Novavax stock: buy or sell?
Updated on:
July 15th, 2019
0
Novavax, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of recombinant nanoparticle vaccines and adjuvants.
Should I buy Novavax stock?
You can't be a successful trader if you don't follow a methodolgy or system that assist you in choosing companies and the correct market timing. Following a trading plan helps to make decisions easier, quicker and with less hesitations. At Stocks2.com, we like to use very simple but trusted and powerful trend following trading strategies. Simple things usually work the best.Currently, Novavax stock doesn't match any of these trading strategies, so our recommendation is not to buy.
| Buy setup | Elegible |
|---|---|
| New all-time high | No |
| New 52 week high | No |
| Price crossing up 200d MA | No |
| 100d MA crossing up 200d MA | No |
Is Novavax stock a buy?
Everyday, hundreds of stock ratings are published by financial analysts to indicate a particular stock's attractiveness.
At Stocks2.com, we detected 10 ratings published for NVAX stock in the last 30 days.| Date | Analyst / Broker | Previous rating | Current rating |
| 2019-7-1 | HC Wainwright | Buy | Positive |
| 2019-6-11 | LADENBURG THALM/SH SH | n/a | Buy |
| 2019-3-4 | B. Riley | Buy | Buy |
| 2019-3-19 | HC Wainwright | Positive | Buy |
| 2019-3-19 | Cantor Fitzgerald | n/a | Hold |
| 2019-2-28 | Piper Jaffray Companies | Overweight | Underweight |
| 2019-2-28 | JPMorgan Chase & Co. | Overweight | Underweight |
| 2019-2-28 | HC Wainwright | n/a | Buy |
| 2019-1-29 | Cantor Fitzgerald | n/a | Hold |
| 2019-1-28 | HC Wainwright | n/a | Buy |
Novavax stock analysis
Daily outlook
Novavax closed today at $4.72 and collapsed a terrifying -3.67%.
Novavax collapsed a terrifying -3.67% and closed at $4.72. NVAX is retaking the upward trend marking a new rising bottom heading to break out over $7.15. Since price and SMA200d lines crossed down on February, NVAX fell $-37.88 per share (-88.92%).
Weekly outlook
Shares of Novavax closed this week at $4.72 and eased a terrible -3.67%. Early July NVAX plummed a dreadful -14.23% in just one week. By mid June NVAX rocketed an amazing 11.55% in just one week. For 3 weeks in a row, price slid and lost a -20.25%.
Since late February, when NVAX stock price broke down the 40-weeks moving avarage line, it slid $-33.68 per share (-87.71%). Stocks below the 40-weeks moving average line are usually not recommended for average traders.
Novavax stock price history
Novavax IPO was on December 5th, 1995 at $67.50 per share1. Since then, NVAX stock declined a -93.00%, with a yearly average of -4.00%.
1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.
Novavax stock historical price chart
NVAX stock reached 52-week highs on December at $51.60, and all-time highs 2001-10-10 with a price of 311.
Novavax stock price target is $4.10
Predicting the price evolution of a stock or any financial instrument in a reliable and repeatable way is probably impossible. However, many stock price predictions are published every day by banks, financial institutions and independent analysts. The accuracy of these stock price predictions is not very high, and you should not blindly believe and make decisions only based on what this ratings or price target predictions say. For the last 30 days we found 8 price forecasts for Novavax stock:| Date | Analyst / Broker | Action | Previous target | Current target | Diff |
| 2019-7-1 | HC Wainwright | Reiterates | $10.00 | $12.00 | 20% |
| 2019-6-11 | LADENBURG THALM/SH SH | Reiterates | n/a | $2.00 | - |
| 2019-3-4 | B. Riley | Lowers Target | $10.00 | $1.75 | -82.5% |
| 2019-3-19 | HC Wainwright | Raises Target | $2.00 | $2.13 | 6.5% |
| 2019-3-19 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Set Price Target | n/a | $1.00 | - |
| 2019-2-28 | HC Wainwright | Reiterates | n/a | $6.00 | - |
| 2019-1-29 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Reiterates | n/a | $2.00 | - |
| 2019-1-28 | HC Wainwright | Initiates | n/a | $6.00 | - |
| (in average) | $7.30 | $4.10 | -44.0% |
Financials and fundamental analysis
Earnings date and Earnings per Share
Novavax presented beatiful results for 2018-Q4 on March. Novavax raised Earnings per Share (EPS) by 8.30%, beating analysts consensus of $-0.12. Novavax posted $-0.13.| Quarter | Reporting date | Estimated EPS | Actual EPS | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-Q1 | - | n/a | -0.16 | n/a |
| 2017-Q2 | - | n/a | -0.16 | n/a |
| 2017-Q3 | - | n/a | -0.15 | n/a |
| 2017-Q4 | 2018-03-14 | -0.15 | -0.16 | n/a |
| 2018-Q1 | 2018-05-09 | -0.14 | -0.14 | n/a |
| 2018-Q2 | 2018-08-08 | -0.12 | -0.12 | n/a |
| 2018-Q3 | 2018-11-07 | -0.12 | -0.12 | n/a |
| 2018-Q4 | 2019-03-18 | -0.12 | -0.13 | n/a |
| 2019-Q1 | - | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 2019-Q2 | - | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Annual financial results
In 2018, Novavax annual turnover escalated a great 9.98% to $34.29 M USD from $31.18 marked in 2017. In line, its income margin (compared to sales) skyrocketed to -538.81%, that is $-184.75 million.| Year | Sales | YoY | Income/(margin) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | $21 M | - | $-51.98 M-248.5% | - |
| 2014 | $31 M | 46.55% | $-82.95 M-270.5% | 59.57% |
| 2015 | $36 M | 18.24% | $-156.94 M-432.9% | 89.20% |
| 2016 | $15 M | -57.65% | $-279.97 M-1823.5% | 78.39% |
| 2017 | $31 M | 103.06% | $-183.77 M-589.5% | -34.36% |
| 2018 | $34 M | 9.98% | $-184.75 M-538.8% | 0.53% |
Quarterly financial results
Novavax posted $6.13 million in sales for 2018-Q4, a -20.79% decline compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter earnings marked $-49.33 million with a profit margin of -805.19%. Profit margin plunged a -228.98% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was -576.21%. When comparing sales to same quarter last year, Novavax sales marked a frightening loss and collapsed a -41.15%. Looking back to recent quarterly results, Novavax posted 2 negative quarters in a row.| Quarter | Sales1 | QoQ2 | Income1/(margin) | QoQ2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-Q1 | $6 M | - | $-43.85 M-772.0% | - |
| 2017-Q2 | $7 M | 18.49% | $-44.47 M-660.8% | 1.41% |
| 2017-Q3 | $8 M | 24.10% | $-44.61 M-534.1% | 0.31% |
| 2017-Q4 | $10 M | 24.66% | $-50.84 M-488.3% | 13.98% |
| 2018-Q1 | $10 M | -7.29% | $-46.35 M-480.2% | -8.83% |
| 2018-Q2 | $11 M | 11.60% | $-44.49 M-413.0% | -4.01% |
| 2018-Q3 | $8 M | -28.20% | $-44.57 M-576.2% | 0.18% |
| 2018-Q4 | $6 M | -20.79% | $-49.33 M-805.2% | 10.69% |
Novavax ownership
When you are planning to invest in shares of a company, it's worth to have a look its ownership structure.Management staff in all public traded companies that hold equity is required to report every transaction to the SEC. For Novavax, 0.95% of all outstanding shares are owned by its staff.
In case of Novavax stock, 34.42% of its shares are held by institutions (mutual funds, pension funds, big banks and other large financial institutions). Bearish positions for NVAX stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.
For a better context understanding, the next table shows ownership data compared to other related stocks:
| NVAX | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | $110.8 M |
| Total shares | 23.5 M |
| Float shares | 23.2 M |
| - Institutional holdings (%) | 34.4% |
| - Insider holdings (%) | 0.9% |
| Shares in short selling | 0.0% |
Novavax summary
| Monday, July 15th, 2019 | |
|---|---|
| Open | $4.90 |
| Close | $4.72 |
| Day range | $4.65 - $4.95 |
| Previous close | $4.90 |
| Session gain | -3.67% |
| Average true range | $0.42 |
| 50d mov avg | $5.93 |
| 100d mov avg | $9.96 |
| 200d mov avg | $25.13 |
| Daily pattern | lb02a |
| Weekly pattern | lt03a |
Novavax performance
Performance as an absolute value is never valid if it's not benchmarked against competitors or related stocks in the industry. In the following table, we compare Novavax to :| Stock | 3m | 6m | 12m |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVAXNovavax | -54.62% | -88.49% | -83.50% |