Humana stock: buy or sell?

HUM stock price: $298.54 0.52% At close on August 19th, 2019

Updated on:
August 19th, 2019

2

Shares of Humana stepped up a slightly good 0.52% and closed at $298.54.

Humana Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a health and well-being company in the United States. The company operates through four segments: Retail; Group and Specialty; Healthcare Services; and Individual Commercial.

Should I buy Humana stock?

Trading stocks requires experience and discipline, and your buying and selling decisions must come following a methodology. Having a trading strategy helps to make decisions easier, quicker and with less hesitations. At Stocks2.com, we use very simple but trusted and powerful trend following trading strategies. Simple things usually work the best.

None of our preferred buy setups matches with Humana stock situation right now, therefore this is not a suitable entry point.

Buy setupElegible
New all-time highNo
New 52 week highNo
Price crossing up 200d MANo
100d MA crossing up 200d MANo
This is not a selling recommendation at all, just it's not the best moment to buy if you follow any of these trading strategies.

Is Humana stock a buy?

Everyday, hundreds of stock ratings are published by financial analysts to indicate a particular stock's attractiveness. At Stocks2.com, we collected 15 ratings published for HUM stock in the last 30 days.

The general sentiment of these ratings is bullish for HUM stock, with 11 positive ratings.
Is HUM a good stock to buy?
DateAnalyst / BrokerPrevious ratingCurrent rating
2019-8-12Cantor FitzgeraldNeutralOverweight
2019-8-1UBS Groupn/aNeutral
2019-8-1SunTrust Banksn/aHold
2019-8-1Piper Jaffray Companiesn/aOverweight
2019-8-1JPMorgan Chase & Co.n/aOverweight
2019-7-12Morgan Stanleyn/aOverweight
2019-5-2SunTrust Banksn/an/a
2019-5-2Oppenheimern/aOutperform
2019-5-2Morgan Stanleyn/aBuy
2019-5-2Credit Suisse Groupn/aOutperform
2019-5-2CitigroupBuyBuy
2019-4-23UBS Groupn/aNeutral
2019-4-17BarclaysOverweightOverweight
2019-2-7Credit Suisse Groupn/aOutperform
2019-2-7CitigroupBuyBuy

Humana stock analysis

Daily outlook

Humana stepped up a slightly good 0.52% and closed at $298.54.

Shares of Humana ended today at $298.54 and stepped up a slightly good 0.52%. Since price and SMA200d lines crossed up on July/30, HUM climbed $17.52 (6.23%). From a daily perspective, HUM is in a short term uptrend after plotting its last bottom ($282.52, on Aug/5) higher than the previous bottom, and its last top ($305.47, on Tuesday) also over the previous top. Now trading in between its last bottom and last top HUM might consolidate in a plain range, waiting to break out over $305.47 or down under $282.52. Since SMA50d and SMA100d crossed up on July 25th, HUM price climbed $22.45 per share (8.13%).

HUM stock chart (daily)

Weekly outlook

Humana shares grew 0.52% this week, ending at $298.54. Late July HUM rocketed an outstanding 5.80% in just one week.

Humana stock is drawing an uptrend with rising tops and bottoms. Now trading in between its last bottom and last top, HUM might consolidate in a flat-base, waiting to break out over or down under . Since price and SMA40w lines crossed up late July, HUM climbed $21.67 (7.83%). Far behind is the all-time high Humana recorded early November and since then the price is -15.61% below that top.

HUM stock chart (weekly)

Humana stock price history

Humana IPO was on December 31st, 1981 at $2.04 per share1. Since then, HUM stock grew a 14,534.30%, with an average of 392.80% per year. If you had invested right after HUM's IPO a $1,000 in Humana stock in 1981, it would worth $145,343.00 today.

1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.

Humana stock historical price chart

HUM stock reached all-time highs on November with a price of $353.77.

Humana stock price target is $329.90

How much a stock will be priced tomorrow or next week is quite unpredictable However, banks and other financial institutions analysts, with the help of lots of data and algorithms do their best to predict the stock prices movement. We do not recommend to follow these stock price predictions without a critical thinking from your side, as their accuracy is usually low. For the last month we found 14 price forecasts for Humana stock:
HUM stock price predictions
DateAnalyst / BrokerActionPrevious targetCurrent targetDiff
2019-8-12Cantor FitzgeraldUpgrades$300.00$345.0015%
2019-8-1UBS GroupRaises Target$266.00$317.0019.2%
2019-8-1SunTrust BanksRaises Targetn/a$340.00-
2019-8-1Piper Jaffray CompaniesRaises Target$315.00$341.008.3%
2019-8-1JPMorgan Chase & Co.Raises Target$288.00$322.0011.8%
2019-7-12Morgan StanleyLowers Target$331.00$315.00-4.8%
2019-5-2SunTrust BanksLowers Targetn/a$300.00-
2019-5-2OppenheimerLowers Target$373.00$350.00-6.2%
2019-5-2Morgan StanleySet Price Targetn/a$331.00-
2019-5-2Credit Suisse GroupReiterates$352.00$315.00-10.5%
2019-5-2CitigroupLowers Target$362.00$302.00-16.6%
2019-4-17BarclaysLowers Target$351.00$327.00-6.8%
2019-2-7Credit Suisse GroupReiterates$390.00$352.00-9.7%
2019-2-7CitigroupLowers Target$397.00$362.00-8.8%
(in average)$338.60$329.90-3.0%
Moving in a range from $362.00 and $300.00, the price target for Humana stock is $329.90. In average, analysts' outlook on HUM price target is negative, downsizing the target by a -3.00% from previous estimations.

Financials and fundamental analysis

Earnings date and Earnings per Share

Since April, when Humana published its last earnings report, it boosted an outstanding 17.13%. As soon as we get its posted EPS from the earnings report, we will update this report.
HUM earnings date and EPS evolution
QuarterReporting dateEstimated EPSActual EPSSurprise
2017-Q2-n/a4.46n/a
2017-Q32017-11-083.273.393.7%
2017-Q42018-02-0722.063.0%
2018-Q12018-05-023.213.364.7%
2018-Q22018-08-013.793.964.5%
2018-Q32018-11-074.294.586.8%
2018-Q42019-02-062.532.654.7%
2019-Q12019-04-304.27n/an/a
2019-Q2-n/an/an/a
2019-Q3-n/an/an/a

Annual financial results

Compared to 2017, last anual turnover report draw a fine increase of 5.85% to $56,912.00 M USD. When comparing 2018 vs 2017, nevertheless, profit margin (that is, the net income divided by revenues) decreased a -1.60% to 2.96%.

Humana presents anual results in December, and to compare its evolution since then, we estimate annual sales and income figures by adding results from the last 4 quarters. This is called TTM (or Twelve Trailing Months). So, Humana TTM sales up to March 2019 were $58,740.00 and earnings $1,758.00 million dollars. If we compare this TTM figures with the last reported annuality, we can esteem Humana business evolution since December 2018: Annual revenues up to March, compared to lastest yearly report, raised a good 3.21%. By contrast, profit margin (net income/revenues) stayed constant at 2.96%.

HUM annual Sales and Income evolution
YearSalesYoYIncome/(margin)YoY
2013$41,310 M-$1,230 M3.0%-
2014$48,500 M17.40%$1,147 M2.4%-6.75%
2015$54,289 M11.94%$1,276 M2.4%11.25%
2016$54,379 M0.17%$614 M1.1%-51.88%
2017$53,767 M-1.13%$2,448 M4.6%298.70%
2018$56,912 M5.85%$1,683 M3.0%-31.25%
TTM $58,740 M3.21%$1,758 M3.0%4.46%

Quarterly financial results

Humana posted $16,107.00 M in sales for 2019-Q1, a 13.69% improvement compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter income marked $566.00 million with a profit margin of 3.51%. Profit margin gained a 1.01% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was 2.51%. When comparing revenues to same quarter last year, Humana sales marked an exceptional growth and rocketed a 12.80%.
HUM quarterly Sales and Income evolution
QuarterSales1QoQ2Income1/(margin)QoQ2
2017-Q2$13,530 M-$650 M4.8%-
2017-Q3$13,282 M-1.83%$499 M3.8%-23.23%
2017-Q4$13,189 M-0.70%$184 M1.4%-63.13%
2018-Q1$14,279 M8.26%$491 M3.4%166.85%
2018-Q2$14,259 M-0.14%$193 M1.4%-60.69%
2018-Q3$14,206 M-0.37%$644 M4.5%233.68%
2018-Q4$14,168 M-0.27%$355 M2.5%-44.88%
2019-Q1$16,107 M13.69%$566 M3.5%59.44%

Humana ownership

When you are planning to buy shares of a company, it's worth to have a look its ownership structure.

Humana shares owned by insiders (that is, founders, CEO, CTO, main executives or other management staff) currently counts a 0.20% of all shares.

Bearish positions for HUM stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.

For a better context understanding, the following table shows ownership data compared to other related companies:

HUMANTMCNCMOHUNH
Market cap$40.3 B$70.9 B$8.3 B$8.6 B$233.5 B
Total shares135.0 M257.2 M173.6 M62.6 M950.3 M
Float shares134.7 M255.3 M408.0 M58.5 M941.0 M
  - Institutional holdings (%)96.4%91.4%92.3%106.5%88.2%
  - Insider holdings (%)0.2%0.2%2.4%0.8%0.6%
Shares in short selling0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Humana summary

Monday, August 19th, 2019
Open$299.76
Close$298.54
Day range$297.74 - $301.21
Previous close$297.00
Session gain0.52%
Average true range$8.32
50d mov avg$275.62
100d mov avg$263.95
200d mov avg$280.41
Daily patternlt06a
Weekly pattern lt06a

Humana performance

To measure stock performance is always good to compare with competitors or related stocks. We compared Humana against Anthem, Centene, Molina Healthcare and UnitedHealth in the following table:
Stock3m6m12m
HUMHumana13.61%-3.19%-9.25%
ANTMAnthem4.25%-11.08%5.53%
CNCCentene-14.33%-26.10%-33.19%
MOHMolina Healthcare5.39%0.99%1.37%
UNHUnitedHealth2.23%-8.63%-4.95%

Humana competitors

We chose a few stocks to conform a list of Humana competitors to review if you are interested in investing in HUM:

Latest Humana stock news