Novavax stock: buy or sell?

NVAX stock price: $4.72 -3.67% At close on July 15th, 2019

Updated on:
July 15th, 2019

0

Shares of Novavax closed today at $4.72 and collapsed a terrifying -3.67%. On July/3 NVAX plummed a hair-raising -11.61%. With Monday it's been 3 sliding days in a row, loosing $-0.41 (-8.01%).

Novavax, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of recombinant nanoparticle vaccines and adjuvants.

Should I buy Novavax stock?

You can't be a successful trader if you don't follow a methodolgy or system that assist you in choosing companies and the correct market timing. Following a trading plan helps to make decisions easier, quicker and with less hesitations. At Stocks2.com, we like to use very simple but trusted and powerful trend following trading strategies. Simple things usually work the best.

Currently, Novavax stock doesn't match any of these trading strategies, so our recommendation is not to buy.

Buy setupElegible
New all-time highNo
New 52 week highNo
Price crossing up 200d MANo
100d MA crossing up 200d MANo
This doesn't mean NVAX will slide in coming sessions, or it will not rise higher. Simply, it doesn't match our recommended trading systems.

Is Novavax stock a buy?

Everyday, hundreds of stock ratings are published by financial analysts to indicate a particular stock's attractiveness. At Stocks2.com, we detected 10 ratings published for NVAX stock in the last 30 days.

Is NVAX a good stock to buy?
DateAnalyst / BrokerPrevious ratingCurrent rating
2019-7-1HC WainwrightBuyPositive
2019-6-11LADENBURG THALM/SH SHn/aBuy
2019-3-4B. RileyBuyBuy
2019-3-19HC WainwrightPositiveBuy
2019-3-19Cantor Fitzgeraldn/aHold
2019-2-28Piper Jaffray CompaniesOverweightUnderweight
2019-2-28JPMorgan Chase & Co.OverweightUnderweight
2019-2-28HC Wainwrightn/aBuy
2019-1-29Cantor Fitzgeraldn/aHold
2019-1-28HC Wainwrightn/aBuy

Novavax stock analysis

Daily outlook

Novavax closed today at $4.72 and collapsed a terrifying -3.67%.

Novavax collapsed a terrifying -3.67% and closed at $4.72. NVAX is retaking the upward trend marking a new rising bottom heading to break out over $7.15. Since price and SMA200d lines crossed down on February, NVAX fell $-37.88 per share (-88.92%).

NVAX stock chart (daily)

Weekly outlook

Shares of Novavax closed this week at $4.72 and eased a terrible -3.67%. Early July NVAX plummed a dreadful -14.23% in just one week. By mid June NVAX rocketed an amazing 11.55% in just one week. For 3 weeks in a row, price slid and lost a -20.25%.

Since late February, when NVAX stock price broke down the 40-weeks moving avarage line, it slid $-33.68 per share (-87.71%). Stocks below the 40-weeks moving average line are usually not recommended for average traders.

NVAX stock chart (weekly)

Novavax stock price history

Novavax IPO was on December 5th, 1995 at $67.50 per share1. Since then, NVAX stock declined a -93.00%, with a yearly average of -4.00%.

1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.

Novavax stock historical price chart

NVAX stock reached 52-week highs on December at $51.60, and all-time highs 2001-10-10 with a price of 311.

Novavax stock price target is $4.10

Predicting the price evolution of a stock or any financial instrument in a reliable and repeatable way is probably impossible. However, many stock price predictions are published every day by banks, financial institutions and independent analysts. The accuracy of these stock price predictions is not very high, and you should not blindly believe and make decisions only based on what this ratings or price target predictions say. For the last 30 days we found 8 price forecasts for Novavax stock:
NVAX stock price predictions
DateAnalyst / BrokerActionPrevious targetCurrent targetDiff
2019-7-1HC WainwrightReiterates$10.00$12.0020%
2019-6-11LADENBURG THALM/SH SHReiteratesn/a$2.00-
2019-3-4B. RileyLowers Target$10.00$1.75-82.5%
2019-3-19HC WainwrightRaises Target$2.00$2.136.5%
2019-3-19Cantor FitzgeraldSet Price Targetn/a$1.00-
2019-2-28HC WainwrightReiteratesn/a$6.00-
2019-1-29Cantor FitzgeraldReiteratesn/a$2.00-
2019-1-28HC WainwrightInitiatesn/a$6.00-
(in average)$7.30$4.10-44.0%
The price target for Novavax stock is $4.10, moving in a range between $12.00 and $1.00. In average, analysts' outlook on NVAX price target is negative, reducing the target by a -44.00% from previous estimations.

Financials and fundamental analysis

Earnings date and Earnings per Share

Novavax presented beatiful results for 2018-Q4 on March. Novavax raised Earnings per Share (EPS) by 8.30%, beating analysts consensus of $-0.12. Novavax posted $-0.13.
NVAX earnings date and EPS evolution
QuarterReporting dateEstimated EPSActual EPSSurprise
2017-Q1-n/a-0.16n/a
2017-Q2-n/a-0.16n/a
2017-Q3-n/a-0.15n/a
2017-Q42018-03-14-0.15-0.16n/a
2018-Q12018-05-09-0.14-0.14n/a
2018-Q22018-08-08-0.12-0.12n/a
2018-Q32018-11-07-0.12-0.12n/a
2018-Q42019-03-18-0.12-0.13n/a
2019-Q1-n/an/an/a
2019-Q2-n/an/an/a

Annual financial results

In 2018, Novavax annual turnover escalated a great 9.98% to $34.29 M USD from $31.18 marked in 2017. In line, its income margin (compared to sales) skyrocketed to -538.81%, that is $-184.75 million.

NVAX annual Sales and Income evolution
YearSalesYoYIncome/(margin)YoY
2013$21 M-$-51.98 M-248.5%-
2014$31 M46.55%$-82.95 M-270.5%59.57%
2015$36 M18.24%$-156.94 M-432.9%89.20%
2016$15 M-57.65%$-279.97 M-1823.5%78.39%
2017$31 M103.06%$-183.77 M-589.5%-34.36%
2018$34 M9.98%$-184.75 M-538.8%0.53%

Quarterly financial results

Novavax posted $6.13 million in sales for 2018-Q4, a -20.79% decline compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter earnings marked $-49.33 million with a profit margin of -805.19%. Profit margin plunged a -228.98% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was -576.21%. When comparing sales to same quarter last year, Novavax sales marked a frightening loss and collapsed a -41.15%. Looking back to recent quarterly results, Novavax posted 2 negative quarters in a row.
NVAX quarterly Sales and Income evolution
QuarterSales1QoQ2Income1/(margin)QoQ2
2017-Q1$6 M-$-43.85 M-772.0%-
2017-Q2$7 M18.49%$-44.47 M-660.8%1.41%
2017-Q3$8 M24.10%$-44.61 M-534.1%0.31%
2017-Q4$10 M24.66%$-50.84 M-488.3%13.98%
2018-Q1$10 M-7.29%$-46.35 M-480.2%-8.83%
2018-Q2$11 M11.60%$-44.49 M-413.0%-4.01%
2018-Q3$8 M-28.20%$-44.57 M-576.2%0.18%
2018-Q4$6 M-20.79%$-49.33 M-805.2%10.69%

Novavax ownership

When you are planning to invest in shares of a company, it's worth to have a look its ownership structure.

Management staff in all public traded companies that hold equity is required to report every transaction to the SEC. For Novavax, 0.95% of all outstanding shares are owned by its staff.

In case of Novavax stock, 34.42% of its shares are held by institutions (mutual funds, pension funds, big banks and other large financial institutions). Bearish positions for NVAX stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.

For a better context understanding, the next table shows ownership data compared to other related stocks:

NVAX
Market cap$110.8 M
Total shares23.5 M
Float shares23.2 M
  - Institutional holdings (%)34.4%
  - Insider holdings (%)0.9%
Shares in short selling0.0%

Novavax summary

Monday, July 15th, 2019
Open$4.90
Close$4.72
Day range$4.65 - $4.95
Previous close$4.90
Session gain-3.67%
Average true range$0.42
50d mov avg$5.93
100d mov avg$9.96
200d mov avg$25.13
Daily patternlb02a
Weekly pattern lt03a

Novavax performance

Performance as an absolute value is never valid if it's not benchmarked against competitors or related stocks in the industry. In the following table, we compare Novavax to :
Stock3m6m12m
NVAXNovavax-54.62%-88.49%-83.50%

Novavax competitors

Unfortunately, we could not find any public company that could be defined as Novavax competitor. This doesn't mean Novavax does not have any competitor in the market, it's just we could not detected it.