Humana stock: buy or sell?
August 19th, 2019
Humana Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a health and well-being company in the United States. The company operates through four segments: Retail; Group and Specialty; Healthcare Services; and Individual Commercial.
Should I buy Humana stock?Trading stocks requires experience and discipline, and your buying and selling decisions must come following a methodology. Having a trading strategy helps to make decisions easier, quicker and with less hesitations. At Stocks2.com, we use very simple but trusted and powerful trend following trading strategies. Simple things usually work the best.
None of our preferred buy setups matches with Humana stock situation right now, therefore this is not a suitable entry point.
|New all-time high||No|
|New 52 week high||No|
|Price crossing up 200d MA||No|
|100d MA crossing up 200d MA||No|
Is Humana stock a buy?
Everyday, hundreds of stock ratings are published by financial analysts to indicate a particular stock's attractiveness.At Stocks2.com, we collected 15 ratings published for HUM stock in the last 30 days. The general sentiment of these ratings is bullish for HUM stock, with 11 positive ratings.
|Date||Analyst / Broker||Previous rating||Current rating|
|2019-8-1||Piper Jaffray Companies||n/a||Overweight|
|2019-8-1||JPMorgan Chase & Co.||n/a||Overweight|
|2019-5-2||Credit Suisse Group||n/a||Outperform|
|2019-2-7||Credit Suisse Group||n/a||Outperform|
Humana stock analysis
Humana stepped up a slightly good 0.52% and closed at $298.54.
Shares of Humana ended today at $298.54 and stepped up a slightly good 0.52%. Since price and SMA200d lines crossed up on July/30, HUM climbed $17.52 (6.23%). From a daily perspective, HUM is in a short term uptrend after plotting its last bottom ($282.52, on Aug/5) higher than the previous bottom, and its last top ($305.47, on Tuesday) also over the previous top. Now trading in between its last bottom and last top HUM might consolidate in a plain range, waiting to break out over $305.47 or down under $282.52. Since SMA50d and SMA100d crossed up on July 25th, HUM price climbed $22.45 per share (8.13%).
Humana shares grew 0.52% this week, ending at $298.54. Late July HUM rocketed an outstanding 5.80% in just one week.
Humana stock is drawing an uptrend with rising tops and bottoms. Now trading in between its last bottom and last top, HUM might consolidate in a flat-base, waiting to break out over or down under . Since price and SMA40w lines crossed up late July, HUM climbed $21.67 (7.83%). Far behind is the all-time high Humana recorded early November and since then the price is -15.61% below that top.
Humana stock price history
Humana IPO was on December 31st, 1981 at $2.04 per share1. Since then, HUM stock grew a 14,534.30%, with an average of 392.80% per year. If you had invested right after HUM's IPO a $1,000 in Humana stock in 1981, it would worth $145,343.00 today.
1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.
Humana stock historical price chart
HUM stock reached all-time highs on November with a price of $353.77.
Humana stock price target is $329.90How much a stock will be priced tomorrow or next week is quite unpredictable However, banks and other financial institutions analysts, with the help of lots of data and algorithms do their best to predict the stock prices movement. We do not recommend to follow these stock price predictions without a critical thinking from your side, as their accuracy is usually low. For the last month we found 14 price forecasts for Humana stock:
|Date||Analyst / Broker||Action||Previous target||Current target||Diff|
|2019-8-1||UBS Group||Raises Target||$266.00||$317.00||19.2%|
|2019-8-1||SunTrust Banks||Raises Target||n/a||$340.00||-|
|2019-8-1||Piper Jaffray Companies||Raises Target||$315.00||$341.00||8.3%|
|2019-8-1||JPMorgan Chase & Co.||Raises Target||$288.00||$322.00||11.8%|
|2019-7-12||Morgan Stanley||Lowers Target||$331.00||$315.00||-4.8%|
|2019-5-2||SunTrust Banks||Lowers Target||n/a||$300.00||-|
|2019-5-2||Morgan Stanley||Set Price Target||n/a||$331.00||-|
|2019-5-2||Credit Suisse Group||Reiterates||$352.00||$315.00||-10.5%|
|2019-2-7||Credit Suisse Group||Reiterates||$390.00||$352.00||-9.7%|
Financials and fundamental analysis
Earnings date and Earnings per ShareSince April, when Humana published its last earnings report, it boosted an outstanding 17.13%. As soon as we get its posted EPS from the earnings report, we will update this report.
|Quarter||Reporting date||Estimated EPS||Actual EPS||Surprise|
Annual financial resultsCompared to 2017, last anual turnover report draw a fine increase of 5.85% to $56,912.00 M USD. When comparing 2018 vs 2017, nevertheless, profit margin (that is, the net income divided by revenues) decreased a -1.60% to 2.96%. Humana presents anual results in December, and to compare its evolution since then, we estimate annual sales and income figures by adding results from the last 4 quarters. This is called TTM (or Twelve Trailing Months). So, Humana TTM sales up to March 2019 were $58,740.00 and earnings $1,758.00 million dollars. If we compare this TTM figures with the last reported annuality, we can esteem Humana business evolution since December 2018: Annual revenues up to March, compared to lastest yearly report, raised a good 3.21%. By contrast, profit margin (net income/revenues) stayed constant at 2.96%.
|2013||$41,310 M||-||$1,230 M3.0%||-|
|2014||$48,500 M||17.40%||$1,147 M2.4%||-6.75%|
|2015||$54,289 M||11.94%||$1,276 M2.4%||11.25%|
|2016||$54,379 M||0.17%||$614 M1.1%||-51.88%|
|2017||$53,767 M||-1.13%||$2,448 M4.6%||298.70%|
|2018||$56,912 M||5.85%||$1,683 M3.0%||-31.25%|
|TTM||$58,740 M||3.21%||$1,758 M3.0%||4.46%|
Quarterly financial resultsHumana posted $16,107.00 M in sales for 2019-Q1, a 13.69% improvement compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter income marked $566.00 million with a profit margin of 3.51%. Profit margin gained a 1.01% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was 2.51%. When comparing revenues to same quarter last year, Humana sales marked an exceptional growth and rocketed a 12.80%.
|2017-Q2||$13,530 M||-||$650 M4.8%||-|
|2017-Q3||$13,282 M||-1.83%||$499 M3.8%||-23.23%|
|2017-Q4||$13,189 M||-0.70%||$184 M1.4%||-63.13%|
|2018-Q1||$14,279 M||8.26%||$491 M3.4%||166.85%|
|2018-Q2||$14,259 M||-0.14%||$193 M1.4%||-60.69%|
|2018-Q3||$14,206 M||-0.37%||$644 M4.5%||233.68%|
|2018-Q4||$14,168 M||-0.27%||$355 M2.5%||-44.88%|
|2019-Q1||$16,107 M||13.69%||$566 M3.5%||59.44%|
Humana ownershipWhen you are planning to buy shares of a company, it's worth to have a look its ownership structure.
Humana shares owned by insiders (that is, founders, CEO, CTO, main executives or other management staff) currently counts a 0.20% of all shares.
Bearish positions for HUM stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.
For a better context understanding, the following table shows ownership data compared to other related companies:
|Market cap||$40.3 B||$70.9 B||$8.3 B||$8.6 B||$233.5 B|
|Total shares||135.0 M||257.2 M||173.6 M||62.6 M||950.3 M|
|Float shares||134.7 M||255.3 M||408.0 M||58.5 M||941.0 M|
|- Institutional holdings (%)||96.4%||91.4%||92.3%||106.5%||88.2%|
|- Insider holdings (%)||0.2%||0.2%||2.4%||0.8%||0.6%|
|Shares in short selling||0.0%||0.0%||0.0%||0.0%||0.0%|
|Monday, August 19th, 2019|
|Day range||$297.74 - $301.21|
|Average true range||$8.32|
|50d mov avg||$275.62|
|100d mov avg||$263.95|
|200d mov avg||$280.41|
Humana performanceTo measure stock performance is always good to compare with competitors or related stocks. We compared Humana against Anthem, Centene, Molina Healthcare and UnitedHealth in the following table:
Humana competitorsWe chose a few stocks to conform a list of Humana competitors to review if you are interested in investing in HUM:
Latest Humana stock news
- Seeking AlphaHumana Set To Recover Losses Or Is Medicare For All A Threat?April 29, 2019
- Seeking AlphaHumana Inc.: An Intact Growth Story For A Decent Price?April 1, 2019
- Seeking AlphaPositive Earnings Report, Growth In Its Flagship Product And Focus On Personalised Health: Humana A Strong Growth Proposition For Short To Medium TermFebruary 26, 2019