Novavax stock: buy or sell?
Updated on:
May 21st, 2019
1
Novavax, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of recombinant nanoparticle vaccines and adjuvants.
Should I buy Novavax stock?
You can't be a successful trader if you don't follow a methodolgy or system that assist you in choosing companies and the correct market timing. Trading strategies are meant for helping you in the decision process of what stocks to choose and when is the best time to buy them. At Stocks2.com, we use very simple but trusted and powerful trend following trading strategies. Simple things usually work the best.None of our preferred buy setups matches with Novavax stock situation right now, hence this is not a suitable entry point.
| Buy setup | Elegible |
|---|---|
| New all-time high | No |
| New 52 week high | No |
| Price crossing up 200d MA | No |
| 100d MA crossing up 200d MA | No |
Is Novavax stock a buy?
Financial institutions and banks publish stock ratings everyday.
At Stocks2.com, we gathered 8 ratings published for NVAX stock in the last 30 days.| Date | Analyst / Broker | Previous rating | Current rating |
| 2019-3-4 | B. Riley | Buy | Buy |
| 2019-3-19 | HC Wainwright | Positive | Buy |
| 2019-3-19 | Cantor Fitzgerald | n/a | Hold |
| 2019-2-28 | Piper Jaffray Companies | Overweight | Underweight |
| 2019-2-28 | JPMorgan Chase & Co. | Overweight | Underweight |
| 2019-2-28 | HC Wainwright | n/a | Buy |
| 2019-1-29 | Cantor Fitzgerald | n/a | Hold |
| 2019-1-28 | HC Wainwright | n/a | Buy |
Novavax stock analysis
Daily outlook
Novavax rocketed a phenomenal 3.48% and closed at $6.25.
Shares of Novavax ended today at $6.25 and rocketed a phenomenal 3.48%. Since February when NVAX stock price broke down the SMA200d line, it slid $-36.35 per share (-85.33%).
Weekly outlook
After sliding for 4 weeks, this week Novavax climbed a super good 5.93%, closing at $6.25. Last week NVAX plummed a scary -11.36% in just one week. After 4 weeks sliding, this week raised a 5.33%.
Since late February, when NVAX stock price broke down the 40-weeks moving avarage line, it slid $-32.15 per share (-83.72%). Stocks below the 200 days moving average line are usually not recommended for average traders.
Novavax stock price history
Novavax IPO was on December 5th, 1995 at $67.50 per share1. Since then, NVAX stock lost a -90.70%, with a yearly average of -3.90%.
1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.
Novavax stock historical price chart
NVAX stock reached 52-week highs on December at $51.60, and all-time highs 2001-10-10 with a price of 311.
Novavax stock price target is $3.10
How much a stock will be priced tomorrow or next week is quite unpredictable However, banks and other financial institutions analysts, with the help of lots of data and algorithms do their best to predict the stock prices movement. You should not follow the analysts' NVAX stock price predictions in the hope that they will be met as they may be wrong and not met. For the last month we found 6 price targets for NVAX stock:| Date | Analyst / Broker | Action | Previous target | Current target | Diff |
| 2019-3-4 | B. Riley | Lowers Target | $10.00 | $1.75 | -82.5% |
| 2019-3-19 | HC Wainwright | Raises Target | $2.00 | $2.13 | 6.5% |
| 2019-3-19 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Set Price Target | n/a | $1.00 | - |
| 2019-2-28 | HC Wainwright | Reiterates | n/a | $6.00 | - |
| 2019-1-29 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Reiterates | n/a | $2.00 | - |
| 2019-1-28 | HC Wainwright | Initiates | n/a | $6.00 | - |
| (in average) | $6.00 | $3.10 | -48.0% |
Financials and fundamental analysis
Earnings date and Earnings per Share
On March, Novavax presented its financial report, posting a good gain for the Earnings per Share (EPS) ratio. Analyst expected $-0.12 per share, but Novavax posted $-0.13.| Quarter | Reporting date | Estimated EPS | Actual EPS | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-Q1 | - | n/a | -0.16 | n/a |
| 2017-Q2 | - | n/a | -0.16 | n/a |
| 2017-Q3 | - | n/a | -0.15 | n/a |
| 2017-Q4 | 2018-03-14 | -0.15 | -0.16 | n/a |
| 2018-Q1 | 2018-05-09 | -0.14 | -0.14 | n/a |
| 2018-Q2 | 2018-08-08 | -0.12 | -0.12 | n/a |
| 2018-Q3 | 2018-11-07 | -0.12 | -0.12 | n/a |
| 2018-Q4 | 2019-03-18 | -0.12 | -0.13 | n/a |
| 2019-Q1 | - | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 2019-Q2 | - | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Annual financial results
Compared to 2017, last anual revenues report draw a wonderful gain of 9.98% to $34.29 million dollars. Likewise, its income margin (compared to sales) skyrocketed to -538.81%, that is $-184.75 million.| Year | Sales | YoY | Income/(margin) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | $21 M | - | $-51.98 M-248.5% | - |
| 2014 | $31 M | 46.55% | $-82.95 M-270.5% | 59.57% |
| 2015 | $36 M | 18.24% | $-156.94 M-432.9% | 89.20% |
| 2016 | $15 M | -57.65% | $-279.97 M-1823.5% | 78.39% |
| 2017 | $31 M | 103.06% | $-183.77 M-589.5% | -34.36% |
| 2018 | $34 M | 9.98% | $-184.75 M-538.8% | 0.53% |
Quarterly financial results
Novavax reported $6.13 million in revenues for 2018-Q4, a -20.79% less compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter earnings marked $-49.33 M with a profit margin of -805.19%. Profit margin plummed a -228.98% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was -576.21%. When comparing revenues to same quarter last year, Novavax sales marked a hair-raising drop down and collapsed a -41.15%. Looking back to recent quarterly results, Novavax posted 2 positive quarters in a row.| Quarter | Sales1 | QoQ2 | Income1/(margin) | QoQ2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-Q1 | $6 M | - | $-43.85 M-772.0% | - |
| 2017-Q2 | $7 M | 18.49% | $-44.47 M-660.8% | 1.41% |
| 2017-Q3 | $8 M | 24.10% | $-44.61 M-534.1% | 0.31% |
| 2017-Q4 | $10 M | 24.66% | $-50.84 M-488.3% | 13.98% |
| 2018-Q1 | $10 M | -7.29% | $-46.35 M-480.2% | -8.83% |
| 2018-Q2 | $11 M | 11.60% | $-44.49 M-413.0% | -4.01% |
| 2018-Q3 | $8 M | -28.20% | $-44.57 M-576.2% | 0.18% |
| 2018-Q4 | $6 M | -20.79% | $-49.33 M-805.2% | 10.69% |
Novavax ownership
When you are planning to buy shares of a company, it's worth to review its ownership structure.Management staff in all public traded companies that hold equity is required to report every transaction to the SEC. For Novavax, 0.95% of all outstanding shares are owned by its staff.
In case of Novavax stock, 34.42% of its shares are held by institutions (mutual funds, pension funds, big banks and other large financial institutions). Bearish positions for NVAX stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.
The following table compares ownership indicators for other stocks related to Novavax:
| NVAX | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | $146.7 M |
| Total shares | 23.5 M |
| Float shares | 23.2 M |
| - Institutional holdings (%) | 34.4% |
| - Insider holdings (%) | 0.9% |
| Shares in short selling | 0.0% |
Novavax summary
| Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 | |
|---|---|
| Open | $6.09 |
| Close | $6.25 |
| Day range | $5.91 - $6.28 |
| Previous close | $6.04 |
| Session gain | 3.48% |
| Average true range | $0.99 |
| 50d mov avg | $9.92 |
| 100d mov avg | $23.80 |
| 200d mov avg | $29.36 |
| Daily pattern | lt03a |
| Weekly pattern | lb06a |
Novavax performance
Stocks performance is always measured in comparision to the market or competitors and related stocks in the same industry. In the following table, we compare Novavax performance to :| Stock | 3m | 6m | 12m |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVAXNovavax | -83.72% | -81.83% | -81.40% |