Lumentum stock: buy or sell?

LITE stock price: $77.53 -0.35% At close on February 26th, 2020

Updated on:
February 26th, 2020

2

Lumentum shares slightly fell -0.35% to $77.53 today. With Wednesday it's been 5 sliding days in a row, loosing $-9.69 (-11.44%).

Lumentum Holdings Inc. manufactures and sells optical and photonic products in the Americas, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.

Should I buy Lumentum stock?

Make a decision about when to buy or sell stocks is one of the hardest parts of being a trader or investor. That's why is so important to choose your own trading plan that matches with your character as inversor. There are thousands of trading strategies for you to choose, but at Stocks2.com we prefer those that are simple but successful.

Currently, Lumentum stock doesn't match any of these trading strategies, so our recommendation is not to buy.

Buy setupElegible
New all-time highNo
New 52 week highNo
Price crossing up 200d MANo
100d MA crossing up 200d MANo
This is not a selling recommendation at all, just it's not the best moment to buy if you follow any of these trading strategies.

Is Lumentum stock a buy?

Everyday, hundreds of stock ratings are published by financial analysts to indicate a particular stock's attractiveness. Unfortunately, we couldn't find any rating for LITE stock for the last 30 days.

Lumentum stock analysis

Daily outlook

Shares of Lumentum slightly fell an ugly -0.35% and closed at $77.53.

Lumentum shares slightly fell -0.35% to $77.53 today. LITE is retaking the upward trend marking a new rising bottom heading to break out over $93.23. Since last October when LITE stock price broke up the SMA200d line, it gained $25.62 (49.35%). On February/12, LITE hit new all time highs, pushing higher previous ATH of $92.75 recorded on February 11th. New ATHs are usual entry points for many trading setups as there aren't higher resistences.

LITE stock chart (daily)

Weekly outlook

Lumentum ended this week at $77.53 and plunged a spooky -6.75%. Early February LITE boosted an outstanding 13.21% in just one week. For 3 weeks in a row, price slid and lost a -12.89%.

Lumentum stock is trading in the range of its last top and last bottom. Loosing would mean breaking the current uptrend. Breakdowns under last bottom are selling point signals for some trading strategies. Not so far away is the last price record Lumentum marked by mid February, but since then it dropped a 16.84%. Since early October 2019 when LITE stock price broke up the SMA40w line, it gained $25.94 (50.28%). Late May 2019, SMA20w and SMA40w crossed up triggering a rise of 74.58%.

LITE stock chart (weekly)

Lumentum stock price history

Lumentum IPO was on July 23rd, 2015 at $18.60 per share1. Since then, LITE stock surged a 316.80%, with a yearly average of 79.20%. If you had invested right after LITE's IPO a $1,000 in Lumentum stock in 2015, it would worth $3,168.00 today.

1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.

Lumentum stock historical price chart

LITE stock reached all-time highs on Feb/12 with a price of $93.23.

Lumentum stock price target

Nobody can reliably foresee how stock prices may evolve in the future. However, many stock price predictions are published every day by banks, financial institutions and independent analysts. The accuracy of these stock price predictions is not very high, and you should not blindly believe and make decisions only based on what this ratings or price target predictions say. For the last month we have not detected any price forecast for Lumentum stock by any trusted analyst.

Financials and fundamental analysis

Earnings date and Earnings per Share

, Lumentum failed to meet the expectations of the analysts and posted a chilling EPS of $0.59 per share when experts were expecting $1.00.
LITE earnings date and EPS evolution
QuarterReporting dateEstimated EPSActual EPSSurprise
2017-Q1-n/a-0.89n/a
2017-Q2-n/a-0.88n/a
2017-Q32017-11-010.530.43-18.9%
2017-Q42018-02-061.121.6749.1%
2018-Q12018-05-020.530.6420.8%
2018-Q22018-08-080.480.866.7%
2018-Q32018-11-010.851.1434.1%
2018-Q42019-02-0510.59-41.0%
2019-Q1-n/an/an/a
2019-Q2-n/an/an/a

Annual financial results

Compared to 2017, last anual sales report draw an exceptional increase of 24.57% to $1,247.70 M USD. Similarly, its profit margin (compared to sales) climbed to 19.88%, that is $248.10 million.

Lumentum presents anual results in June, and to evaluate its evolution since then, we estimate annual sales and income figures by adding results from the last 4 quarters. This is called TTM (or Twelve Trailing Months). So, Lumentum TTM sales up to December 2018 were $1,327.70 and earnings $99.90 M USD. If we compare this TTM figures with the last reported annuality, we can review Lumentum business evolution since June 2018: Annual turnover up to December, compared to lastest yearly report, rose an excellent 6.41%. Regarding profit margin, Lumentum collapsed -12.36% to 19.88%

LITE annual Sales and Income evolution
YearSalesYoYIncome/(margin)YoY
2013$744 M-$-0.10 M-0.0%-
2014$796 M6.99%$4.10 M0.5%-4,200.00%
2015$837 M5.12%$-3.40 M-0.4%-182.93%
2016$903 M7.87%$9.30 M1.0%-373.53%
2017$1,002 M10.92%$-102.50 M-10.2%-1,202.15%
2018$1,248 M24.57%$248 M19.9%-342.05%
TTM $1,328 M6.41%$100 M7.5%-59.73%

Quarterly financial results

Lumentum reported $373.70 million in revenues for 2018-Q4, a 5.54% up compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter earnings marked $16.30 M with a profit margin of 4.36%. Profit margin dropped a -9.02% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was 13.39%. When comparing sales to same quarter last year, Lumentum sales marked a godawful decrease and fell a -7.64%. Looking back to recent quarterly results, Lumentum posted 3 positive quarters in a row.
LITE quarterly Sales and Income evolution
QuarterSales1QoQ2Income1/(margin)QoQ2
2017-Q1$256 M-$-56 M-21.9%-
2017-Q2$223 M-12.94%$-55 M-24.7%-1.96%
2017-Q3$243 M9.21%$7 M2.9%-112.93%
2017-Q4$405 M66.37%$205 M50.6%2,784.51%
2018-Q1$299 M-26.15%$3 M0.9%-98.68%
2018-Q2$301 M0.77%$34 M11.1%1,140.74%
2018-Q3$354 M17.60%$47 M13.4%41.49%
2018-Q4$374 M5.54%$16 M4.4%-65.61%

Lumentum ownership

When you are planning to buy shares of a stock, it's always worth to overview its ownership structure.

Management staff in all public traded companies that hold equity is required to report every transaction to the SEC. For Lumentum, 0.49% of all outstanding shares are owned by its staff.

Bearish positions for LITE stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.

For a better understanding, the following table shows ownership data compared to other related stocks:

LITE
Market cap$5.8 B
Total shares74.7 M
Float shares74.1 M
  - Institutional holdings (%)96.6%
  - Insider holdings (%)0.5%
Shares in short selling0.0%

Lumentum summary

Wednesday, February 26th, 2020
Open$78.13
Close$77.53
Day range$76.78 - $79.77
Previous close$77.80
Session gain-0.35%
Average true range$3.42
50d mov avg$80.98
100d mov avg$72.03
200d mov avg$62.62
Daily patternlb02a
Weekly pattern lt06a

Lumentum performance

Performance as an absolute value is never valid if it's not benchmarked against competitors or related stocks in the industry. We selected as the bechmarking frame for Lumentum stock.
Stock3m6m12m
LITELumentum5.25%39.04%55.03%

Lumentum competitors

Unfortunately, we could not find any public company that could be defined as Lumentum competitor. This doesn't mean Lumentum does not have any competitor in the market, it's just we could not detected it.