaks down the support, it will probably continue declining until meeting another support level. On the other side, a resistance level is where the price may find resistance as it moves up. Likewise, this means that the price is more likely to "bounce off" at this level, and if it finally crosses this level, it will rise more easily until it approaches the next resistance

The current resistances are:

  • R1: $116.84 (1.31% above)
  • R2: $116.95 (1.4% above)
  • R3: $117.45 (1.84% above)
  • The current supports are:

  • S1: $114.75 (-0.5% below)
  • S2: $113.54 (-1.55% below)
  • S3: $112.07 (-2.83% below)
  • Bollinger bands

    The so-called Bollinger bands are a widespread practice designed by John Bollinger. It is made up of 3 bands that are drawn superimposed on the price evolution chart:

    • The central band is a moving average, usually a simple moving average calculated with 20 periods
    • The upper band is calculated by adding to the value of the simple moving average 2 times the standard deviation of the moving average
    • The lower band is calculated by subtracting from the simple moving average 2 times the standard deviation of the moving average

    Since the price surpassed the upper band on July 6, the price dropped by 0.4%. The price is trading very close to the upper Bollinger band, indicating some level of overbought in recent sessions. This is not a sell signal, as price can move in these levels for many days and weeks

    Relative strength index

    The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is an oscillator-type indicator that measures price changes to reveal when the share or financial asset is oversold or overbought. Oscillator indicators, such as relative strength, are designed to indicate values in the range of 0-100. J. Welles Wilder introduced the relative strength indicator in the late 1970s and since then it has been widely used by stock traders

    The RSI dropped below the overbought level of 70 in early June after just crossing to the overbough zone for a single day (weak signal). The RSI reading today was 65.42. United Parcel Service price exploded a 4.42% since that level was lost

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    Earnings and financials

    UPS had the quarterly investors call and presented the Q1 report in late April. UPS underperformed Wall St estimates and reported an Earnings per Share of $1.15, that is a -7.26% less than the previous predictions of $1.24. Reported sales were $18.0 billion versus estimates of $17.3 billion.

    Same quarter last year, reported EPS was $1.39, so recently posted EPS means a drop of -17.27%. Revenue moved up a 5.1% on an annualized basis in the Q1, from $17.2B to $18.0B last quarter.

    UPS is presenting financial report on Thursday next week. Market analysts analysts estimate earnings of %s a share of $1.08, that is a 6.09% less than Q1. If you own or you are planning to buy UPS stock, you must be vigilant as the financial reporting day usually has a very high volatility, and price can jump up or down with exceptionally low liquidity and not respecting your buy or stop-loss orders. Check company's website to confirm time and details on the earnings call and the earnings report.

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