UPS stock: buy or sell?
Updated on:
August 23rd, 2019
4
United Parcel Service, Inc. provides letter and package delivery, specialized transportation, logistics, and financial services.
Should I buy UPS stock?
Trading stocks requires experience and discipline, and your buying and selling decisions must come following a methodology. That's why is so important to define your own trading plan that matches with your character as inversor. There are thousands of trading strategies for you to choose, but at Stocks2.com we prefer those that are simple but successful.Currently, United Parcel Service stock doesn't match any of these trading strategies, so our recommendation is not to buy.
| Buy setup | Elegible |
|---|---|
| New all-time high | No |
| New 52 week high | No |
| Price crossing up 200d MA | No |
| 100d MA crossing up 200d MA | No |
Is United Parcel Service stock a buy?
Everyday, hundreds of stock ratings are published by financial analysts to indicate a particular stock's attractiveness.
At Stocks2.com, we gathered 15 ratings published for UPS stock in the last month. The general sentiment of these ratings is bullish for UPS stock, with 7 positive ratings.| Date | Analyst / Broker | Previous rating | Current rating |
| 2019-7-31 | Credit Suisse Group | n/a | Neutral |
| 2019-7-29 | Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Hold |
| 2019-7-26 | Berenberg Bank | n/a | Buy |
| 2019-7-25 | UBS Group | n/a | Buy |
| 2019-7-25 | Raymond James | n/a | Strong-Buy |
| 2019-7-25 | Loop Capital | n/a | Buy |
| 2019-7-25 | JPMorgan Chase & Co. | n/a | Neutral |
| 2019-7-25 | Credit Suisse Group | n/a | Neutral |
| 2019-7-25 | Bank of America | Neutral | Buy |
| 2019-7-10 | Goldman Sachs Group | n/a | Buy |
| 2019-5-31 | UBS Group | n/a | Buy |
| 2019-4-26 | Raymond James | Strong-Buy | Strong-Buy |
| 2019-4-1 | Berenberg Bank | Hold | Buy |
| 2019-3-6 | Credit Suisse Group | n/a | Neutral |
| 2019-3-25 | Berenberg Bank | n/a | Hold |
UPS stock analysis
Daily outlook
United Parcel Service ended today at $111.32 and plummed a godawful -3.38%.
Shares of United Parcel Service plummed a godawful -3.38% and closed at $111.32. Since price and SMA200d lines crossed up on Jul 23rd, UPS climbed $8.19 (7.94%). On July, SMA100d and SMA200d crossed up triggering a rise of 8.71%.
Weekly outlook
United Parcel Service shares dropped -3.45% this week, ending at $111.32. Late July UPS boosted an amazing 14.32% in just one week.
United Parcel Service stock is drawing an uptrend with rising tops and bottoms. Now trading in between its last bottom and last top, UPS might consolidate in a flat-base, waiting to break out over or down under . Late July UPS price bounced up over the SMA of 40 weeks that acted as support stopping new slides. Since mid June when SMA20w and SMA40w crossed up, UPS price gained $13.92 per share (14.29%).
UPS stock price history
UPS IPO was on November 10th, 1999 at $39.95 per share1. Since then, UPS stock surged a 178.60%, with an average of 9.40% per year. If you had invested $1,000 in UPS stock in 1999, it would worth $1,786.00 today.
1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.
UPS stock historical price chart
UPS stock reached 52-week highs on September at $120.79, and all-time highs 2018-01-18 with a price of 127.79.
UPS stock price target is $122.90
How much a stock will be priced tomorrow or next week is quite unpredictable However, financial institutions invest time and resources to provide the most accurated estimations to help investors to make their decisions. You should not follow the analysts' UPS stock price predictions in the hope that they will be met as they may be wrong and not met. For the last 30 days we found 11 price forecasts for UPS stock:| Date | Analyst / Broker | Action | Previous target | Current target | Diff |
| 2019-7-31 | Credit Suisse Group | Set Price Target | n/a | $119.00 | - |
| 2019-7-29 | Stifel Nicolaus | Downgrades | n/a | $118.00 | - |
| 2019-7-25 | UBS Group | Raises Target | n/a | $128.00 | - |
| 2019-7-25 | Raymond James | Raises Target | $130.00 | $135.00 | 3.8% |
| 2019-7-25 | Loop Capital | Raises Target | n/a | $140.00 | - |
| 2019-7-25 | JPMorgan Chase & Co. | Set Price Target | n/a | $114.00 | - |
| 2019-7-25 | Credit Suisse Group | Raises Target | $113.00 | $119.00 | 5.3% |
| 2019-5-31 | UBS Group | Lowers Target | $118.00 | $110.00 | -6.8% |
| 2019-4-26 | Raymond James | Lowers Target | $135.00 | $130.00 | -3.7% |
| 2019-3-6 | Credit Suisse Group | Set Price Target | n/a | $114.00 | - |
| 2019-3-25 | Berenberg Bank | Reiterates | n/a | $125.00 | - |
| (in average) | $124.00 | $122.90 | -1.0% |
Financials and fundamental analysis
Earnings date and Earnings per Share
Since April, when United Parcel Service posted its last earnings report, it remained stable an ugly -0.95%. As soon as we get its posted EPS from the earnings report, we will update this report.| Quarter | Reporting date | Estimated EPS | Actual EPS | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-Q2 | - | n/a | 1.58 | n/a |
| 2017-Q3 | 2017-10-26 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 0.0% |
| 2017-Q4 | 2018-02-01 | 1.66 | 1.67 | 0.6% |
| 2018-Q1 | 2018-04-26 | 1.54 | 1.55 | 0.6% |
| 2018-Q2 | 2018-07-25 | 1.92 | 1.94 | 1.0% |
| 2018-Q3 | 2018-10-24 | 1.82 | 1.82 | 0.0% |
| 2018-Q4 | 2019-01-31 | 1.91 | 1.94 | 1.6% |
| 2019-Q1 | 2019-04-25 | 1.46 | n/a | n/a |
| 2019-Q2 | - | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 2019-Q3 | - | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Annual financial results
In 2018, United Parcel Service annual turnover rose a more than good 7.92% to $71,861.00 M dollars from $66,585.00 marked in 2017. When comparing 2018 vs 2017, nevertheless, profit margin (that is, the net income divided by revenues) remained constant a -0.70% to 6.67%. To have an up to date picture of the financial situation of United Parcel Service, we have calculated the trailing twelve month (TTM) sales and income figures. TTM values are the sum of the last 4 quarters and aproximate to an annual fiscal report ending in 2019-Q1 that can be compared to 2018 fiscal year results. Annual United Parcel Service TTM sales up to March 2019 were $71,908.00 and income was $4,557.00 M dollars. If we compare this TTM figures with the last reported annuality, we can review United Parcel Service business evolution since December 2018: Annual revenues up to March, compared to lastest yearly report, remained steady a tight 0.07%. Regarding profit margin, United Parcel Service stayed constant -0.33% to 6.67%| Year | Sales | YoY | Income/(margin) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | $55,490 M | - | $4,370 M7.9% | - |
| 2014 | $58,232 M | 4.94% | $3,032 M5.2% | -30.62% |
| 2015 | $58,363 M | 0.22% | $4,844 M8.3% | 59.76% |
| 2016 | $60,906 M | 4.36% | $3,431 M5.6% | -29.17% |
| 2017 | $66,585 M | 9.32% | $4,905 M7.4% | 42.96% |
| 2018 | $71,861 M | 7.92% | $4,791 M6.7% | -2.32% |
| TTM | $71,908 M | 0.07% | $4,557 M6.3% | -4.88% |
Quarterly financial results
United Parcel Service posted $17,160.00 million in revenues for 2019-Q1, a -13.54% less compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter earnings marked $1,111.00 million with a profit margin of 6.47%. Profit margin gained a 4.19% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was 2.28%. When comparing sales to same quarter last year, United Parcel Service sales marked a neutral move and stayed constant a 0.27%.| Quarter | Sales1 | QoQ2 | Income1/(margin) | QoQ2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-Q2 | $15,740 M | - | $1,380 M8.8% | - |
| 2017-Q3 | $15,980 M | 1.52% | $1,260 M7.9% | -8.70% |
| 2017-Q4 | $18,262 M | 14.28% | $1,101 M6.0% | -12.62% |
| 2018-Q1 | $17,113 M | -6.29% | $1,345 M7.9% | 22.16% |
| 2018-Q2 | $17,456 M | 2.00% | $1,485 M8.5% | 10.41% |
| 2018-Q3 | $17,444 M | -0.07% | $1,508 M8.6% | 1.55% |
| 2018-Q4 | $19,848 M | 13.78% | $453 M2.3% | -69.96% |
| 2019-Q1 | $17,160 M | -13.54% | $1,111 M6.5% | 145.25% |
United Parcel Service ownership
When you are planning to buy shares of a stock, it's always worth to review its ownership structure.United Parcel Service shares owned by insiders (that is, founders, CEO, CTO, main executives or other management staff) currently counts a 0.01% of all shares.
In case of United Parcel Service stock, 69.88% of its shares are held by institutions (mutual funds, pension funds, big banks and other large financial institutions). Bearish positions for UPS stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.
For a better understanding, the following table shows ownership data compared to other related companies:
| UPS | AIRT | ATSG | CHRW | EXPD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $77.6 B | $50.6 M | $1.2 B | $11.4 B | $12.1 B |
| Total shares | 697.5 M | 3.0 M | 59.4 M | 136.6 M | 172.0 M |
| Float shares | 697.8 M | 1.2 M | 57.1 M | 134.8 M | 169.5 M |
| - Institutional holdings (%) | 69.9% | 29.5% | 92.0% | 89.3% | 98.3% |
| - Insider holdings (%) | 0.0% | 42.0% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| Shares in short selling | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
UPS summary
| Friday, August 23rd, 2019 | |
|---|---|
| Open | $114.33 |
| Close | $111.32 |
| Day range | $110.51 - $114.60 |
| Previous close | $115.22 |
| Session gain | -3.38% |
| Average true range | $2.49 |
| 50d mov avg | $108.01 |
| 100d mov avg | $105.35 |
| 200d mov avg | $104.30 |
| Daily pattern | |
| Weekly pattern | lt06a |
United Parcel Service performance
To measure stock performance is always good to benchmark with competitors or related stocks. We selected Air T, Air Transport Services, C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Expeditors International of Washington and FedEx as the bechmarking frame for United Parcel Service stock.| Stock | 3m | 6m | 12m |
|---|---|---|---|
| UPSUnited Parcel Ser... | 17.13% | 3.60% | -6.07% |
| AIRTAir T | -10.15% | -13.86% | -23.17% |
| ATSGAir Transport Ser... | -6.74% | -19.68% | -3.44% |
| CHRWC.H. Robinson Wor... | 5.67% | -7.87% | -11.28% |
| EXPDExpeditors Intern... | -1.32% | -6.67% | -3.44% |
| FDXFedEx | -0.76% | -11.74% | -34.61% |
United Parcel Service competitors
One check before trading any stock is to review a list of its competitors, in this case for United Parcel Service. We selected 5 companies as United Parcel Service competitors as they are in the same industry or have similar market objectives.- Air T (AIRT)
- Air Transport Services (ATSG)
- C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW)
- Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD)
- FedEx (FDX)
Latest UPS stock news
- InvestorPlaceUnited Parcel Service Earnings: UPS Stock Soars on Strong ProfitJuly 24, 2019
- InvestorPlaceUnited Parcel Service Earnings: UPS Stock Falls on Q1 MissesApril 25, 2019
- Seeking AlphaWe See An Opportunity In United Parcel ServiceDecember 7, 2018