NMI stock: buy or sell?

NMIH stock price: $34.09 0.59% At close on November 15th, 2019

Updated on:
November 15th, 2019

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After marking all time highs on Wednesday, NMI stepped up 0.59% to $34.09. On November/7 NMIH boosted a super good 9.00%.

NMI Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides private mortgage guaranty insurance services in the United States.

Should I buy NMI stock?

Trading stocks requires experience and discipline, and your buying and selling decisions must come following a methodology. That's why is so important to define your own trading strategy that fits your character as inversor. There are thousands of trading strategies for you to choose, but at Stocks2.com we prefer those that are simple but successful.

Currently, 2 buy setups are elegible for NMI stock right now:

Buy setupElegible
New all-time highYes
New 52 week highYes
Price crossing up 200d MANo
100d MA crossing up 200d MANo

Is NMI stock a buy?

Banks and financial institutions post stock ratings everyday. At Stocks2.com, we detected 4 ratings published for NMIH stock in the last 30 days.

The general sentiment of these ratings is bullish for NMIH stock, with 3 positive ratings.
Is NMIH a good stock to buy?
DateAnalyst / BrokerPrevious ratingCurrent rating
2019-8-2Zelman & AssociatesHoldBuy
2019-6-26B. Rileyn/aNeutral
2019-4-18SunTrust Banksn/aBuy
2019-2-14Barclaysn/aBuy

NMI stock analysis

Daily outlook

NMI stepped up 0.59% yesterday to $34.09 after topping to all time highs on Wednesday.

NMI stepped up 0.59% yesterday to $34.09 after topping to all time highs on Wednesday. From a daily perspective, NMIH is in a short term uptrend after plotting its last bottom ($28.63, on Oct 30th) higher than the previous bottom, and its last top ($34.50, on Wednesday) also over the previous top. Now trading in between its last bottom and last top NMIH might consolidate in a plain range, waiting to break out over $34.50 or down under $28.63. Since last October 29th when SMA50d and SMA100d crossed up, NMIH price gained $4.72 per share (16.07%). Since price and SMA100d lines crossed up on October 15th, NMIH climbed $7.16 (26.59%). On Wednesday, NMIH hit new all time highs, pushing higher previous ATH of $33.88 recorded on Tuesday. New ATHs are usual entry points for many trading setups as there aren't higher resistences.

NMIH stock chart (daily)

Weekly outlook

NMI shares set new all time highs back again this week, marking to $34.50. Shares ended at $34.09 and escalated 3.59% during the week. Last week NMIH boosted an outstanding 11.12% in just one week.

Weekly chart tells us that price finally broke over the resistance at $28.95 and continued climbing. Since price and SMA40w lines crossed up early January, NMIH climbed $15.95 (87.93%). Since late October when SMA10w and SMA20w crossed up, NMIH price gained $4.68 per share (15.91%).

NMIH stock chart (weekly)

NMI stock price history

NMI stock went public on November 8th, 2013 with a price of $14.001. Since then, NMIH stock grew a 143.50%, with a yearly average of 23.90%. If you had invested $1,000 in NMI stock in 2013, it would worth $1,435.00 today.

1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.

NMI stock historical price chart

NMIH stock reached all-time highs on Wednesday with a price of $34.50.

NMI stock price target is $30.70

Nobody can reliably foresee how stock prices may evolve in the future. However, banks and other financial institutions analysts, with the help of lots of data and algorithms do their best to predict the stock prices movement. You should not follow the analysts' NMIH stock price predictions in the hope that they will be met as they may be wrong and not met. We found 3 price targets for NMI stock posted in the last 30 days:
NMIH stock price predictions
DateAnalyst / BrokerActionPrevious targetCurrent targetDiff
2019-6-26B. RileyRaises Target$28.00$30.007.1%
2019-4-18SunTrust BanksInitiatesn/a$34.00-
2019-2-14BarclaysSet Price Targetn/a$28.00-
(in average)$28.00$30.7010.0%
Moving in a range from $34.00 and $28.00, the price forecast for NMIH stock is $30.70. In average, analysts' outlook on NMIH price target is positive, improving the forecast by a 10.00% from previous estimations.

Financials and fundamental analysis

Earnings date and Earnings per Share

Since last February, when NMI presented its last earnings report, it . As soon as we get its posted EPS from the earnings report, we will extend this review.
NMIH earnings date and EPS evolution
QuarterReporting dateEstimated EPSActual EPSSurprise
2017-Q2-n/a0.1n/a
2017-Q32017-10-300.15n/an/a
2017-Q4-n/a0.2n/a
2018-Q12018-05-010.270.3425.9%
2018-Q22018-08-010.330.421.2%
2018-Q32018-10-300.410.4612.2%
2018-Q42019-02-120.450.462.2%
2019-Q1-n/an/an/a
2019-Q2-n/an/an/a
2019-Q3-n/an/an/a

Annual financial results

In 2018, NMI annual turnover boosted a super good 53.17% to $273.63 million USD from $178.64 marked in 2017. Likewise, its income margin (compared to sales) climbed to 39.44%, that is $107.93 million.

NMIH annual Sales and Income evolution
YearSalesYoYIncome/(margin)YoY
2013$7.09 M-$-55.18 M-778.3%-
2014$22 M213.23%$-48.91 M-220.2%-11.37%
2015$54 M141.50%$-27.79 M-51.8%-43.17%
2016$122 M127.31%$66 M54.0%-336.90%
2017$179 M46.53%$22 M12.3%-66.51%
2018$274 M53.17%$108 M39.4%389.46%

Quarterly financial results

NMI reported $79.80 million in revenues for 2018-Q4, a 20.36% improvement compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter earnings marked $35.52 million with a profit margin of 44.51%. Profit margin soared a 7.09% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was 37.42%. When comparing revenues to same quarter last year, NMI sales marked an extraordinary increase and rocketed a 56.12%.
NMIH quarterly Sales and Income evolution
QuarterSales1QoQ2Income1/(margin)QoQ2
2017-Q2$42 M-$6 M14.2%-
2017-Q3$48 M14.81%$12 M25.4%104.86%
2017-Q4$51 M5.49%$-2 M-3.5%-114.34%
2018-Q1$60 M17.33%$22 M37.3%-1,365.86%
2018-Q2$68 M12.66%$25 M37.4%12.91%
2018-Q3$66 M-1.87%$25 M37.4%-1.70%
2018-Q4$80 M20.36%$36 M44.5%43.16%
2019-Q1$76 M-5.23%$33 M43.5%-7.38%

NMI ownership

When you are planning to invest in shares of a company, it's always worth to check its ownership structure.

NMI shares owned by insiders (that is, founders, CEO, CTO, main executives or other management staff) currently counts a 1.64% of all shares.

Bearish positions for NMIH stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.

For a better context understanding, the following table shows ownership data compared to other related stocks:

NMIHAIGALLERIEESNT
Market cap$2.3 B$46.9 B$36.0 B$8.2 B$5.3 B
Total shares67.9 M870.0 M324.0 M46.2 M98.4 M
Float shares61.7 M868.8 M322.5 M25.1 M95.0 M
  - Institutional holdings (%)92.2%92.0%81.3%31.9%94.9%
  - Insider holdings (%)1.6%0.1%0.4%46.6%5.6%
Shares in short selling0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

NMI summary

Friday, November 15th, 2019
Open$34.03
Close$34.09
Day range$33.31 - $34.28
Previous close$33.89
Session gain0.59%
Average true range$1.16
50d mov avg$28.64
100d mov avg$28.01
200d mov avg$27.26
Daily patternlt06a
Weekly pattern lb01c

NMI performance

To measure stock performance is always good to compare with competitors or related stocks. For NMI, the benchmark is made against American International, Allstate, Erie Indemnity, Essent, HCI, Horace Mann Educators, MGIC Investment, National General and Radian.
Stock3m6m12m
NMIHNMI22.58%25.15%68.26%
AIGAmerican Internat...-0.15%4.19%29.11%
ALLAllstate8.16%17.34%26.73%
ERIEErie Indemnity-19.69%-12.48%34.33%
ESNTEssent13.83%13.91%33.86%
HCI 7.61%9.19%-13.18%
HMNHorace Mann Educa...1.29%13.76%14.56%
MTGMGIC Investment14.38%3.15%17.92%
NGHCNational General-11.45%-9.59%-17.98%
RDNRadian12.92%13.82%33.23%

NMI competitors

One check before trading any stock is to review a list of its competitors, in this case for NMI. We selected 9 companies as NMI competitors as they are in the same industry or have similar market objectives.