Novavax stock: buy or sell?

NVAX stock price: $6.25 3.48% At close on May 21st, 2019

Updated on:
May 21st, 2019

1

Novavax shares rocketed 3.48% to $6.25 today. On May/14 NVAX boosted an amazing 19.21%. On Friday NVAX plummed a frightening -8.98%.

Novavax, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of recombinant nanoparticle vaccines and adjuvants.

Should I buy Novavax stock?

You can't be a successful trader if you don't follow a methodolgy or system that assist you in choosing companies and the correct market timing. Trading strategies are meant for helping you in the decision process of what stocks to choose and when is the best time to buy them. At Stocks2.com, we use very simple but trusted and powerful trend following trading strategies. Simple things usually work the best.

None of our preferred buy setups matches with Novavax stock situation right now, hence this is not a suitable entry point.

Buy setupElegible
New all-time highNo
New 52 week highNo
Price crossing up 200d MANo
100d MA crossing up 200d MANo
This is not a selling recommendation at all, just it's not the best moment to buy if you follow any of these trading strategies.

Is Novavax stock a buy?

Financial institutions and banks publish stock ratings everyday. At Stocks2.com, we gathered 8 ratings published for NVAX stock in the last 30 days.

Is NVAX a good stock to buy?
DateAnalyst / BrokerPrevious ratingCurrent rating
2019-3-4B. RileyBuyBuy
2019-3-19HC WainwrightPositiveBuy
2019-3-19Cantor Fitzgeraldn/aHold
2019-2-28Piper Jaffray CompaniesOverweightUnderweight
2019-2-28JPMorgan Chase & Co.OverweightUnderweight
2019-2-28HC Wainwrightn/aBuy
2019-1-29Cantor Fitzgeraldn/aHold
2019-1-28HC Wainwrightn/aBuy

Novavax stock analysis

Daily outlook

Novavax rocketed a phenomenal 3.48% and closed at $6.25.

Shares of Novavax ended today at $6.25 and rocketed a phenomenal 3.48%. Since February when NVAX stock price broke down the SMA200d line, it slid $-36.35 per share (-85.33%).

NVAX stock chart (daily)

Weekly outlook

After sliding for 4 weeks, this week Novavax climbed a super good 5.93%, closing at $6.25. Last week NVAX plummed a scary -11.36% in just one week. After 4 weeks sliding, this week raised a 5.33%.

Since late February, when NVAX stock price broke down the 40-weeks moving avarage line, it slid $-32.15 per share (-83.72%). Stocks below the 200 days moving average line are usually not recommended for average traders.

NVAX stock chart (weekly)

Novavax stock price history

Novavax IPO was on December 5th, 1995 at $67.50 per share1. Since then, NVAX stock lost a -90.70%, with a yearly average of -3.90%.

1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.

Novavax stock historical price chart

NVAX stock reached 52-week highs on December at $51.60, and all-time highs 2001-10-10 with a price of 311.

Novavax stock price target is $3.10

How much a stock will be priced tomorrow or next week is quite unpredictable However, banks and other financial institutions analysts, with the help of lots of data and algorithms do their best to predict the stock prices movement. You should not follow the analysts' NVAX stock price predictions in the hope that they will be met as they may be wrong and not met. For the last month we found 6 price targets for NVAX stock:
NVAX stock price predictions
DateAnalyst / BrokerActionPrevious targetCurrent targetDiff
2019-3-4B. RileyLowers Target$10.00$1.75-82.5%
2019-3-19HC WainwrightRaises Target$2.00$2.136.5%
2019-3-19Cantor FitzgeraldSet Price Targetn/a$1.00-
2019-2-28HC WainwrightReiteratesn/a$6.00-
2019-1-29Cantor FitzgeraldReiteratesn/a$2.00-
2019-1-28HC WainwrightInitiatesn/a$6.00-
(in average)$6.00$3.10-48.0%
The price prediction for Novavax stock is $3.10, moving in a range between $6.00 and $1.00. In average, analysts' outlook on NVAX price target is negative, downgrading the target by a -48.00% from previous estimations.

Financials and fundamental analysis

Earnings date and Earnings per Share

On March, Novavax presented its financial report, posting a good gain for the Earnings per Share (EPS) ratio. Analyst expected $-0.12 per share, but Novavax posted $-0.13.
NVAX earnings date and EPS evolution
QuarterReporting dateEstimated EPSActual EPSSurprise
2017-Q1-n/a-0.16n/a
2017-Q2-n/a-0.16n/a
2017-Q3-n/a-0.15n/a
2017-Q42018-03-14-0.15-0.16n/a
2018-Q12018-05-09-0.14-0.14n/a
2018-Q22018-08-08-0.12-0.12n/a
2018-Q32018-11-07-0.12-0.12n/a
2018-Q42019-03-18-0.12-0.13n/a
2019-Q1-n/an/an/a
2019-Q2-n/an/an/a

Annual financial results

Compared to 2017, last anual revenues report draw a wonderful gain of 9.98% to $34.29 million dollars. Likewise, its income margin (compared to sales) skyrocketed to -538.81%, that is $-184.75 million.

NVAX annual Sales and Income evolution
YearSalesYoYIncome/(margin)YoY
2013$21 M-$-51.98 M-248.5%-
2014$31 M46.55%$-82.95 M-270.5%59.57%
2015$36 M18.24%$-156.94 M-432.9%89.20%
2016$15 M-57.65%$-279.97 M-1823.5%78.39%
2017$31 M103.06%$-183.77 M-589.5%-34.36%
2018$34 M9.98%$-184.75 M-538.8%0.53%

Quarterly financial results

Novavax reported $6.13 million in revenues for 2018-Q4, a -20.79% less compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter earnings marked $-49.33 M with a profit margin of -805.19%. Profit margin plummed a -228.98% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was -576.21%. When comparing revenues to same quarter last year, Novavax sales marked a hair-raising drop down and collapsed a -41.15%. Looking back to recent quarterly results, Novavax posted 2 positive quarters in a row.
NVAX quarterly Sales and Income evolution
QuarterSales1QoQ2Income1/(margin)QoQ2
2017-Q1$6 M-$-43.85 M-772.0%-
2017-Q2$7 M18.49%$-44.47 M-660.8%1.41%
2017-Q3$8 M24.10%$-44.61 M-534.1%0.31%
2017-Q4$10 M24.66%$-50.84 M-488.3%13.98%
2018-Q1$10 M-7.29%$-46.35 M-480.2%-8.83%
2018-Q2$11 M11.60%$-44.49 M-413.0%-4.01%
2018-Q3$8 M-28.20%$-44.57 M-576.2%0.18%
2018-Q4$6 M-20.79%$-49.33 M-805.2%10.69%

Novavax ownership

When you are planning to buy shares of a company, it's worth to review its ownership structure.

Management staff in all public traded companies that hold equity is required to report every transaction to the SEC. For Novavax, 0.95% of all outstanding shares are owned by its staff.

In case of Novavax stock, 34.42% of its shares are held by institutions (mutual funds, pension funds, big banks and other large financial institutions). Bearish positions for NVAX stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.

The following table compares ownership indicators for other stocks related to Novavax:

NVAX
Market cap$146.7 M
Total shares23.5 M
Float shares23.2 M
  - Institutional holdings (%)34.4%
  - Insider holdings (%)0.9%
Shares in short selling0.0%

Novavax summary

Tuesday, May 21st, 2019
Open$6.09
Close$6.25
Day range$5.91 - $6.28
Previous close$6.04
Session gain3.48%
Average true range$0.99
50d mov avg$9.92
100d mov avg$23.80
200d mov avg$29.36
Daily patternlt03a
Weekly pattern lb06a

Novavax performance

Stocks performance is always measured in comparision to the market or competitors and related stocks in the same industry. In the following table, we compare Novavax performance to :
Stock3m6m12m
NVAXNovavax-83.72%-81.83%-81.40%

Novavax competitors

Unfortunately, we could not find any public company that could be defined as Novavax competitor. This doesn't mean Novavax does not have any competitor in the market, it's just we could not detected it.