MCD stock: buy or sell?

MCD stock price: $214.66 -2.20% At close on August 23rd, 2019

Updated on:
August 23rd, 2019

5

McDonald's shares fell -2.20% to $214.66 yesterday.

McDonald's Corporation operates and franchises McDonald's restaurants in the United States and internationally. Its restaurants offer various food products, soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages, as well as breakfast menu.

Should I buy MCD stock?

Trading stocks requires experience and discipline, and your buying and selling decisions must come following a methodology. That's why is so important to choose your own trading strategy that fits your character as inversor. At Stocks2.com, we like to use very simple but trusted and powerful trend following trading strategies. Simple things usually work the best.

Currently, McDonald's stock doesn't match any of these trading strategies, so our recommendation is not to buy.

Buy setupElegible
New all-time highNo
New 52 week highNo
Price crossing up 200d MANo
100d MA crossing up 200d MANo
This doesn't mean MCD will fall in coming sessions, or it will not rise higher. Simply, it doesn't match our recommended trading systems.

Is McDonald's stock a buy?

Banks and financial institutions post stock ratings everyday. At Stocks2.com, we detected 15 ratings published for MCD stock in the last 30 days.

The general sentiment of these ratings is bullish for MCD stock, with 12 positive ratings.
Is MCD a good stock to buy?
DateAnalyst / BrokerPrevious ratingCurrent rating
2019-8-13MKM Partnersn/aBuy
2019-7-30DZ BankBuyHold
2019-7-30Credit Suisse Groupn/aOutperform
2019-7-29Wells Fargo & Con/aOutperform
2019-7-29UBS Groupn/aNeutral
2019-7-29Stifel Nicolausn/aHold
2019-7-29Stephensn/aOverweight
2019-7-29Robert W. Bairdn/aOutperform
2019-7-29KeyCorpn/aOverweight
2019-7-29Goldman Sachs Groupn/aBuy
2019-7-29BMO Capital Marketsn/aOutperform
2019-7-26Sanford C. Bernsteinn/aBuy
2019-7-18Morgan Stanleyn/aOverweight
2019-7-18Cowenn/aOutperform
2019-7-15Wells Fargo & Con/aOutperform

MCD stock analysis

Daily outlook

Shares of McDonald's closed yesterday at $214.66 and fell a rough -2.20%.

Shares of McDonald's ended yesterday at $214.66 and fell a rough -2.20%. On Aug 9th, MCD hit a new all time high, pushing higher than on August 8th tops. Check different trading setups that use ATHs as triggers.

MCD stock chart (daily)

Weekly outlook

McDonald's depreciated an unpleasant -1.74% this week.

McDonald's stock is drawing an uptrend with rising tops and bottoms. Now trading in between its last bottom and last top, MCD might consolidate in a flat-base, waiting to break out over or down under . Not so far away is the last all-time high McDonald's marked early August. Since SMA20d and SMA40w crossed up early October, MCD price climbed $50.41 per share (30.69%). Since mid September 2018 when MCD stock price broke up the SMA40w line, it gained $56.74 (35.93%).

MCD stock chart (weekly)

MCD stock price history

MCD stock historical price chart

MCD stock reached all-time highs on August 9th with a price of $221.93.

MCD stock price target is $231.10

Nobody can reliably foresee how stock prices may evolve in the future. However, banks and other financial institutions analysts, with the help of lots of data and algorithms do their best to predict the stock prices movement. You should not follow the analysts' MCD stock price predictions in the hope that they will be met as they may be wrong and not met. For the last 30 days we found 14 price targets for MCD stock:
MCD stock price predictions
DateAnalyst / BrokerActionPrevious targetCurrent targetDiff
2019-8-13MKM PartnersInitiatesn/a$250.00-
2019-7-30DZ BankReiterates$222.00$220.00-0.9%
2019-7-30Credit Suisse GroupReiterates$230.00$236.002.6%
2019-7-29Wells Fargo & CoRaises Target$235.00$237.000.9%
2019-7-29UBS GroupRaises Target$203.00$218.007.4%
2019-7-29Stifel NicolausRaises Target$200.00$210.005%
2019-7-29StephensRaises Target$220.00$230.004.5%
2019-7-29Robert W. BairdRaises Target$225.00$230.002.2%
2019-7-29KeyCorpReiterates$215.00$235.009.3%
2019-7-29Goldman Sachs GroupInitiatesn/a$250.00-
2019-7-29BMO Capital MarketsRaises Targetn/a$230.00-
2019-7-18Morgan StanleyRaises Target$210.00$220.004.8%
2019-7-18CowenReiterates$225.00$235.004.4%
2019-7-15Wells Fargo & CoReiterates$218.00$235.007.8%
(in average)$218.50$231.106.0%
Moving in a range from $250.00 and $210.00, the price forecast for MCD stock is $231.10. In average, analysts' outlook on MCD price target is positive, increasing the target by a 6.00% from previous estimations.

Financials and fundamental analysis

Earnings date and Earnings per Share

Since April, when McDonald's posted its last earnings report, it rose a great 9.37%. As soon as we get its posted EPS from the earnings report, we will extend this review.
MCD earnings date and EPS evolution
QuarterReporting dateEstimated EPSActual EPSSurprise
2017-Q2-n/a1.63n/a
2017-Q32017-10-241.771.76-0.6%
2017-Q42018-01-301.591.717.5%
2018-Q12018-04-301.671.797.2%
2018-Q22018-07-261.921.993.6%
2018-Q32018-10-231.982.16.1%
2018-Q42019-01-301.91.973.7%
2019-Q12019-04-291.81n/an/a
2019-Q2-n/an/an/a
2019-Q3-n/an/an/a

Annual financial results

Compared to 2017, last anual turnover report draw a shocking drop down of -7.87% to $21,025.20 million dollars. In contrary, its profit margin (compared to sales) escalated to 28.18%, that is $5,924.30 million.

To have an up to date picture of the financial situation of McDonald's, we have calculated the trailing twelve month (TTM) sales and income figures. TTM values are the sum of the last 4 quarters and aproximate to an annual fiscal report ending in 2019-Q1 that can be compared to 2018 fiscal year results. Annual McDonald's TTM sales up to March 2019 were $20,841.90 and earnings were $5,877.30 million USD. When comparing this TTM figures with the last reported annuality, we can review McDonald's business evolution since December 2018: Annual turnover up to March, compared to lastest yearly report, stayed stable a lame -0.87%. Regarding profit margin, McDonald's stayed stable 0.02% to 28.18%

MCD annual Sales and Income evolution
YearSalesYoYIncome/(margin)YoY
2013$28,110 M-$5,590 M19.9%-
2014$27,441 M-2.38%$4,758 M17.3%-14.89%
2015$25,413 M-7.39%$4,529 M17.8%-4.80%
2016$24,622 M-3.11%$4,687 M19.0%3.47%
2017$22,820 M-7.32%$5,192 M22.8%10.79%
2018$21,025 M-7.87%$5,924 M28.2%14.10%
TTM $20,842 M-0.87%$5,877 M28.2%-0.79%

Quarterly financial results

McDonald's posted $4,955.60 million in sales for 2019-Q1, a -4.02% less compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter earnings marked $1,328.40 million with a profit margin of 26.81%. Profit margin stayed constant a -0.61% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was 27.41%. When comparing revenues to same quarter last year, McDonald's sales marked an ugly slide and slightly fell a -3.57%. Looking back to recent quarterly results, McDonald's posted 2 negative quarters in a row.
MCD quarterly Sales and Income evolution
QuarterSales1QoQ2Income1/(margin)QoQ2
2017-Q2$6,050 M-$1,400 M23.1%-
2017-Q3$5,750 M-4.96%$1,880 M32.7%34.29%
2017-Q4$5,340 M-7.13%$699 M13.1%-62.84%
2018-Q1$5,139 M-3.77%$1,375 M26.8%96.85%
2018-Q2$5,354 M4.18%$1,496 M27.9%8.79%
2018-Q3$5,369 M0.29%$1,637 M30.5%9.42%
2018-Q4$5,163 M-3.84%$1,415 M27.4%-13.56%
2019-Q1$4,956 M-4.02%$1,328 M26.8%-6.14%

McDonald's ownership

When you are planning to buy a company, it's worth to check its ownership structure.

McDonald's shares owned by insiders (that is, founders, CEO, CTO, main executives or other management staff) currently counts a 0.06% of all shares.

In case of McDonald's stock, 69.97% of its shares are held by institutions (mutual funds, pension funds, big banks and other large financial institutions). Bearish positions for MCD stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.

The following table compares ownership indicators for other stocks related to McDonald's:

MCDARCOCMGGTIMJACK
Market cap$163.9 B$843.0 M$22.3 B$23.7 M$2.5 B
Total shares763.6 M123.6 M27.7 M12.5 M29.5 M
Float shares763.1 M116.4 M24.1 M9.5 M24.1 M
  - Institutional holdings (%)70.0%65.8%62.7%32.1%105.9%
  - Insider holdings (%)0.1%5.6%2.5%6.8%1.8%
Shares in short selling0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

MCD summary

Friday, August 23rd, 2019
Open$219.17
Close$214.66
Day range$213.89 - $219.47
Previous close$219.49
Session gain-2.20%
Average true range$3.61
50d mov avg$212.57
100d mov avg$204.30
200d mov avg$192.08
Daily pattern
Weekly pattern lt06a

McDonald's performance

Stocks performance is always measured in comparision to the market or competitors and related stocks in the same industry. In the following table, we compare McDonald's to Arcos Dorados, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Good Times Restaurants, Jack In The Box, Starbucks, Carrols Restaurant, Wendy's and Yum! Brands:
Stock3m6m12m
MCDMcDonald's9.18%18.63%38.04%
ARCOArcos Dorados8.60%-19.48%1.49%
CMGChipotle Mexican ...21.56%34.19%54.68%
GTIMGood Times Restau...-12.90%-30.00%-61.03%
JACKJack In The Box8.44%7.84%-0.71%
SBUXStarbucks24.84%33.95%82.96%
TASTCarrols Restauran...-22.29%-38.61%-57.72%
WENWendy's11.71%20.32%20.94%
YUMYum! Brands14.59%21.83%39.31%

McDonald's competitors

We selected a few stocks to conform a list of McDonald's competitors to check if you are interested in investing in MCD: