MFA stock: buy or sell?

MFA stock price: $1.86 9.41% At close on March 27th, 2020

Updated on:
March 27th, 2020

1

On Tuesday MFA plunged a hair-raising -650.00%. MFA Financial shares climbed 9.41% to $1.86 yesterday. Counting Friday, it's been 3 climbing days in a row, adding $1.50 or 55.56%.

MFA Financial, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) in the United States. The company invests in residential mortgage assets, including non-agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), agency MBS, residential whole loans, credit risk transfer securities, and mortgage servicing rights related assets.

Should I buy MFA stock?

You can't be a successful trader if you don't follow a methodolgy or system that assist you in choosing companies and the correct market timing. Trading strategies are meant for helping you in the decision process of what stocks to choose and when is the best time to buy them. There are thousands of trading strategies for you to choose, but at Stocks2.com we prefer those that are simple but successful.

Currently, MFA Financial stock doesn't match any of these trading strategies, so our recommendation is not to buy.

Buy setupElegible
New all-time highNo
New 52 week highNo
Price crossing up 200d MANo
100d MA crossing up 200d MANo
This doesn't mean MFA will slide in coming sessions, or it will not rise higher. Simply, it doesn't match our recommended trading systems.

Is MFA Financial stock a buy?

Financial institutions and banks publish stock ratings everyday. Unfortunately, we couldn't detect any rating for MFA stock for the last month.

MFA stock analysis

Daily outlook

MFA Financial ended yesterday at $1.86 and climbed a super good 9.41%.

MFA Financial shares climbed 9.41% to $1.86 yesterday. Since price and SMA200d lines crossed down on Mar 9th, MFA fell $-5.54 per share (-74.86%). MFA marked a lower low and a lower high in the short term, defining a downward trend. Climbing above $4.51 would break this short term down trend and open possibilities for reversing this situation. On February/20, MFA hit a new all time high, pushing higher than on January tops. Check different trading setups that use ATHs as triggers.

MFA stock chart (daily)

Weekly outlook

Shares of MFA Financial closed this week at $1.86 and collapsed a frightening -48.33%. This was the third red week in a row, sliding in full a -76.63%.

Once MFA Financial stock failed to resist above the support, it inevitably slid deeper. Not so far away is the last price record MFA Financial marked by mid February, but since then it dropped a 77.01%. Since price and 40-weeks moving average lines crossed down early March, MFA fell $-5.54 per share (-74.86%). Trading stocks that are under the 40-weeks (that is, 200-days) moving average mark is not recommended by many experts, as it indicates that the stock has not enough institutional support.

MFA stock chart (weekly)

MFA stock price history

MFA stock went public on April 13th, 1998 with a price of $0.781. Since then, MFA stock surged a 138.50%, with an average of 6.60% per year. If you had invested right after MFA's IPO a $1,000 in MFA stock in 1998, it would worth $1,385.00 today.

1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.

MFA stock historical price chart

MFA stock reached all-time highs on February 20th with a price of $8.09.

MFA stock price target

Predicting the price evolution of a stock or any financial instrument in a reliable and repeatable way is probably impossible. However, many stock price predictions are published every day by banks, financial institutions and independent analysts. The accuracy of these stock price predictions is not very high, and you should not blindly believe and make decisions only based on what this ratings or price target predictions say. For the last month we have not detected any price forecast for MFA Financial stock by any trusted analyst.

Financials and fundamental analysis

Earnings date and Earnings per Share

MFA Financial let down analysts when it posted an Earnings per Share (EPS) of $0.13 when the analysts' forecast was $0.17.
MFA earnings date and EPS evolution
QuarterReporting dateEstimated EPSActual EPSSurprise
2017-Q1-n/a0.2n/a
2017-Q2-n/a0.2n/a
2017-Q32017-11-020.180.15-16.7%
2017-Q42018-02-150.20.2420.0%
2018-Q12018-05-080.180.211.1%
2018-Q22018-08-020.20.17-15.0%
2018-Q32018-11-060.180.195.6%
2018-Q42019-02-210.170.13-23.5%
2019-Q1-n/an/an/a
2019-Q2-n/an/an/a

Annual financial results

In 2018, MFA Financial annual turnover slipped an awful -6.49% to $347.88 million dollars from $372.03 marked in 2017. However, its earnings margin (compared to sales) remained constant to 86.76%, that is $301.80 million.

MFA annual Sales and Income evolution
YearSalesYoYIncome/(margin)YoY
2013$509 M-$298 M58.5%-
2014$359 M-29.51%$314 M87.4%5.32%
2015$355 M-0.98%$313 M88.2%-0.09%
2016$358 M0.85%$313 M87.3%-0.18%
2017$372 M3.84%$322 M86.7%3.11%
2018$348 M-6.49%$302 M86.8%-6.39%

Quarterly financial results

MFA Financial reported $72.73 million in sales for 2018-Q4, a -25.90% less compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter earnings marked $60.88 million with a profit margin of 83.70%. Profit margin eased a -5.07% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was 88.77%. When comparing revenues to same quarter last year, MFA Financial sales marked a frightening decrease and plummed a -38.04%.
MFA quarterly Sales and Income evolution
QuarterSales1QoQ2Income1/(margin)QoQ2
2017-Q1$142 M-$78 M54.6%-
2017-Q2$143 M0.38%$79 M55.6%2.38%
2017-Q3$85 M-40.52%$64 M75.1%-19.72%
2017-Q4$117 M38.18%$101 M85.7%57.66%
2018-Q1$94 M-19.95%$83 M88.7%-17.10%
2018-Q2$83 M-11.66%$70 M84.8%-15.59%
2018-Q3$98 M18.24%$87 M88.8%23.78%
2018-Q4$73 M-25.90%$61 M83.7%-30.13%

MFA Financial ownership

When you are planning to buy a company, it's always worth to check its ownership structure.

Management staff in all public traded companies that hold equity is required to report every transaction to the SEC. For MFA Financial, 0.58% of all outstanding shares are owned by its staff.

In case of MFA Financial stock, 79.73% of its shares are held by institutions (mutual funds, pension funds, big banks and other large financial institutions). Bearish positions for MFA stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.

For a better understanding, the next table shows ownership data compared to other related stocks:

MFA
Market cap$842.8 M
Total shares453.1 M
Float shares449.4 M
  - Institutional holdings (%)79.7%
  - Insider holdings (%)0.6%
Shares in short selling0.0%

MFA summary

Friday, March 27th, 2020
Open$1.93
Close$1.86
Day range$1.55 - $2.26
Previous close$1.70
Session gain9.41%
Average true range$1.14
50d mov avg$6.65
100d mov avg$7.11
200d mov avg$7.05
Daily patternlb06a
Weekly pattern lt06c

MFA Financial performance

To better understand MFA Financial performance you must compare its gains with other related stocks in same sector or industry. In the following table, we compare MFA Financial performance to :
Stock3m6m12m
MFAMFA Financial-75.91%-74.24%-72.28%

MFA Financial competitors

Unfortunately, we could not find any public company that could be defined as MFA Financial competitor. This doesn't mean MFA Financial does not have any competitor in the market, it's just we could not detected it.