MFA stock: buy or sell?

MFA stock price: $7.66 -0.39% At close on December 6th, 2019

Updated on:
December 6th, 2019

4

Shares of MFA Financial declined an ugly -0.39% and closed at $7.66.

MFA Financial, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) in the United States. The company invests in residential mortgage assets, including non-agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), agency MBS, residential whole loans, credit risk transfer securities, and mortgage servicing rights related assets.

Should I buy MFA stock?

Trading stocks requires experience and discipline, and your buying and selling decisions must come following a methodology. That's why is so important to define your own trading plan that fits your character as inversor. There are thousands of trading strategies for you to choose, but at Stocks2.com we prefer those that are simple but successful.

None of our preferred buy setups matches with MFA Financial stock situation right now, hence this is not a suitable entry point.

Buy setupElegible
New all-time highNo
New 52 week highNo
Price crossing up 200d MANo
100d MA crossing up 200d MANo
This doesn't mean MFA will slide in coming sessions, or it will not rise higher. Simply, it doesn't match our recommended trading systems.

Is MFA Financial stock a buy?

Banks and financial institutions post stock ratings everyday. Unfortunately, we couldn't find any rating for MFA stock for the last 30 days.

MFA stock analysis

Daily outlook

MFA Financial shares declined -0.39% to $7.66 on Dec 6th.

MFA Financial declined an ugly -0.39% and closed at $7.66. On September MFA price bounced up over the SMA of 100 days demonstrating to be a significant support for this stock. Since August when SMA50d and SMA100d crossed up, MFA price gained $0.41 per share (5.66%). On November/11, MFA hit a new all time high, pushing higher than on November 8th tops. Check different trading setups that use ATHs as triggers.

MFA stock chart (daily)

Weekly outlook

MFA Financial shares stayed stable 0.00% this week, ending at $7.66.

MFA Financial stock is trading in the range of its last top and last bottom. Loosing would mean breaking the current uptrend. Breakdowns under last bottom are selling point signals for some trading strategies. Not so far away is the last all-time high MFA Financial marked by mid November. Since SMA20d and SMA40w crossed up early April, MFA price climbed $0.78 per share (11.34%). Since mid January when MFA stock price broke up the SMA40w line, it gained $1.17 (18.03%).

MFA stock chart (weekly)

MFA stock price history

MFA stock went public on April 13th, 1998 with a price of $0.791. Since then, MFA stock grew a 869.60%, with an average of 41.40% per year. If you had invested right after MFA's IPO a $1,000 in MFA stock in 1998, it would worth $8,696.00 today.

1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.

MFA stock historical price chart

MFA stock reached all-time highs on Nov/11 with a price of $7.75.

MFA stock price target

Nobody can reliably foresee how stock prices may evolve in the future. However, financial institutions invest time and resources to provide the most accurated estimations to help investors to make their decisions. We do not recommend to follow these stock price predictions without a critical thinking from your side, as their accuracy is usually low. For the last month we have not found any price prediction for MFA Financial stock by any trusted analyst.

Financials and fundamental analysis

Earnings date and Earnings per Share

MFA Financial disappointed experts on February when it posted an Earnings per Share (EPS) of $0.13 when the analysts' forecast was $0.17.
MFA earnings date and EPS evolution
QuarterReporting dateEstimated EPSActual EPSSurprise
2017-Q1-n/a0.2n/a
2017-Q2-n/a0.2n/a
2017-Q32017-11-020.180.15-16.7%
2017-Q42018-02-150.20.2420.0%
2018-Q12018-05-080.180.211.1%
2018-Q22018-08-020.20.17-15.0%
2018-Q32018-11-060.180.195.6%
2018-Q42019-02-210.170.13-23.5%
2019-Q1-n/an/an/a
2019-Q2-n/an/an/a

Annual financial results

In 2018, MFA Financial annual revenues dropped a fateful -6.49% to $347.88 M USD from $372.03 marked in 2017. However, its earnings margin (compared to revenues) stayed constant to 86.76%, that is $301.80 million.

MFA annual Sales and Income evolution
YearSalesYoYIncome/(margin)YoY
2013$509 M-$298 M58.5%-
2014$359 M-29.51%$314 M87.4%5.32%
2015$355 M-0.98%$313 M88.2%-0.09%
2016$358 M0.85%$313 M87.3%-0.18%
2017$372 M3.84%$322 M86.7%3.11%
2018$348 M-6.49%$302 M86.8%-6.39%

Quarterly financial results

MFA Financial posted $72.73 million in revenues for 2018-Q4, a -25.90% less compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter earnings marked $60.88 M with a profit margin of 83.70%. Profit margin eased a -5.07% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was 88.77%. When comparing sales to same quarter last year, MFA Financial sales marked a hair-raising slide and plummed a -38.04%.
MFA quarterly Sales and Income evolution
QuarterSales1QoQ2Income1/(margin)QoQ2
2017-Q1$142 M-$78 M54.6%-
2017-Q2$143 M0.38%$79 M55.6%2.38%
2017-Q3$85 M-40.52%$64 M75.1%-19.72%
2017-Q4$117 M38.18%$101 M85.7%57.66%
2018-Q1$94 M-19.95%$83 M88.7%-17.10%
2018-Q2$83 M-11.66%$70 M84.8%-15.59%
2018-Q3$98 M18.24%$87 M88.8%23.78%
2018-Q4$73 M-25.90%$61 M83.7%-30.13%

MFA Financial ownership

When you are planning to invest in a company, it's always worth to have a look its ownership structure.

Management staff in all public traded companies that hold equity is required to report every transaction to the SEC. For MFA Financial, 0.53% of all outstanding shares are owned by its staff.

Bearish positions for MFA stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.

The following table compares ownership indicators for other stocks related to MFA Financial:

MFAAGNCANHCMOIVR
Market cap$3.5 B$9.4 B$358.8 M$748.4 M$2.4 B
Total shares451.8 M540.9 M98.9 M94.6 M142.8 M
Float shares448.5 M538.1 M90.4 M92.8 M142.4 M
  - Institutional holdings (%)83.5%70.1%54.1%0.7%60.0%
  - Insider holdings (%)0.5%0.4%1.9%89.3%0.3%
Shares in short selling0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

MFA summary

Friday, December 6th, 2019
Open$7.69
Close$7.66
Day range$7.66 - $7.70
Previous close$7.69
Session gain-0.39%
Average true range$0.06
50d mov avg$7.57
100d mov avg$7.33
200d mov avg$7.11
Daily patternlb11a
Weekly pattern lt06a

MFA Financial performance

Performance as an absolute value is never valid if it's not benchmarked against competitors or related stocks in the industry. We compared MFA Financial against AGNC Investment, Anworth Mortgage Asset, Capstead Mortgage and INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL in the following table:
Stock3m6m12m
MFAMFA Financial8.19%13.15%19.69%
AGNCAGNC Investment18.32%9.56%9.28%
ANHAnworth Mortgage ...18.24%-1.36%-9.25%
CMOCapstead Mortgage13.00%0.76%8.95%
IVRINVESCO MORTGAGE ...13.12%9.80%18.57%

MFA Financial competitors

We picked a few stocks to conform a list of MFA Financial competitors to examine if you are interested in investing in MFA: