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Taylor Morrison Home Corporation (TMHC)

TMHC stock forecast: buy or sell

Close on Sep 25th, 2020
$23.45 -0.01%
3 months performance
0.29%
Published: September 27th, 2020 - 01:17

TMHC stock outlook

  • Taylor Morrison Home stock inched down -1.18% to close at $23.45 on the stock market on Friday.
  • From the chart point view, price is drawing an scaled downtrend since late August with lower tops and lower bottoms. this downtrend marked a -10.53% loss.
  • Taylor Morrison Home Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a public homebuilder in the United States.

Important note:
The opinions expressed in this post are personal and not recommendations for you to buy or sell stocks. The author of this paper does not have any knowledge of the specific positions of the reader, his or her own financial statements or his or her own best interests at any given time. All users should speak with their financial advisor before buying or selling any securities Thoughts are posted for learning motives only

TMHC stock charts

Should I buy Taylor Morrison Home stock?

Even if you are a experienced or a novel trader, best trading results come from using an investing strategy that never leaves to random or subjective opinions when is the best moment to buy or sell stocks. Trading strategies are meant for helping you in the decision process of what stocks to pick and when is the best moment to buy them. At Stocks2.com, we like to use very simple but trusted and powerful trend following trading strategies. Simple things usually work the best

Is TMHC stock a buy?

In the current situation of Taylor Morrison Home there is not any eligible buy setup. This doesn't mean we expect a selloff for TMHC in coming sessions, or that it may not climb higher. Simply, it doesn't match our recommended trading systems

Should I sell Taylor Morrison Home stock?

How to know when is it time to sell Taylor Morrison Home?. Trading strategies help us to avoid impetuous decisions based on our sentiments or the buzz surrounding the market. When selling, as well as buying, detailed strategies are very simple to follow but are only valid for selling stocks you already own, not for shorting TMHC stock

A golden rule is that you must never hold an investment that yields greater losses than those expected by the time of purchase. When to sell shares always has to be determined by the stop-loss (automatic or manual)

Is it time to sell Taylor Morrison Home stock?

In the current situation of Taylor Morrison Home there is not any eligible sell setup, so Taylor Morrison Home stock holders with operations in green can keep their positions

Price lost SMA50 level

However, that uptrend could have come to an end, or be showing signs of weakening, by now that the price lost the sma50 threshold on Wednesday. The time above the 50-day simple moving average has been short (10 sessions) so any price falling back below that level would indicate that there are likely signs of weakness and it might be the good moment to exit the position if we are mid-term investors or swing traders

Analysts' recommendations to buy or sell Taylor Morrison Home stock

Brokerage firms and financial institutions post stock ratings based on their views of the market and the fundamental and technical situation of the analyzed stock. Unfortunately, the accuracy of these predictions is not very high, and certainly not a direct buy or sell signal

In the last 30 days, just one rating was published for Taylor Morrison Home

Taylor Morrison Home ratings

Brokerage firmRating
Sep 17th, 2020
Barclays

Technical analysis

Taylor Morrison Home accumulates a selloff of -10.53% since its latest peak late August at $26.21. Like in all downtrends, the stock oscillates drawing lower highs and lows. In this case, we have seen 2 consecutive lower tops

SMAs overview

Moving averages are tools for traders to measure stock momentum. A moving average is the average price of a stock over a set period of time. Moving averages are usually calculated on different periods depending on the trading timeframe 21, 50, 100 and 200 days are the most usual moving averages

TMHC SMAs chart

Supports and resistances

Investors use support and resistance levels to spot price points on a chart that tend to work as glass ceiling, preventing the price of an asset to move up or down. A support level is a level where the price may stop as it falls. Price is more likely to "rebound" this level rather than break through it. However, if the price breaks down the support, it is likely to continue declining until approaching another support level. On the other side, resistances are where the price tends to find resistance as it moves up. Likewise, the price is more likely to "rebound" at this level, and if it finally crosses this level, it will rally easily until it hits the next resistance

The current resistance levels are:

  • R1: $23.89 (1.88% above)
  • R2: $24.25 (3.41% above)
  • R3: $24.39 (4.01% above)
  • The current supports are:

  • S1: $23.05 (-1.71% below)
  • S2: $23.01 (-1.88% below)
  • S3: $22.85 (-2.56% below)
  • Bollinger bands

    The so-called Bollinger bands are a widespread technique developed by John Bollinger. Essentially, the Bollinger Bands are lines that move around a centralmoving average, varying the distance from the bottom to the top depending on market volatility. They are usually drawn by an offset of two standard deviations, above and below, from a moving average line. Bollinger himself recommends the moving average period to be 20

    TMHC RSI chart

    Relative strength index

    The Relative Strength Index is an oscillator-type indicator that track price fluctuations to spot when the price of a share or financial asset is overbought or oversold. Oscillator indicators, such as relative strength, are intended to indicate values in the range of 0-100. The relative strength indicator is one of the best known and most widely used indicators, and it was invented by J. Welles Wilder in 1978

    When the RSI fluctuates for so long below 70 and above 30, without showing moments of overbought and oversold, the indicator is of little use, and we find ourselves in one of these situations.

    TMHC RSI chart

    Earnings and financials

    TMHC hosted the investors call and presented the second-quarter report in late July. TMHC missed consensus earnings estimates and reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.50, that is a -3.85% worse than the previous predictions of $0.52. Reported sales were $1.5 billion compared to estimates of $1.6 billion.

    Same quarter last year, reported EPS was $0.76, so recently reported EPS means a loss of -34.21%. Looking at sales, figures exploded a 20.65% compared to $1.3B same quarter last year. Taylor Morrison Home reported three year over year quarterly positive results, increasing turnover by 68.13% from $908.0M on 2017-Q3.

    TMHC is hosting the Q3 earnings call on late next October. Wall Street analysts estimate an EPS of $0.61, that is a 22% higher than Q2. Financial reporting day has an additional risk for investors as the results published can soar and sink the stock price with exceptionally low liquidity and not respecting your buy/stop-loss orders. You can probably obtain more details about the earnings call and the financial reports on the Investor Relations section of its website: http://www.taylormorrison.com.

    TMHC revenues and profits chart