Lumentum stock: buy or sell?

LITE stock price: $44.42 -4.10% At close on May 20th, 2019

Updated on:
May 20th, 2019

1

After sliding a dreadful -8.38% on Friday, Lumentum closed today at $44.42 and collapsed a frightening -4.10%. With Monday it's been 4 sliding days in a row, loosing $-12.93 (-23.31%).

Lumentum Holdings Inc. manufactures and sells optical and photonic products in the Americas, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.

Should I buy Lumentum stock?

Trading stocks requires experience and discipline, and your buying and selling decisions must come following a methodology. Trading strategies are meant for helping you in the decision process of what stocks to pick and when is the best moment to buy them. There are thousands of trading strategies for you to choose, but at Stocks2.com we prefer those that are simple but successful.

None of our preferred buy setups matches with Lumentum stock situation right now, hence this is not a suitable entry point.

Buy setupElegible
New all-time highNo
New 52 week highNo
Price crossing up 200d MANo
100d MA crossing up 200d MANo
This is not a selling recommendation at all, just it's not the best moment to buy if you follow any of these trading strategies.

Is Lumentum stock a buy?

Banks and financial institutions publish stock ratings everyday. At Stocks2.com, we gathered 12 ratings published for LITE stock in the last month.

The general sentiment of these ratings is bullish for LITE stock, with 8 positive ratings.
Is LITE a good stock to buy?
DateAnalyst / BrokerPrevious ratingCurrent rating
2019-5-8UBS Groupn/aBuy
2019-3-6Northland Securitiesn/aBuy
2019-3-29Jefferies Financial GroupBuyBuy
2019-3-27Morgan StanleyEqual WeightOverweight
2019-3-22JPMorgan Chase & Co.NeutralOverweight
2019-3-18Needham & Company LLCn/aStrong-Buy
2019-3-14Raymond JamesStrong-BuyStrong-Buy
2019-2-6MKM Partnersn/aBuy
2019-1-3Raymond JamesStrong-BuyStrong-Buy
2019-1-3Needham & Company LLCn/aStrong-Buy
2019-1-24Piper Jaffray Companiesn/aOverweight
2019-1-18Barclaysn/aBuy

Lumentum stock analysis

Daily outlook

After sliding a dreadful -8.38% on Friday, Lumentum closed today at $44.42 and collapsed a frightening -4.10%.

After sliding a dreadful -8.38% on Friday, Lumentum closed today at $44.42 and collapsed a frightening -4.10%. Since SMA50d and SMA100d crossed up on March, LITE price slid a -13.75%.

LITE stock chart (daily)

Weekly outlook

After sliding a chilling -27.66% in a week last week, Lumentum closed this week at $44.42 and fell a godawful -4.10%. With this, it's been 3 red weeks in a row, sliding $-19.32 or a -32.10%. Late April LITE skyrocketed a phenomenal 5.57% in just one week.

Lumentum stock dropped through the support line what triggered further losses. Price is now looking for lower supports, and best candidates are 41.1. Since price and 40-weeks moving average lines crossed down last week, LITE fell $-14.71 per share (-24.88%). Stocks under the 40w moving average line are usually not recommended for average traders.

LITE stock chart (weekly)

Lumentum stock price history

Lumentum stock went public on July 23rd, 2015 with a price of $18.601. Since then, LITE stock grew a 138.80%, with a yearly average of 46.30%. If you had invested right after LITE's IPO a $1,000 in Lumentum stock in 2015, it would worth $1,388.00 today.

1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.

Lumentum stock historical price chart

LITE stock reached 52-week highs on August at $69.95, and all-time highs 2018-03-12 with a price of 74.4.

Lumentum stock price target is $67.40

Predicting the price evolution of a stock or any financial instrument in a reliable and repeatable way is probably impossible. However, financial institutions invest time and resources to provide the most accurated estimations to help investors to make their decisions. You should not follow the analysts' LITE stock price predictions in the hope that they will be met as they may be wrong and not met. We found 10 price predictions for Lumentum stock posted in the last 30 days:
LITE stock price predictions
DateAnalyst / BrokerActionPrevious targetCurrent targetDiff
2019-5-8UBS GroupSet Price Targetn/a$70.00-
2019-3-6Northland SecuritiesReiteratesn/a$64.00-
2019-3-29Jefferies Financial GroupReiteratesn/a$70.00-
2019-3-27Morgan StanleyUpgrades$55.00$65.0018.2%
2019-3-22JPMorgan Chase & Co.Upgrades$50.00$65.0030%
2019-3-14Raymond JamesRaises Target$75.00$78.004%
2019-2-6MKM PartnersRaises Targetn/a$66.00-
2019-1-3Raymond JamesLowers Target$87.00$85.00-2.3%
2019-1-24Piper Jaffray CompaniesReiterates$63.00$59.00-6.3%
2019-1-18BarclaysReiteratesn/a$52.00-
(in average)$66.00$67.402.0%
The price target for Lumentum stock is $67.40, moving in a range between $85.00 and $52.00.

Financials and fundamental analysis

Earnings date and Earnings per Share

Lumentum failed experts on February when it published an Earnings per Share (EPS) of $0.59 when the market consensus was $1.00.
LITE earnings date and EPS evolution
QuarterReporting dateEstimated EPSActual EPSSurprise
2017-Q1-n/a-0.89n/a
2017-Q2-n/a-0.88n/a
2017-Q32017-11-010.530.43-18.9%
2017-Q42018-02-061.121.6749.1%
2018-Q12018-05-020.530.6420.8%
2018-Q22018-08-080.480.866.7%
2018-Q32018-11-010.851.1434.1%
2018-Q42019-02-0510.59-41.0%
2019-Q1-n/an/an/a
2019-Q2-n/an/an/a

Annual financial results

In 2018, Lumentum annual turnover boosted an amazing 24.57% to $1,247.70 million USD from $1,001.60 marked in 2017. When comparing 2018 vs 2017, likewise, profit margin (that is, the net income divided by revenues) rocketed a 30.12% to 19.88%.

To have an up to date picture of the financial situation of Lumentum, we have calculated the trailing twelve month (TTM) sales and income figures. TTM values are the sum of the last 4 quarters and aproximate to an annual fiscal report ending in 2018-Q4 that can be compared to 2018 fiscal year results. Annual Lumentum TTM sales up to December 2018 were $1,327.70 and earnings were $99.90 M USD. If we compare this TTM figures with the last reported annuality, we can review Lumentum business evolution since June 2018: Annual revenues up to December, compared to lastest yearly report, rose a more than good 6.41%. Regarding profit margin, Lumentum plummed -12.36% to 19.88%

LITE annual Sales and Income evolution
YearSalesYoYIncome/(margin)YoY
2013$744 M-$-0.10 M-0.0%-
2014$796 M6.99%$4.10 M0.5%-4,200.00%
2015$837 M5.12%$-3.40 M-0.4%-182.93%
2016$903 M7.87%$9.30 M1.0%-373.53%
2017$1,002 M10.92%$-102.50 M-10.2%-1,202.15%
2018$1,248 M24.57%$248 M19.9%-342.05%
TTM $1,328 M6.41%$100 M7.5%-59.73%

Quarterly financial results

Lumentum reported $373.70 M in revenues for 2018-Q4, a 5.54% improvement compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter income marked $16.30 M with a profit margin of 4.36%. Profit margin eased a -9.02% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was 13.39%. When comparing revenues to same quarter last year, Lumentum sales marked a shocking loss and dropped a -7.64%. Looking back to recent quarterly results, Lumentum posted 3 positive quarters in a row.
LITE quarterly Sales and Income evolution
QuarterSales1QoQ2Income1/(margin)QoQ2
2017-Q1$256 M-$-56 M-21.9%-
2017-Q2$223 M-12.94%$-55 M-24.7%-1.96%
2017-Q3$243 M9.21%$7 M2.9%-112.93%
2017-Q4$405 M66.37%$205 M50.6%2,784.51%
2018-Q1$299 M-26.15%$3 M0.9%-98.68%
2018-Q2$301 M0.77%$34 M11.1%1,140.74%
2018-Q3$354 M17.60%$47 M13.4%41.49%
2018-Q4$374 M5.54%$16 M4.4%-65.61%

Lumentum ownership

When you are planning to buy shares of a company, it's always worth to check its ownership structure.

Lumentum shares owned by insiders (that is, founders, CEO, CTO, main executives or other management staff) currently counts a 0.65% of all shares.

Bearish positions for LITE stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.

For a better understanding, the next table shows ownership data compared to other related stocks:

LITEOCC
Market cap$3.4 B$35.4 M
Total shares76.4 M7.4 M
Float shares75.8 M4.8 M
  - Institutional holdings (%)87.3%16.1%
  - Insider holdings (%)0.7%35.2%
Shares in short selling0.0%0.0%

Lumentum summary

Monday, May 20th, 2019
Open$44.49
Close$44.42
Day range$44.01 - $46.25
Previous close$46.32
Session gain-4.10%
Average true range$3.08
50d mov avg$56.90
100d mov avg$51.49
200d mov avg$53.11
Daily pattern
Weekly pattern lt06c

Lumentum performance

To measure stock performance is always good to benchmark with competitors or related stocks. In the following table, we compare Lumentum performance to Array:
Stock3m6m12m
LITELumentum-12.23%11.47%-29.88%
OCCOptical Cable-8.64%2.15%92.71%

Lumentum competitors

Creating a list of competitors for Lumentum it's not an easy task. We selected just one public company that in our opinion is related to and can be considered Lumentum competitor: