Lumentum stock: buy or sell?
May 20th, 2019
Lumentum Holdings Inc. manufactures and sells optical and photonic products in the Americas, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.
Should I buy Lumentum stock?Trading stocks requires experience and discipline, and your buying and selling decisions must come following a methodology. Trading strategies are meant for helping you in the decision process of what stocks to pick and when is the best moment to buy them. There are thousands of trading strategies for you to choose, but at Stocks2.com we prefer those that are simple but successful.
None of our preferred buy setups matches with Lumentum stock situation right now, hence this is not a suitable entry point.
|New all-time high||No|
|New 52 week high||No|
|Price crossing up 200d MA||No|
|100d MA crossing up 200d MA||No|
Is Lumentum stock a buy?
Banks and financial institutions publish stock ratings everyday.At Stocks2.com, we gathered 12 ratings published for LITE stock in the last month. The general sentiment of these ratings is bullish for LITE stock, with 8 positive ratings.
|Date||Analyst / Broker||Previous rating||Current rating|
|2019-3-29||Jefferies Financial Group||Buy||Buy|
|2019-3-27||Morgan Stanley||Equal Weight||Overweight|
|2019-3-22||JPMorgan Chase & Co.||Neutral||Overweight|
|2019-3-18||Needham & Company LLC||n/a||Strong-Buy|
|2019-1-3||Needham & Company LLC||n/a||Strong-Buy|
|2019-1-24||Piper Jaffray Companies||n/a||Overweight|
Lumentum stock analysis
After sliding a dreadful -8.38% on Friday, Lumentum closed today at $44.42 and collapsed a frightening -4.10%.
After sliding a dreadful -8.38% on Friday, Lumentum closed today at $44.42 and collapsed a frightening -4.10%. Since SMA50d and SMA100d crossed up on March, LITE price slid a -13.75%.
After sliding a chilling -27.66% in a week last week, Lumentum closed this week at $44.42 and fell a godawful -4.10%. With this, it's been 3 red weeks in a row, sliding $-19.32 or a -32.10%. Late April LITE skyrocketed a phenomenal 5.57% in just one week.
Lumentum stock dropped through the support line what triggered further losses. Price is now looking for lower supports, and best candidates are 41.1. Since price and 40-weeks moving average lines crossed down last week, LITE fell $-14.71 per share (-24.88%). Stocks under the 40w moving average line are usually not recommended for average traders.
Lumentum stock price history
Lumentum stock went public on July 23rd, 2015 with a price of $18.601. Since then, LITE stock grew a 138.80%, with a yearly average of 46.30%. If you had invested right after LITE's IPO a $1,000 in Lumentum stock in 2015, it would worth $1,388.00 today.
1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.
Lumentum stock historical price chart
LITE stock reached 52-week highs on August at $69.95, and all-time highs 2018-03-12 with a price of 74.4.
Lumentum stock price target is $67.40Predicting the price evolution of a stock or any financial instrument in a reliable and repeatable way is probably impossible. However, financial institutions invest time and resources to provide the most accurated estimations to help investors to make their decisions. You should not follow the analysts' LITE stock price predictions in the hope that they will be met as they may be wrong and not met. We found 10 price predictions for Lumentum stock posted in the last 30 days:
|Date||Analyst / Broker||Action||Previous target||Current target||Diff|
|2019-5-8||UBS Group||Set Price Target||n/a||$70.00||-|
|2019-3-29||Jefferies Financial Group||Reiterates||n/a||$70.00||-|
|2019-3-22||JPMorgan Chase & Co.||Upgrades||$50.00||$65.00||30%|
|2019-3-14||Raymond James||Raises Target||$75.00||$78.00||4%|
|2019-2-6||MKM Partners||Raises Target||n/a||$66.00||-|
|2019-1-3||Raymond James||Lowers Target||$87.00||$85.00||-2.3%|
|2019-1-24||Piper Jaffray Companies||Reiterates||$63.00||$59.00||-6.3%|
Financials and fundamental analysis
Earnings date and Earnings per ShareLumentum failed experts on February when it published an Earnings per Share (EPS) of $0.59 when the market consensus was $1.00.
|Quarter||Reporting date||Estimated EPS||Actual EPS||Surprise|
Annual financial resultsIn 2018, Lumentum annual turnover boosted an amazing 24.57% to $1,247.70 million USD from $1,001.60 marked in 2017. When comparing 2018 vs 2017, likewise, profit margin (that is, the net income divided by revenues) rocketed a 30.12% to 19.88%. To have an up to date picture of the financial situation of Lumentum, we have calculated the trailing twelve month (TTM) sales and income figures. TTM values are the sum of the last 4 quarters and aproximate to an annual fiscal report ending in 2018-Q4 that can be compared to 2018 fiscal year results. Annual Lumentum TTM sales up to December 2018 were $1,327.70 and earnings were $99.90 M USD. If we compare this TTM figures with the last reported annuality, we can review Lumentum business evolution since June 2018: Annual revenues up to December, compared to lastest yearly report, rose a more than good 6.41%. Regarding profit margin, Lumentum plummed -12.36% to 19.88%
|2013||$744 M||-||$-0.10 M-0.0%||-|
|2014||$796 M||6.99%||$4.10 M0.5%||-4,200.00%|
|2015||$837 M||5.12%||$-3.40 M-0.4%||-182.93%|
|2016||$903 M||7.87%||$9.30 M1.0%||-373.53%|
|2017||$1,002 M||10.92%||$-102.50 M-10.2%||-1,202.15%|
|2018||$1,248 M||24.57%||$248 M19.9%||-342.05%|
|TTM||$1,328 M||6.41%||$100 M7.5%||-59.73%|
Quarterly financial resultsLumentum reported $373.70 M in revenues for 2018-Q4, a 5.54% improvement compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter income marked $16.30 M with a profit margin of 4.36%. Profit margin eased a -9.02% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was 13.39%. When comparing revenues to same quarter last year, Lumentum sales marked a shocking loss and dropped a -7.64%. Looking back to recent quarterly results, Lumentum posted 3 positive quarters in a row.
|2017-Q1||$256 M||-||$-56 M-21.9%||-|
|2017-Q2||$223 M||-12.94%||$-55 M-24.7%||-1.96%|
|2017-Q3||$243 M||9.21%||$7 M2.9%||-112.93%|
|2017-Q4||$405 M||66.37%||$205 M50.6%||2,784.51%|
|2018-Q1||$299 M||-26.15%||$3 M0.9%||-98.68%|
|2018-Q2||$301 M||0.77%||$34 M11.1%||1,140.74%|
|2018-Q3||$354 M||17.60%||$47 M13.4%||41.49%|
|2018-Q4||$374 M||5.54%||$16 M4.4%||-65.61%|
Lumentum ownershipWhen you are planning to buy shares of a company, it's always worth to check its ownership structure.
Lumentum shares owned by insiders (that is, founders, CEO, CTO, main executives or other management staff) currently counts a 0.65% of all shares.
Bearish positions for LITE stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.
For a better understanding, the next table shows ownership data compared to other related stocks:
|Market cap||$3.4 B||$35.4 M|
|Total shares||76.4 M||7.4 M|
|Float shares||75.8 M||4.8 M|
|- Institutional holdings (%)||87.3%||16.1%|
|- Insider holdings (%)||0.7%||35.2%|
|Shares in short selling||0.0%||0.0%|
|Monday, May 20th, 2019|
|Day range||$44.01 - $46.25|
|Average true range||$3.08|
|50d mov avg||$56.90|
|100d mov avg||$51.49|
|200d mov avg||$53.11|
Lumentum performanceTo measure stock performance is always good to benchmark with competitors or related stocks. In the following table, we compare Lumentum performance to Array: