Lumentum stock: buy or sell?
September 20th, 2019
Lumentum Holdings Inc. manufactures and sells optical and photonic products in the Americas, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.
Should I buy Lumentum stock?You can't be a successful trader if you don't follow a methodolgy or system that assist you in choosing companies and the correct market timing. Trading strategies are meant for helping you in the decision process of what stocks to pick and when is the best time to buy them. At Stocks2.com, we like to use very simple but trusted and powerful trend following trading strategies. Simple things usually work the best.
None of our preferred buy setups matches with Lumentum stock situation right now, therefore this is not a suitable entry point.
|New all-time high||No|
|New 52 week high||No|
|Price crossing up 200d MA||No|
|100d MA crossing up 200d MA||No|
Is Lumentum stock a buy?
Everyday, hundreds of stock ratings are published by financial analysts to indicate a particular stock's attractiveness.At Stocks2.com, we gathered 15 ratings published for LITE stock in the last month. The general sentiment of these ratings is bullish for LITE stock, with 14 positive ratings.
|Date||Analyst / Broker||Previous rating||Current rating|
|2019-8-9||Piper Jaffray Companies||n/a||Overweight|
|2019-8-9||Piper Jaffray Companies||n/a||Overweight|
|2019-8-9||Needham & Company LLC||Strong-Buy||Strong-Buy|
|2019-5-21||Piper Jaffray Companies||n/a||Overweight|
|2019-5-21||Jefferies Financial Group||n/a||Buy|
|2019-3-29||Jefferies Financial Group||Buy||Buy|
Lumentum stock analysis
Lumentum shares grew 0.67% to $58.84 today.
Lumentum grew a tiny 0.67% and closed at $58.84. Since price and SMA200d lines crossed up on June, LITE climbed $7.98 (15.69%). Since SMA100d and SMA200d crossed up on June, LITE price climbed $12.71 per share (27.55%). From a daily outlook perspective, LITE is drawing an uptrend of rising tops and rising bottoms. Since its last top on Sep/12 at $61.70, price slid and found support around $57.74. Breaking down under $57.74 would cancel the current uptrend and it might slide further to test lower supports. Note that $61.70 might act as a resistance line. Trading the long side, we should wait to a new breakout over $61.70 to find the next buy point.
Shares of Lumentum remained constant a neutral -0.27% this week. Early August LITE skyrocketed an astounding 9.35% in just one week. Late July LITE collapsed a frightening -8.81% in just one week.
Having descending tops is not good news for the long side. Although it's only a warning signal, investors should be on alert during next weeks to identify possible new signals. Falling under its previous bottom at would confirm the downtrend path. Since price and SMA40w lines crossed up late June, LITE climbed $9.47 (19.18%). Since SMA20d and SMA40w crossed up late May, LITE price climbed $14.43 per share (32.49%).
Lumentum stock price history
Lumentum IPO was on July 23rd, 2015 at $18.60 per share1. Since then, LITE stock surged a 216.30%, with a yearly average of 54.10%. If you had invested $1,000 in Lumentum stock in 2015, it would worth $2,163.00 today.
1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.
Lumentum stock historical price chart
LITE stock reached 52-week highs on October at $63.95, and all-time highs 2018-03-12 with a price of 74.4.
Lumentum stock price target is $68.60How much a stock will be priced tomorrow or next week is quite unpredictable However, many stock price predictions are published every day by banks, financial institutions and independent analysts. We do not recommend to follow these stock price predictions without a critical thinking from your side, as their accuracy is usually low. We detected 15 price targets for Lumentum stock published in the last month:
|Date||Analyst / Broker||Action||Previous target||Current target||Diff|
|2019-8-9||Piper Jaffray Companies||Reiterates||$68.00||$72.00||5.9%|
|2019-8-9||Piper Jaffray Companies||Raises Target||$68.00||$72.00||5.9%|
|2019-8-9||Needham & Company LLC||Reiterates||$62.00||$70.00||12.9%|
|2019-8-9||Craig Hallum||Raises Target||$60.00||$75.00||25%|
|2019-5-8||UBS Group||Set Price Target||n/a||$70.00||-|
|2019-5-21||Piper Jaffray Companies||Reiterates||$75.00||$68.00||-9.3%|
|2019-5-21||Jefferies Financial Group||Lowers Target||$75.00||$60.00||-20%|
|2019-3-29||Jefferies Financial Group||Reiterates||n/a||$70.00||-|
Financials and fundamental analysis
Earnings date and Earnings per ShareOn February, Lumentum didn't meet the estimates of the experts and posted a dreadful EPS of $0.59 per share when experts were expecting $1.00.
|Quarter||Reporting date||Estimated EPS||Actual EPS||Surprise|
Annual financial resultsIn 2018, Lumentum annual revenues boosted a super good 24.57% to $1,247.70 M USD from $1,001.60 marked in 2017. In the same way, its income margin (compared to revenues) rocketed to 19.88%, that is $248.10 million. Lumentum fiscal year ends in June, and to evaluate its evolution since then, we estimate annual sales and income figures by adding results from the last 4 quarters. This is called TTM (or Twelve Trailing Months). So, Lumentum TTM sales up to December 2018 were $1,327.70 and earnings $99.90 M dollars. When comparing this TTM figures with the last reported annuality, we can review Lumentum business evolution since June 2018: Annual turnover up to December, compared to lastest yearly report, escalated a very good 6.41%. However, profit margin (net income/sales) plunged at 19.88%.
|2013||$744 M||-||$-0.10 M-0.0%||-|
|2014||$796 M||6.99%||$4.10 M0.5%||-4,200.00%|
|2015||$837 M||5.12%||$-3.40 M-0.4%||-182.93%|
|2016||$903 M||7.87%||$9.30 M1.0%||-373.53%|
|2017||$1,002 M||10.92%||$-102.50 M-10.2%||-1,202.15%|
|2018||$1,248 M||24.57%||$248 M19.9%||-342.05%|
|TTM||$1,328 M||6.41%||$100 M7.5%||-59.73%|
Quarterly financial resultsLumentum posted $373.70 M in revenues for 2018-Q4, a 5.54% improvement compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter earnings marked $16.30 M with a profit margin of 4.36%. Profit margin dropped a -9.02% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was 13.39%. When comparing revenues to same quarter last year, Lumentum sales marked a horrible loss and slipped a -7.64%. Looking back to recent quarterly results, Lumentum posted 3 positive quarters in a row.
|2017-Q1||$256 M||-||$-56 M-21.9%||-|
|2017-Q2||$223 M||-12.94%||$-55 M-24.7%||-1.96%|
|2017-Q3||$243 M||9.21%||$7 M2.9%||-112.93%|
|2017-Q4||$405 M||66.37%||$205 M50.6%||2,784.51%|
|2018-Q1||$299 M||-26.15%||$3 M0.9%||-98.68%|
|2018-Q2||$301 M||0.77%||$34 M11.1%||1,140.74%|
|2018-Q3||$354 M||17.60%||$47 M13.4%||41.49%|
|2018-Q4||$374 M||5.54%||$16 M4.4%||-65.61%|
Lumentum ownershipWhen you are planning to invest in shares of a stock, it's always worth to have a look its ownership structure.
Lumentum shares owned by insiders (that is, founders, CEO, CTO, main executives or other management staff) currently counts a 0.65% of all shares.
Bearish positions for LITE stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.
The following table compares ownership indicators for other stocks related to Lumentum:
|Market cap||$4.5 B||$25.1 M|
|Total shares||76.9 M||7.5 M|
|Float shares||76.1 M||4.8 M|
|- Institutional holdings (%)||87.3%||16.1%|
|- Insider holdings (%)||0.7%||35.2%|
|Shares in short selling||0.0%||0.0%|
|Friday, September 20th, 2019|
|Day range||$58.19 - $60.89|
|Average true range||$1.88|
|50d mov avg||$57.08|
|100d mov avg||$53.76|
|200d mov avg||$51.61|
Lumentum performancePerformance as an absolute value is never valid if it's not benchmarked against competitors or related stocks in the industry. We compared Lumentum against Array in the following table: