UPS stock: buy or sell?

UPS stock price: $120.53 -1.82% At close on November 19th, 2019

Updated on:
November 19th, 2019

5

United Parcel Service slipped a rough -1.82% and closed at $120.53.

United Parcel Service, Inc. provides letter and package delivery, specialized transportation, logistics, and financial services.

Should I buy UPS stock?

Even if you are a experienced or a novel trader, best trading results come from using an investing strategy that never leaves to random or subjective opinions when is the best moment to buy or sell stocks. Having a trading strategy helps to make decisions easier, quicker and with less hesitations. At Stocks2.com, we use very simple but trusted and powerful trend following trading strategies. Simple things usually work the best.

None of our preferred buy setups matches with United Parcel Service stock situation right now, therefore this is not a suitable entry point.

Buy setupElegible
New all-time highNo
New 52 week highNo
Price crossing up 200d MANo
100d MA crossing up 200d MANo
This is not a selling recommendation at all, just it's not the best moment to buy if you follow any of these trading strategies.

Is United Parcel Service stock a buy?

Financial institutions and banks post stock ratings everyday. At Stocks2.com, we gathered 15 ratings published for UPS stock in the last 30 days.

The general sentiment of these ratings is bullish for UPS stock, with 9 positive ratings.
Is UPS a good stock to buy?
DateAnalyst / BrokerPrevious ratingCurrent rating
2019-9-9Bank of American/aBuy
2019-8-26Daiwa Capital MarketsNeutralOutperform
2019-7-31Credit Suisse Groupn/aNeutral
2019-7-29Stifel NicolausBuyHold
2019-7-26Berenberg Bankn/aBuy
2019-7-25UBS Groupn/aBuy
2019-7-25Raymond Jamesn/aStrong-Buy
2019-7-25Loop Capitaln/aBuy
2019-7-25JPMorgan Chase & Co.n/aNeutral
2019-7-25Credit Suisse Groupn/aNeutral
2019-7-25Bank of AmericaNeutralBuy
2019-7-10Goldman Sachs Groupn/aBuy
2019-5-31UBS Groupn/aBuy
2019-4-26Raymond JamesStrong-BuyStrong-Buy
2019-4-1Berenberg BankHoldBuy

UPS stock analysis

Daily outlook

Shares of United Parcel Service ended today at $120.53 and slipped a rough -1.82%.

United Parcel Service shares slipped -1.82% to $120.53 today. Since price and SMA200d lines crossed up on July, UPS climbed $18.19 (17.77%). On August, SMA50d and SMA100d crossed up triggering a rise of 5.83%.

UPS stock chart (daily)

Weekly outlook

United Parcel Service ended this week at $120.53 and eased a fatal -2.59%.

Since price and SMA40w lines crossed up late July, UPS climbed $18.88 (18.57%). Since mid June when SMA20w and SMA40w crossed up, UPS price gained $23.88 per share (24.71%).

UPS stock chart (weekly)

UPS stock price history

UPS IPO was on November 10th, 1999 at $39.64 per share1. Since then, UPS stock surged a 204.10%, with a yearly average of 10.20%. If you had invested right after UPS's IPO a $1,000 in UPS stock in 1999, it would worth $2,041.00 today.

1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.

UPS stock historical price chart

UPS stock reached 52-week highs on Nov/8 at $124.34, and all-time highs 2018-01-18 with a price of 126.8.

UPS stock price target is $124.80

Nobody can reliably foresee how stock prices may evolve in the future. However, financial institutions invest time and resources to provide the most accurated estimations to help investors to make their decisions. You should not follow the analysts' UPS stock price predictions in the hope that they will be met as they may be wrong and not met. We detected 10 price predictions for United Parcel Service stock published in the last 30 days:
UPS stock price predictions
DateAnalyst / BrokerActionPrevious targetCurrent targetDiff
2019-9-9Bank of AmericaReiterates$130.00$135.003.8%
2019-7-31Credit Suisse GroupSet Price Targetn/a$119.00-
2019-7-29Stifel NicolausDowngradesn/a$118.00-
2019-7-25UBS GroupRaises Targetn/a$128.00-
2019-7-25Raymond JamesRaises Target$130.00$135.003.8%
2019-7-25Loop CapitalRaises Targetn/a$140.00-
2019-7-25JPMorgan Chase & Co.Set Price Targetn/a$114.00-
2019-7-25Credit Suisse GroupRaises Target$113.00$119.005.3%
2019-5-31UBS GroupLowers Target$118.00$110.00-6.8%
2019-4-26Raymond JamesLowers Target$135.00$130.00-3.7%
(in average)$125.20$124.800.0%
Moving in a range from $140.00 and $110.00, the price prediction for United Parcel Service stock is $124.80. In average, analysts' outlook on UPS price target is stable from previous estimations.

Financials and fundamental analysis

Earnings date and Earnings per Share

Since April, when United Parcel Service presented its last earnings report, it . As soon as we get its posted EPS from the earnings report, we will extend this review.
UPS earnings date and EPS evolution
QuarterReporting dateEstimated EPSActual EPSSurprise
2017-Q2-n/a1.58n/a
2017-Q32017-10-261.451.450.0%
2017-Q42018-02-011.661.670.6%
2018-Q12018-04-261.541.550.6%
2018-Q22018-07-251.921.941.0%
2018-Q32018-10-241.821.820.0%
2018-Q42019-01-311.911.941.6%
2019-Q12019-04-251.46n/an/a
2019-Q2-n/an/an/a
2019-Q3-n/an/an/a

Annual financial results

Compared to 2017, last anual sales report draw a remarkable growth of 7.92% to $71,861.00 million dollars. When comparing 2018 vs 2017, instead, profit margin (that is, the net income divided by revenues) stayed steady a -0.70% to 6.67%.

United Parcel Service presents anual results in December, and to evaluate its evolution since then, we estimate annual sales and income figures by adding results from the last 4 quarters. This is called TTM (or Twelve Trailing Months). So, United Parcel Service TTM sales up to March 2019 were $71,908.00 and income $4,557.00 M USD. If we compare this TTM figures with the last reported annuality, we can esteem United Parcel Service business evolution since December 2018: Annual revenues up to March, compared to lastest yearly report, remained stable a tight 0.07%. In the same way, profit margin (net income/sales) stayed constant at 6.67%.

UPS annual Sales and Income evolution
YearSalesYoYIncome/(margin)YoY
2013$55,490 M-$4,370 M7.9%-
2014$58,232 M4.94%$3,032 M5.2%-30.62%
2015$58,363 M0.22%$4,844 M8.3%59.76%
2016$60,906 M4.36%$3,431 M5.6%-29.17%
2017$66,585 M9.32%$4,905 M7.4%42.96%
2018$71,861 M7.92%$4,791 M6.7%-2.32%
TTM $71,908 M0.07%$4,557 M6.3%-4.88%

Quarterly financial results

United Parcel Service reported $17,160.00 M in revenues for 2019-Q1, a -13.54% decline compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter earnings marked $1,111.00 M with a profit margin of 6.47%. Profit margin inched a 4.19% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was 2.28%. When comparing turnover to same quarter last year, United Parcel Service sales marked a neutral move and remained steady a 0.27%.
UPS quarterly Sales and Income evolution
QuarterSales1QoQ2Income1/(margin)QoQ2
2017-Q2$15,740 M-$1,380 M8.8%-
2017-Q3$15,980 M1.52%$1,260 M7.9%-8.70%
2017-Q4$18,262 M14.28%$1,101 M6.0%-12.62%
2018-Q1$17,113 M-6.29%$1,345 M7.9%22.16%
2018-Q2$17,456 M2.00%$1,485 M8.5%10.41%
2018-Q3$17,444 M-0.07%$1,508 M8.6%1.55%
2018-Q4$19,848 M13.78%$453 M2.3%-69.96%
2019-Q1$17,160 M-13.54%$1,111 M6.5%145.25%

United Parcel Service ownership

When you are planning to invest in a stock, it's always worth to review its ownership structure.

Management staff in all public traded companies that hold equity is required to report every transaction to the SEC. For United Parcel Service, 0.01% of all outstanding shares are owned by its staff.

In case of United Parcel Service stock, 69.88% of its shares are held by institutions (mutual funds, pension funds, big banks and other large financial institutions). Bearish positions for UPS stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.

The following table compares ownership indicators for other stocks related to United Parcel Service:

UPSAIRTATSGCHRWEXPD
Market cap$84.5 B$60.4 M$1.4 B$10.2 B$12.9 B
Total shares700.8 M3.0 M59.4 M135.3 M170.3 M
Float shares700.4 M1.2 M57.1 M134.7 M169.2 M
  - Institutional holdings (%)69.9%29.5%92.0%89.3%98.3%
  - Insider holdings (%)0.0%42.0%2.6%0.5%0.6%
Shares in short selling0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

UPS summary

Tuesday, November 19th, 2019
Open$123.46
Close$120.53
Day range$120.23 - $123.54
Previous close$122.77
Session gain-1.82%
Average true range$2.10
50d mov avg$118.12
100d mov avg$114.63
200d mov avg$109.12
Daily pattern
Weekly pattern

United Parcel Service performance

Stocks performance is always measured in comparision to the market or competitors and related stocks in the same industry. In the following table, we compare United Parcel Service to Air T, Air Transport Services, C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Expeditors International of Washington and FedEx:
Stock3m6m12m
UPSUnited Parcel Ser...9.16%27.80%14.78%
AIRTAir T6.12%5.44%-29.58%
ATSGAir Transport Ser...20.51%9.10%29.50%
CHRWC.H. Robinson Wor...-7.99%-4.51%-13.70%
EXPDExpeditors Intern...10.51%6.07%4.45%
FDXFedEx4.08%-0.71%-28.44%

United Parcel Service competitors

One check before trading any stock is to review a list of its competitors, in this case for United Parcel Service. We selected 5 companies as United Parcel Service competitors as they are in the same industry or have similar market objectives.

Latest UPS stock news