Humana stock: buy or sell?

HUM stock price: $284.32 -0.35% At close on July 16th, 2019

Updated on:
July 16th, 2019

3

Humana shares depreciated -0.35% to $284.32 today.

Humana Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a health and well-being company in the United States. The company operates through four segments: Retail; Group and Specialty; Healthcare Services; and Individual Commercial.

Should I buy Humana stock?

Trading stocks requires experience and discipline, and your buying and selling decisions must come following a methodology. That's why is so important to choose your own trading strategy that matches with your character as inversor. There are thousands of trading strategies for you to choose, but at Stocks2.com we prefer those that are simple but successful.

None of our preferred buy setups matches with Humana stock situation right now, therefore this is not a suitable entry point.

Buy setupElegible
New all-time highNo
New 52 week highNo
Price crossing up 200d MANo
100d MA crossing up 200d MANo
This doesn't mean HUM will slide in coming sessions, or it will not rise higher. Simply, it doesn't match our recommended trading systems.

Is Humana stock a buy?

Everyday, hundreds of stock ratings are posted by financial analysts to indicate a particular stock's attractiveness. At Stocks2.com, we collected 12 ratings published for HUM stock in the last month.

The general sentiment of these ratings is bullish for HUM stock, with 10 positive ratings.
Is HUM a good stock to buy?
DateAnalyst / BrokerPrevious ratingCurrent rating
2019-7-12Morgan Stanleyn/aOverweight
2019-5-2SunTrust Banksn/an/a
2019-5-2Oppenheimern/aOutperform
2019-5-2Morgan Stanleyn/aBuy
2019-5-2Credit Suisse Groupn/aOutperform
2019-5-2CitigroupBuyBuy
2019-4-23UBS Groupn/aNeutral
2019-4-17BarclaysOverweightOverweight
2019-2-7Credit Suisse Groupn/aOutperform
2019-2-7CitigroupBuyBuy
2019-1-14Stephensn/aOverweight
2019-1-11CowenMarket PerformOutperform

Humana stock analysis

Daily outlook

Humana depreciated a bad -0.35% and closed at $284.32.

Humana shares depreciated -0.35% to $284.32 today. From a daily perspective, HUM is in a short term uptrend after plotting its last bottom ($259.18, on July 9th) higher than the previous bottom, and its last top ($291.39, on Friday) also over the previous top. Now trading in between its last bottom and last top HUM might consolidate in a plain range, waiting to break out over $291.39 or down under $259.18.

HUM stock chart (daily)

Weekly outlook

After boosting an outstanding 9.13% in a week last week, Humana closed this week at $284.32 and dropped a rough -2.38%. Late May HUM plunged a chilling -7.54% in just one week.

Humana stock is trading in the range of its last top and last bottom. Loosing would mean breaking the current uptrend. Breakdowns under last bottom are selling point signals for some trading strategies. Since last week when HUM stock price broke up the SMA40w line, it gained $19.67 (7.43%). Far behind is the all-time high Humana marked early November and since then the price is -19.63% below that top.

HUM stock chart (weekly)

Humana stock price history

Humana IPO was on December 31st, 1981 at $2.04 per share1. Since then, HUM stock surged a 13,837.30%, with a yearly average of 374.00%. If you had invested $1,000 in Humana stock in 1981, it would worth $138,373.00 today.

1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.

Humana stock historical price chart

HUM stock reached all-time highs on November with a price of $353.77.

Humana stock price target is $328.20

Nobody can reliably foresee how stock prices may evolve in the future. However, financial institutions invest time and resources to provide the most accurated estimations to help investors to make their decisions. You should not follow the analysts' HUM stock price predictions in the hope that they will be met as they may be wrong and not met. We detected 9 price forecasts for Humana stock published in the last month:
HUM stock price predictions
DateAnalyst / BrokerActionPrevious targetCurrent targetDiff
2019-7-12Morgan StanleyLowers Target$331.00$315.00-4.8%
2019-5-2SunTrust BanksLowers Targetn/a$300.00-
2019-5-2OppenheimerLowers Target$373.00$350.00-6.2%
2019-5-2Morgan StanleySet Price Targetn/a$331.00-
2019-5-2Credit Suisse GroupReiterates$352.00$315.00-10.5%
2019-5-2CitigroupLowers Target$362.00$302.00-16.6%
2019-4-17BarclaysLowers Target$351.00$327.00-6.8%
2019-2-7Credit Suisse GroupReiterates$390.00$352.00-9.7%
2019-2-7CitigroupLowers Target$397.00$362.00-8.8%
(in average)$365.10$328.20-10.0%
The price prediction for Humana stock is $328.20, moving in a range between $362.00 and $300.00. In average, analysts' outlook on HUM price target is negative, downgrading the forecast by a -10.00% from previous estimations.

Financials and fundamental analysis

Earnings date and Earnings per Share

After posting its last earnings report on April, Humana escalated a shining 11.55%. As soon as we get its actual EPS from the earnings report, we will update this report.
HUM earnings date and EPS evolution
QuarterReporting dateEstimated EPSActual EPSSurprise
2017-Q2-n/a4.46n/a
2017-Q32017-11-083.273.393.7%
2017-Q42018-02-0722.063.0%
2018-Q12018-05-023.213.364.7%
2018-Q22018-08-013.793.964.5%
2018-Q32018-11-074.294.586.8%
2018-Q42019-02-062.532.654.7%
2019-Q12019-04-304.27n/an/a
2019-Q2-n/an/an/a
2019-Q3-n/an/an/a

Annual financial results

Compared to 2017, last anual sales report draw a nice growth of 5.85% to $56,912.00 M USD. In contrast, its income margin (compared to sales) decreased to 2.96%, that is $1,683.00 million.

To have an updated view of the financial situation of Humana, we have calculated the trailing twelve month (TTM) sales and income figures. TTM values are the sum of the last 4 quarters and aproximate to an annual fiscal report ending in 2019-Q1 that can be compared to 2018 fiscal year results. Annual Humana TTM sales up to March 2019 were $58,740.00 and income was $1,758.00 million dollars. If we compare this TTM figures with the last reported annuality, we can review Humana business evolution since December 2018: Annual sales up to March, compared to lastest yearly report, raised a good 3.21%. Regarding profit margin, Humana stayed constant 0.04% to 2.96%

HUM annual Sales and Income evolution
YearSalesYoYIncome/(margin)YoY
2013$41,310 M-$1,230 M3.0%-
2014$48,500 M17.40%$1,147 M2.4%-6.75%
2015$54,289 M11.94%$1,276 M2.4%11.25%
2016$54,379 M0.17%$614 M1.1%-51.88%
2017$53,767 M-1.13%$2,448 M4.6%298.70%
2018$56,912 M5.85%$1,683 M3.0%-31.25%
TTM $58,740 M3.21%$1,758 M3.0%4.46%

Quarterly financial results

Humana reported $16,107.00 million in sales for 2019-Q1, a 13.69% improvement compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter income marked $566.00 million with a profit margin of 3.51%. Profit margin stepped up a 1.01% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was 2.51%. When comparing sales to same quarter last year, Humana sales marked an amazing gain and rocketed a 12.80%.
HUM quarterly Sales and Income evolution
QuarterSales1QoQ2Income1/(margin)QoQ2
2017-Q2$13,530 M-$650 M4.8%-
2017-Q3$13,282 M-1.83%$499 M3.8%-23.23%
2017-Q4$13,189 M-0.70%$184 M1.4%-63.13%
2018-Q1$14,279 M8.26%$491 M3.4%166.85%
2018-Q2$14,259 M-0.14%$193 M1.4%-60.69%
2018-Q3$14,206 M-0.37%$644 M4.5%233.68%
2018-Q4$14,168 M-0.27%$355 M2.5%-44.88%
2019-Q1$16,107 M13.69%$566 M3.5%59.44%

Humana ownership

When you are planning to invest in shares of a company, it's worth to overview its ownership structure.

Humana shares owned by insiders (that is, founders, CEO, CTO, main executives or other management staff) currently counts a 0.20% of all shares.

Bearish positions for HUM stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.

For a better context understanding, the next table shows ownership data compared to other related stocks:

HUMANTMCNCMOHUNH
Market cap$38.4 B$78.9 B$9.4 B$8.9 B$252.8 B
Total shares135.0 M257.2 M173.6 M62.6 M950.3 M
Float shares134.7 M256.9 M407.9 M52.0 M944.3 M
  - Institutional holdings (%)96.4%91.4%92.3%106.5%88.2%
  - Insider holdings (%)0.2%0.2%2.4%0.8%0.6%
Shares in short selling0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Humana summary

Tuesday, July 16th, 2019
Open$286.09
Close$284.32
Day range$283.07 - $287.45
Previous close$285.32
Session gain-0.35%
Average true range$7.30
50d mov avg$255.97
100d mov avg$261.50
200d mov avg$284.79
Daily patternlt06a
Weekly pattern lt06a

Humana performance

Stocks performance is always measured in comparision to the market or competitors and related stocks in the same industry. In the following table, we compare Humana performance to Anthem, Centene, Molina Healthcare and UnitedHealth:
Stock3m6m12m
HUMHumana18.38%-3.40%-9.87%
ANTMAnthem28.41%15.92%24.79%
CNCCentene12.16%-14.61%-20.17%
MOHMolina Healthcare17.68%3.69%33.79%
UNHUnitedHealth20.47%1.00%6.82%

Humana competitors

One check before trading any stock is to review a list of its competitors, in this case for Humana. We picked 4 companies as Humana competitors as they are in the same industry or have similar market objectives.

Latest Humana stock news