Lumentum stock: buy or sell?

LITE stock price: $53.67 -0.33% At close on July 15th, 2019

Updated on:
July 15th, 2019

2

Lumentum shares decreased -0.33% to $53.67 today.

Lumentum Holdings Inc. manufactures and sells optical and photonic products in the Americas, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.

Should I buy Lumentum stock?

You can't be a successful trader if you don't follow a methodolgy or system that assist you in choosing companies and the correct market timing. Trading strategies are meant for helping you in the decision process of what stocks to choose and when is the best time to buy them. At Stocks2.com, we use very simple but trusted and powerful trend following trading strategies. Simple things usually work the best.

None of our preferred buy setups matches with Lumentum stock situation right now, hence this is not a suitable entry point.

Buy setupElegible
New all-time highNo
New 52 week highNo
Price crossing up 200d MANo
100d MA crossing up 200d MANo
This is not a selling recommendation at all, just it's not the best moment to buy if you follow any of these trading strategies.

Is Lumentum stock a buy?

Banks and financial institutions post stock ratings everyday. At Stocks2.com, we detected 15 ratings published for LITE stock in the last month.

The general sentiment of these ratings is bullish for LITE stock, with 11 positive ratings.
Is LITE a good stock to buy?
DateAnalyst / BrokerPrevious ratingCurrent rating
2019-7-1Northland Securitiesn/aBuy
2019-6-6Barclaysn/aOverweight
2019-5-8UBS Groupn/aBuy
2019-5-21Piper Jaffray Companiesn/aOverweight
2019-5-21Jefferies Financial Groupn/aBuy
2019-3-6Northland Securitiesn/aBuy
2019-3-29Jefferies Financial GroupBuyBuy
2019-3-27Morgan StanleyEqual WeightOverweight
2019-3-22JPMorgan Chase & Co.NeutralOverweight
2019-3-18Needham & Company LLCn/aStrong-Buy
2019-3-14Raymond JamesStrong-BuyStrong-Buy
2019-2-6MKM Partnersn/aBuy
2019-1-3Raymond JamesStrong-BuyStrong-Buy
2019-1-3Needham & Company LLCn/aStrong-Buy
2019-1-24Piper Jaffray Companiesn/aOverweight

Lumentum stock analysis

Daily outlook

Lumentum shares decreased -0.33% to $53.67 today.

Shares of Lumentum decreased a disappointing -0.33% and closed at $53.67. Since price and SMA200d lines crossed up on June/27, LITE climbed $2.81 (5.52%). Since SMA100d and SMA200d crossed up on Jun 17th, LITE price climbed $7.54 per share (16.35%).

LITE stock chart (daily)

Weekly outlook

Lumentum shares remained constant -0.33% this week, ending at $53.67. Late May LITE plummed a dreadful -9.74% in just one week. Late June LITE climbed a super good 7.56% in just one week.

The downtrend marked by LITE has left consecutive falling peaks and bottoms. If the support holds the price, this might mark a double bottom configuration and create a flat-base to reverse this downtrend. Since late June when LITE stock price broke up the SMA40w line, it gained $4.30 (8.71%). Since late May when SMA20w and SMA40w crossed up, LITE price gained $9.26 per share (20.85%).

LITE stock chart (weekly)

Lumentum stock price history

Lumentum IPO was on July 23rd, 2015 at $18.60 per share1. Since then, LITE stock surged a 188.50%, with a yearly average of 62.80%. If you had invested $1,000 in Lumentum stock in 2015, it would worth $1,885.00 today.

1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.

Lumentum stock historical price chart

LITE stock reached 52-week highs on August at $69.95, and all-time highs 2018-03-12 with a price of 74.4.

Lumentum stock price target is $67.00

How much a stock will be priced tomorrow or next week is quite unpredictable However, banks and other financial institutions analysts, with the help of lots of data and algorithms do their best to predict the stock prices movement. We do not recommend to follow these stock price predictions without a critical thinking from your side, as their accuracy is usually low. For the last month we found 13 price predictions for Lumentum stock:
LITE stock price predictions
DateAnalyst / BrokerActionPrevious targetCurrent targetDiff
2019-7-1Northland SecuritiesReiteratesn/a$71.25-
2019-6-6BarclaysLowers Target$60.00$50.00-16.7%
2019-5-8UBS GroupSet Price Targetn/a$70.00-
2019-5-21Piper Jaffray CompaniesReiterates$75.00$68.00-9.3%
2019-5-21Jefferies Financial GroupLowers Target$75.00$60.00-20%
2019-3-6Northland SecuritiesReiteratesn/a$64.00-
2019-3-29Jefferies Financial GroupReiteratesn/a$70.00-
2019-3-27Morgan StanleyUpgrades$55.00$65.0018.2%
2019-3-22JPMorgan Chase & Co.Upgrades$50.00$65.0030%
2019-3-14Raymond JamesRaises Target$75.00$78.004%
2019-2-6MKM PartnersRaises Targetn/a$66.00-
2019-1-3Raymond JamesLowers Target$87.00$85.00-2.3%
2019-1-24Piper Jaffray CompaniesReiterates$63.00$59.00-6.3%
(in average)$67.50$67.00-1.0%
The price prediction for Lumentum stock is $67.00, moving in a range between $85.00 and $50.00. In average, analysts' outlook on LITE price forecast is stable from previous estimations.

Financials and fundamental analysis

Earnings date and Earnings per Share

On February, Lumentum didn't meet the estimates of the experts and posted a spooky EPS of $0.59 per share when experts were expecting $1.00.
LITE earnings date and EPS evolution
QuarterReporting dateEstimated EPSActual EPSSurprise
2017-Q1-n/a-0.89n/a
2017-Q2-n/a-0.88n/a
2017-Q32017-11-010.530.43-18.9%
2017-Q42018-02-061.121.6749.1%
2018-Q12018-05-020.530.6420.8%
2018-Q22018-08-080.480.866.7%
2018-Q32018-11-010.851.1434.1%
2018-Q42019-02-0510.59-41.0%
2019-Q1-n/an/an/a
2019-Q2-n/an/an/a

Annual financial results

Compared to 2017, last anual turnover report draw a dazzling growth of 24.57% to $1,247.70 M USD. Likewise, its profit margin (compared to revenues) skyrocketed to 19.88%, that is $248.10 million.

Lumentum fiscal year ends in June, and to evaluate its evolution since then, we estimate annual sales and income figures by adding results from the last 4 quarters. This is called TTM (or Twelve Trailing Months). So, Lumentum TTM sales up to December 2018 were $1,327.70 and income $99.90 million dollars. When comparing this TTM figures with the last reported annuality, we can review Lumentum business evolution since June 2018: Annual sales up to December, compared to lastest yearly report, jumped a shining 6.41%. Regarding profit margin, Lumentum plunged -12.36% to 19.88%

LITE annual Sales and Income evolution
YearSalesYoYIncome/(margin)YoY
2013$744 M-$-0.10 M-0.0%-
2014$796 M6.99%$4.10 M0.5%-4,200.00%
2015$837 M5.12%$-3.40 M-0.4%-182.93%
2016$903 M7.87%$9.30 M1.0%-373.53%
2017$1,002 M10.92%$-102.50 M-10.2%-1,202.15%
2018$1,248 M24.57%$248 M19.9%-342.05%
TTM $1,328 M6.41%$100 M7.5%-59.73%

Quarterly financial results

Lumentum reported $373.70 M in revenues for 2018-Q4, a 5.54% improvement compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter income marked $16.30 M with a profit margin of 4.36%. Profit margin slipped a -9.02% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was 13.39%. When comparing sales to same quarter last year, Lumentum sales marked a horrible loss and dropped a -7.64%. Looking back to recent quarterly results, Lumentum posted 3 negative quarters in a row.
LITE quarterly Sales and Income evolution
QuarterSales1QoQ2Income1/(margin)QoQ2
2017-Q1$256 M-$-56 M-21.9%-
2017-Q2$223 M-12.94%$-55 M-24.7%-1.96%
2017-Q3$243 M9.21%$7 M2.9%-112.93%
2017-Q4$405 M66.37%$205 M50.6%2,784.51%
2018-Q1$299 M-26.15%$3 M0.9%-98.68%
2018-Q2$301 M0.77%$34 M11.1%1,140.74%
2018-Q3$354 M17.60%$47 M13.4%41.49%
2018-Q4$374 M5.54%$16 M4.4%-65.61%

Lumentum ownership

When you are planning to buy a company, it's always worth to review its ownership structure.

Lumentum shares owned by insiders (that is, founders, CEO, CTO, main executives or other management staff) currently counts a 0.65% of all shares.

Bearish positions for LITE stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.

The following table compares ownership indicators for other stocks related to Lumentum:

LITEOCC
Market cap$3.2 B$29.0 M
Total shares59.1 M7.4 M
Float shares75.8 M4.8 M
  - Institutional holdings (%)87.3%16.1%
  - Insider holdings (%)0.7%35.2%
Shares in short selling0.0%0.0%

Lumentum summary

Monday, July 15th, 2019
Open$54.09
Close$53.67
Day range$53.29 - $54.29
Previous close$53.85
Session gain-0.33%
Average true range$2.12
50d mov avg$50.11
100d mov avg$52.65
200d mov avg$50.50
Daily patternlt01a
Weekly pattern lt02a

Lumentum performance

To better understand Lumentum performance you must compare its gains with other related stocks in same sector or industry. For Lumentum, the benchmark is made against Array.
Stock3m6m12m
LITELumentum-11.65%14.12%-1.34%
OCCOptical Cable-18.92%9.24%1.30%

Lumentum competitors

Defining a list of competitors for Lumentum it's a hard job. We selected just one public company that in our opinion is related to and can be considered Lumentum competitor: