Lumentum stock: buy or sell?

LITE stock price: $58.84 0.67% At close on September 20th, 2019

Updated on:
September 20th, 2019

2

Lumentum grew a tiny 0.67% and closed at $58.84. On September/11 LITE skyrocketed a dazzling 5.86%.

Lumentum Holdings Inc. manufactures and sells optical and photonic products in the Americas, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.

Should I buy Lumentum stock?

You can't be a successful trader if you don't follow a methodolgy or system that assist you in choosing companies and the correct market timing. Trading strategies are meant for helping you in the decision process of what stocks to pick and when is the best time to buy them. At Stocks2.com, we like to use very simple but trusted and powerful trend following trading strategies. Simple things usually work the best.

None of our preferred buy setups matches with Lumentum stock situation right now, therefore this is not a suitable entry point.

Buy setupElegible
New all-time highNo
New 52 week highNo
Price crossing up 200d MANo
100d MA crossing up 200d MANo
This is not a selling recommendation at all, just it's not the best moment to buy if you follow any of these trading strategies.

Is Lumentum stock a buy?

Everyday, hundreds of stock ratings are published by financial analysts to indicate a particular stock's attractiveness. At Stocks2.com, we gathered 15 ratings published for LITE stock in the last month.

The general sentiment of these ratings is bullish for LITE stock, with 14 positive ratings.
Is LITE a good stock to buy?
DateAnalyst / BrokerPrevious ratingCurrent rating
2019-8-9Piper Jaffray Companiesn/aOverweight
2019-8-9Piper Jaffray Companiesn/aOverweight
2019-8-9Needham & Company LLCStrong-BuyStrong-Buy
2019-8-9MKM PartnersBuyBuy
2019-8-9Craig Hallumn/aBuy
2019-8-9Craig Hallumn/aBuy
2019-8-9Barclaysn/aOverweight
2019-8-9B. RileyBuyBuy
2019-7-1Northland Securitiesn/aBuy
2019-6-6Barclaysn/aOverweight
2019-5-8UBS Groupn/aBuy
2019-5-21Piper Jaffray Companiesn/aOverweight
2019-5-21Jefferies Financial Groupn/aBuy
2019-3-6Northland Securitiesn/aBuy
2019-3-29Jefferies Financial GroupBuyBuy

Lumentum stock analysis

Daily outlook

Lumentum shares grew 0.67% to $58.84 today.

Lumentum grew a tiny 0.67% and closed at $58.84. Since price and SMA200d lines crossed up on June, LITE climbed $7.98 (15.69%). Since SMA100d and SMA200d crossed up on June, LITE price climbed $12.71 per share (27.55%). From a daily outlook perspective, LITE is drawing an uptrend of rising tops and rising bottoms. Since its last top on Sep/12 at $61.70, price slid and found support around $57.74. Breaking down under $57.74 would cancel the current uptrend and it might slide further to test lower supports. Note that $61.70 might act as a resistance line. Trading the long side, we should wait to a new breakout over $61.70 to find the next buy point.

LITE stock chart (daily)

Weekly outlook

Shares of Lumentum remained constant a neutral -0.27% this week. Early August LITE skyrocketed an astounding 9.35% in just one week. Late July LITE collapsed a frightening -8.81% in just one week.

Having descending tops is not good news for the long side. Although it's only a warning signal, investors should be on alert during next weeks to identify possible new signals. Falling under its previous bottom at would confirm the downtrend path. Since price and SMA40w lines crossed up late June, LITE climbed $9.47 (19.18%). Since SMA20d and SMA40w crossed up late May, LITE price climbed $14.43 per share (32.49%).

LITE stock chart (weekly)

Lumentum stock price history

Lumentum IPO was on July 23rd, 2015 at $18.60 per share1. Since then, LITE stock surged a 216.30%, with a yearly average of 54.10%. If you had invested $1,000 in Lumentum stock in 2015, it would worth $2,163.00 today.

1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.

Lumentum stock historical price chart

LITE stock reached 52-week highs on October at $63.95, and all-time highs 2018-03-12 with a price of 74.4.

Lumentum stock price target is $68.60

How much a stock will be priced tomorrow or next week is quite unpredictable However, many stock price predictions are published every day by banks, financial institutions and independent analysts. We do not recommend to follow these stock price predictions without a critical thinking from your side, as their accuracy is usually low. We detected 15 price targets for Lumentum stock published in the last month:
LITE stock price predictions
DateAnalyst / BrokerActionPrevious targetCurrent targetDiff
2019-8-9Piper Jaffray CompaniesReiterates$68.00$72.005.9%
2019-8-9Piper Jaffray CompaniesRaises Target$68.00$72.005.9%
2019-8-9Needham & Company LLCReiterates$62.00$70.0012.9%
2019-8-9MKM PartnersReiterates$60.00$76.0026.7%
2019-8-9Craig HallumReiterates$60.00$75.0025%
2019-8-9Craig HallumRaises Target$60.00$75.0025%
2019-8-9BarclaysRaises Target$60.00$65.008.3%
2019-8-9B. RileyReiterates$68.00$71.004.4%
2019-7-1Northland SecuritiesReiteratesn/a$71.25-
2019-6-6BarclaysLowers Target$60.00$50.00-16.7%
2019-5-8UBS GroupSet Price Targetn/a$70.00-
2019-5-21Piper Jaffray CompaniesReiterates$75.00$68.00-9.3%
2019-5-21Jefferies Financial GroupLowers Target$75.00$60.00-20%
2019-3-6Northland SecuritiesReiteratesn/a$64.00-
2019-3-29Jefferies Financial GroupReiteratesn/a$70.00-
(in average)$65.10$68.605.0%
The price forecast for Lumentum stock is $68.60, moving in a range between $76.00 and $50.00. In average, analysts' outlook on LITE price forecast is positive, improving the prediction by a 5.00% from previous estimations.

Financials and fundamental analysis

Earnings date and Earnings per Share

On February, Lumentum didn't meet the estimates of the experts and posted a dreadful EPS of $0.59 per share when experts were expecting $1.00.
LITE earnings date and EPS evolution
QuarterReporting dateEstimated EPSActual EPSSurprise
2017-Q1-n/a-0.89n/a
2017-Q2-n/a-0.88n/a
2017-Q32017-11-010.530.43-18.9%
2017-Q42018-02-061.121.6749.1%
2018-Q12018-05-020.530.6420.8%
2018-Q22018-08-080.480.866.7%
2018-Q32018-11-010.851.1434.1%
2018-Q42019-02-0510.59-41.0%
2019-Q1-n/an/an/a
2019-Q2-n/an/an/a

Annual financial results

In 2018, Lumentum annual revenues boosted a super good 24.57% to $1,247.70 M USD from $1,001.60 marked in 2017. In the same way, its income margin (compared to revenues) rocketed to 19.88%, that is $248.10 million.

Lumentum fiscal year ends in June, and to evaluate its evolution since then, we estimate annual sales and income figures by adding results from the last 4 quarters. This is called TTM (or Twelve Trailing Months). So, Lumentum TTM sales up to December 2018 were $1,327.70 and earnings $99.90 M dollars. When comparing this TTM figures with the last reported annuality, we can review Lumentum business evolution since June 2018: Annual turnover up to December, compared to lastest yearly report, escalated a very good 6.41%. However, profit margin (net income/sales) plunged at 19.88%.

LITE annual Sales and Income evolution
YearSalesYoYIncome/(margin)YoY
2013$744 M-$-0.10 M-0.0%-
2014$796 M6.99%$4.10 M0.5%-4,200.00%
2015$837 M5.12%$-3.40 M-0.4%-182.93%
2016$903 M7.87%$9.30 M1.0%-373.53%
2017$1,002 M10.92%$-102.50 M-10.2%-1,202.15%
2018$1,248 M24.57%$248 M19.9%-342.05%
TTM $1,328 M6.41%$100 M7.5%-59.73%

Quarterly financial results

Lumentum posted $373.70 M in revenues for 2018-Q4, a 5.54% improvement compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter earnings marked $16.30 M with a profit margin of 4.36%. Profit margin dropped a -9.02% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was 13.39%. When comparing revenues to same quarter last year, Lumentum sales marked a horrible loss and slipped a -7.64%. Looking back to recent quarterly results, Lumentum posted 3 positive quarters in a row.
LITE quarterly Sales and Income evolution
QuarterSales1QoQ2Income1/(margin)QoQ2
2017-Q1$256 M-$-56 M-21.9%-
2017-Q2$223 M-12.94%$-55 M-24.7%-1.96%
2017-Q3$243 M9.21%$7 M2.9%-112.93%
2017-Q4$405 M66.37%$205 M50.6%2,784.51%
2018-Q1$299 M-26.15%$3 M0.9%-98.68%
2018-Q2$301 M0.77%$34 M11.1%1,140.74%
2018-Q3$354 M17.60%$47 M13.4%41.49%
2018-Q4$374 M5.54%$16 M4.4%-65.61%

Lumentum ownership

When you are planning to invest in shares of a stock, it's always worth to have a look its ownership structure.

Lumentum shares owned by insiders (that is, founders, CEO, CTO, main executives or other management staff) currently counts a 0.65% of all shares.

Bearish positions for LITE stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.

The following table compares ownership indicators for other stocks related to Lumentum:

LITEOCC
Market cap$4.5 B$25.1 M
Total shares76.9 M7.5 M
Float shares76.1 M4.8 M
  - Institutional holdings (%)87.3%16.1%
  - Insider holdings (%)0.7%35.2%
Shares in short selling0.0%0.0%

Lumentum summary

Friday, September 20th, 2019
Open$58.77
Close$58.84
Day range$58.19 - $60.89
Previous close$58.45
Session gain0.67%
Average true range$1.88
50d mov avg$57.08
100d mov avg$53.76
200d mov avg$51.61
Daily patternlb03a
Weekly pattern lt01a

Lumentum performance

Performance as an absolute value is never valid if it's not benchmarked against competitors or related stocks in the industry. We compared Lumentum against Array in the following table:
Stock3m6m12m
LITELumentum19.18%11.36%-4.33%
OCCOptical Cable-14.94%-29.11%-24.49%

Lumentum competitors

Defining a list of competitors for Lumentum it's a hard job. We selected just one public company that in our opinion is related to and can be considered Lumentum competitor: