Microsoft stock: buy or sell?
Updated on:
August 19th, 2019
5
Microsoft Corporation develops, licenses, and supports software products, services, and devices worldwide. The company's Productivity and Business Processes segment offers Office 365 commercial products and services for businesses, including Office, Exchange, SharePoint, Skype for Business, and related Client Access Licenses (CALs); Office 365 consumer services, such as Skype, Outlook.
Should I buy Microsoft stock?
You can't be a successful trader if you don't follow a methodolgy or system that assist you in choosing companies and the correct market timing. Trading strategies are meant for helping you in the decision process of what stocks to choose and when is the best moment to buy them. There are thousands of trading strategies for you to choose, but at Stocks2.com we prefer those that are simple but successful.Currently, Microsoft stock doesn't match any of these trading strategies, so our recommendation is not to buy.
| Buy setup | Elegible |
|---|---|
| New all-time high | No |
| New 52 week high | No |
| Price crossing up 200d MA | No |
| 100d MA crossing up 200d MA | No |
Is Microsoft stock a buy?
Financial institutions and banks publish stock ratings everyday.
At Stocks2.com, we detected 15 ratings published for MSFT stock in the last month. The general sentiment of these ratings is bullish for MSFT stock, with 14 positive ratings.| Date | Analyst / Broker | Previous rating | Current rating |
| 2019-8-5 | Credit Suisse Group | n/a | Buy |
| 2019-7-25 | Argus | n/a | Buy |
| 2019-7-24 | Royal Bank of Canada | n/a | Buy |
| 2019-7-19 | Stifel Nicolaus | n/a | Buy |
| 2019-7-19 | Raymond James | n/a | Strong-Buy |
| 2019-7-19 | Oppenheimer | n/a | Outperform |
| 2019-7-19 | Morgan Stanley | n/a | Overweight |
| 2019-7-19 | Morgan Stanley | n/a | Overweight |
| 2019-7-19 | Macquarie | n/a | Outperform |
| 2019-7-19 | KeyCorp | n/a | Overweight |
| 2019-7-19 | JPMorgan Chase & Co. | n/a | Buy |
| 2019-7-19 | JPMorgan Chase & Co. | n/a | Buy |
| 2019-7-19 | DZ Bank | n/a | Buy |
| 2019-7-19 | Credit Suisse Group | n/a | Outperform |
| 2019-7-19 | Credit Suisse Group | n/a | Outperform |
Microsoft stock analysis
Daily outlook
The tech giant soared a beatiful 1.67% and closed at $138.41.
The tech giant soared a beatiful 1.67% and closed at $138.41. MSFT is soaring again after a 4.80% correction from its last top on August/9 at $138.92. On Friday MSFT price bounced up over the SMA of 50 days demonstrating to be a significant support for this stock. On July 26th, MSFT hit a new all time high, pushing higher than on Jul/24 tops. Check different trading setups that use ATHs as triggers.
Weekly outlook
Microsoft shares appreciated 1.67% this week, ending at $138.41.
MSFT marked an uptrend of rising tops and rising bottoms. Since its last top late July at $141.21, price slid and bounced up back from $130.35. Breaking down under $130.35 would cancel the current uptrend and it might test lower supports. Note that $141.21 might act as a resistance line. Not so far away is the last price record the tech giant marked late July. Early February MSFT price bounced up over the SMA of 40 weeks that acted as support stopping new slides.
Microsoft stock price history
Microsoft IPO was on March 13th, 1986 at $0.06 per share1. Since then, MSFT stock grew a 230,583.30%, with a yearly average of 6,987.40%. If you had invested right after MSFT's IPO a $1,000 in Microsoft stock in 1986, it would worth $2,305,833.00 today.
1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.
Microsoft stock historical price chart
MSFT stock reached all-time highs on July/26 with a price of $141.21.
Microsoft stock price target is $156.40
Predicting the price evolution of a stock or any financial instrument in a reliable and repeatable way is probably impossible. However, financial institutions invest time and resources to provide the most accurated estimations to help investors to make their decisions. The accuracy of these stock price predictions is not very high, and you should not blindly believe and make decisions only based on what this ratings or price target predictions say. We found 14 price predictions for MSFT stock published in the last month:| Date | Analyst / Broker | Action | Previous target | Current target | Diff |
| 2019-8-5 | Credit Suisse Group | Set Price Target | n/a | $155.00 | - |
| 2019-7-25 | Argus | Raises Target | $5.26 | $158.00 | 2903.8% |
| 2019-7-24 | Royal Bank of Canada | Set Price Target | n/a | $153.00 | - |
| 2019-7-19 | Stifel Nicolaus | Raises Target | $150.00 | $155.00 | 3.3% |
| 2019-7-19 | Raymond James | Raises Target | $160.00 | $163.00 | 1.9% |
| 2019-7-19 | Oppenheimer | Raises Target | $145.00 | $160.00 | 10.3% |
| 2019-7-19 | Morgan Stanley | Reiterates | $145.00 | $155.00 | 6.9% |
| 2019-7-19 | Morgan Stanley | Raises Target | $145.00 | $155.00 | 6.9% |
| 2019-7-19 | Macquarie | Raises Target | $150.00 | $160.00 | 6.7% |
| 2019-7-19 | KeyCorp | Raises Target | $143.00 | $155.00 | 8.4% |
| 2019-7-19 | JPMorgan Chase & Co. | Set Price Target | n/a | $155.00 | - |
| 2019-7-19 | JPMorgan Chase & Co. | Reiterates | n/a | $155.00 | - |
| 2019-7-19 | Credit Suisse Group | Reiterates | $145.00 | $155.00 | 6.9% |
| 2019-7-19 | Credit Suisse Group | Raises Target | $145.00 | $155.00 | 6.9% |
| (in average) | $133.30 | $156.40 | 17.0% |
Financials and fundamental analysis
Earnings date and Earnings per Share
After posting its last earnings report on January, Microsoft . Unfortunately, reported EPS is not yet available in our database.| Quarter | Reporting date | Estimated EPS | Actual EPS | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-Q2 | - | n/a | 0.86 | n/a |
| 2017-Q3 | 2017-10-26 | 0.72 | 0.84 | 16.7% |
| 2017-Q4 | 2018-01-31 | 0.87 | 0.96 | 10.3% |
| 2018-Q1 | 2018-04-26 | 0.85 | 0.95 | 11.8% |
| 2018-Q2 | 2018-07-19 | 1.07 | 1.13 | 5.6% |
| 2018-Q3 | 2018-10-24 | 0.96 | 1.14 | 18.8% |
| 2018-Q4 | 2019-01-30 | 1.09 | 1.1 | 0.9% |
| 2019-Q1 | - | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 2019-Q2 | - | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 2019-Q3 | - | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Annual financial results
Compared to 2017, last anual turnover report draw an exceptional growth of 22.69% to $110,360.00 M dollars. In contrast, its profit margin (compared to revenues) fell to 15.02%, that is $16,571.00 million. Microsoft fiscal year ends in June, and to evaluate its evolution since then, we estimate annual sales and income figures by adding results from the last 4 quarters. This is called TTM (or Twelve Trailing Months). So, Microsoft TTM sales up to December 2018 were $118,459.00 and earnings $33,541.00 million USD. When comparing this TTM figures with the last reported annuality, we can review the tech giant business evolution since June 2018: Annual sales up to December, compared to lastest yearly report, soared a shining 7.34%. Regarding profit margin, Microsoft boosted 13.30% to 15.02%| Year | Sales | YoY | Income/(margin) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | $77,650 M | - | $21,860 M28.2% | - |
| 2014 | $86,730 M | 11.69% | $22,070 M25.4% | 0.96% |
| 2015 | $93,580 M | 7.90% | $12,193 M13.0% | -44.75% |
| 2016 | $91,154 M | -2.59% | $20,539 M22.5% | 68.45% |
| 2017 | $89,950 M | -1.32% | $21,204 M23.6% | 3.24% |
| 2018 | $110,360 M | 22.69% | $16,571 M15.0% | -21.85% |
| TTM | $118,459 M | 7.34% | $33,541 M28.3% | 102.41% |
Quarterly financial results
Microsoft posted $32,471.00 million in sales for 2018-Q4, a 11.65% improvement compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter income marked $8,420.00 M with a profit margin of 25.93%. Profit margin slightly fell a -4.41% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was 30.34%. When comparing turnover to same quarter last year, Microsoft sales marked an outstanding gain and climbed a 12.29%.| Quarter | Sales1 | QoQ2 | Income1/(margin) | QoQ2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-Q2 | $23,180 M | - | $6,510 M28.1% | - |
| 2017-Q3 | $24,430 M | 5.39% | $6,580 M26.9% | 1.08% |
| 2017-Q4 | $28,918 M | 18.37% | $-6,302 M-21.8% | -195.78% |
| 2018-Q1 | $26,819 M | -7.26% | $7,424 M27.7% | -217.80% |
| 2018-Q2 | $30,085 M | 12.18% | $8,873 M29.5% | 19.52% |
| 2018-Q3 | $29,084 M | -3.33% | $8,824 M30.3% | -0.55% |
| 2018-Q4 | $32,471 M | 11.65% | $8,420 M25.9% | -4.58% |
| 2019-Q1 | $30,571 M | -5.85% | $8,809 M28.8% | 4.62% |
Microsoft ownership
When you are planning to buy shares of a stock, it's worth to have a look its ownership structure.Microsoft shares owned by insiders (that is, founders, CEO, CTO, main executives or other management staff) currently counts a 1.41% of all shares.
In case of Microsoft stock, 74.70% of its shares are held by institutions (mutual funds, pension funds, big banks and other large financial institutions). Bearish positions for MSFT stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.
The following table compares ownership indicators for other stocks related to Microsoft:
| MSFT | AAPL | CSCO | GOOGL | HPQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $1,060.2 B | $949.9 B | $201.0 B | $353.1 B | $28.8 B |
| Total shares | 7,660.0 M | 4,600.0 M | 4,280.0 M | 299.4 M | 1,510.0 M |
| Float shares | 7,520.0 M | 4,260.0 M | 4,280.0 M | 601.6 M | 1,500.0 M |
| - Institutional holdings (%) | 74.7% | 61.0% | 77.3% | 81.0% | 83.9% |
| - Insider holdings (%) | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Shares in short selling | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Microsoft summary
| Monday, August 19th, 2019 | |
|---|---|
| Open | $137.85 |
| Close | $138.41 |
| Day range | $136.88 - $138.55 |
| Previous close | $136.13 |
| Session gain | 1.67% |
| Average true range | $3.68 |
| 50d mov avg | $135.99 |
| 100d mov avg | $129.85 |
| 200d mov avg | $118.18 |
| Daily pattern | lb01a |
| Weekly pattern | lb03a |
Microsoft performance
Stocks performance is always measured in comparision to the market or competitors and related stocks in the same industry. We selected Apple, Cisco Systems, Alphabet, HP, International Business Machines, Oracle and as the bechmarking frame for Microsoft stock.| Stock | 3m | 6m | 12m |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSFTMicrosoft | 10.01% | 25.61% | 29.69% |
| AAPLApple | 9.68% | 22.10% | -3.62% |
| CSCOCisco Systems | -16.14% | -3.79% | 5.17% |
| GOOGLAlphabet | 0.89% | 5.32% | -3.01% |
| HPQHP | 1.11% | -16.68% | -19.93% |
| IBMInternational Bus... | 0.75% | -0.79% | -3.94% |
| ORCLOracle | 2.44% | 3.46% | 11.12% |
| SAP | -6.14% | 12.00% | 0.34% |
Microsoft competitors
One check before trading any stock is to review a list of its competitors, in this case for Microsoft. We selected 7 companies as Microsoft competitors as they are in the same industry or have similar market objectives.- Apple (AAPL)
- Cisco Systems (CSCO)
- Alphabet (GOOGL)
- HP (HPQ)
- International Business Machines (IBM)
- Oracle (ORCL)
- (SAP)
Latest Microsoft stock news
- InvestorPlaceMicrosoft Stock Is Worth a Buy … If You Wait for a DiscountAugust 1, 2019
- InvestorPlaceA Huge Second Quarter Is Just the Beginning for Microsoft StockJuly 30, 2019
- InvestorPlaceMicrosoft Earnings: The Big Story Everyone MissedJuly 30, 2019
- InvestorPlaceIs Microsoft Stock the Safest Trade in Big Tech Right Now?July 29, 2019
- Seeking AlphaWhy Microsoft Is Still The Best Tech Stock To Own Right NowJuly 25, 2019