GPK stock: buy or sell?

GPK stock price: $13.01 0.54% At close on August 19th, 2019

Updated on:
August 19th, 2019

2

Shares of Graphic Packaging grew a slightly fine 0.54% and closed at $13.01. Monday was the 3rd green day in a row, marking 1.97%.

Graphic Packaging Holding Company, together with its subsidiaries, provides paper-based packaging solutions to food, beverage, and other consumer products companies.

Should I buy GPK stock?

You can't be a successful trader if you don't follow a methodolgy or system that assist you in choosing companies and the correct market timing. Following a trading plan helps to make decisions easier, quicker and with less hesitations. At Stocks2.com, we use very simple but trusted and powerful trend following trading strategies. Simple things usually work the best.

None of our preferred buy setups matches with Graphic Packaging stock situation right now, hence this is not a suitable entry point.

Buy setupElegible
New all-time highNo
New 52 week highNo
Price crossing up 200d MANo
100d MA crossing up 200d MANo
This doesn't mean GPK will fall in coming sessions, or it will not rise higher. Simply, it doesn't match our recommended trading systems.

Is Graphic Packaging stock a buy?

Banks and financial institutions post stock ratings everyday. At Stocks2.com, we gathered 4 ratings published for GPK stock in the last month.

Is GPK a good stock to buy?
DateAnalyst / BrokerPrevious ratingCurrent rating
2019-7-11Citigroupn/aBuy
2019-4-24UBS Groupn/aNeutral
2019-4-24KeyCorpn/aHold
2019-1-4UBS Groupn/aNeutral

GPK stock analysis

Daily outlook

Shares of Graphic Packaging grew a slightly fine 0.54% and closed at $13.01.

Graphic Packaging ended yesterday at $13.01 and grew a slightly fine 0.54%. Since May when SMA100d and SMA200d crossed up, GPK price gained $0.24 per share (1.88%). GPK marked a lower low and a lower high in the short term, defining a downward trend. Climbing above $14.65 would break this short term down trend and open possibilities for reversing this situation. Since last April when GPK stock price broke up the SMA200d line, it gained $0.44 (3.50%).

GPK stock chart (daily)

Weekly outlook

Shares of Graphic Packaging closed this week at $13.01 and stepped up a slightly fine 0.54%. Early August GPK plummed a frightening -9.22% in just one week. Late July GPK rocketed an amazing 6.00% in just one week.

Since SMA20w and SMA40w crossed up by mid May, GPK price slid a -4.27%. Since price and 20-weeks moving average lines crossed down early August, GPK fell $-1.68 per share (-11.44%).

GPK stock chart (weekly)

GPK stock price history

GPK IPO was on December 10th, 1992 at $2.71 per share1. Since then, GPK stock grew a 380.10%, with a yearly average of 14.60%. If you had invested $1,000 in GPK stock in 1992, it would worth $3,801.00 today.

1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.

GPK stock historical price chart

GPK stock reached 52-week highs on July 23rd at $15.58, and all-time highs 2018-01-16 with a price of 16.11.

GPK stock price target is $15.00

How much a stock will be priced tomorrow or next week is quite unpredictable However, financial institutions invest time and resources to provide the most accurated estimations to help investors to make their decisions. The accuracy of these stock price predictions is not very high, and you should not blindly believe and make decisions only based on what this ratings or price target predictions say. We have 2 price predictions for Graphic Packaging stock posted in the last 30 days:
GPK stock price predictions
DateAnalyst / BrokerActionPrevious targetCurrent targetDiff
2019-7-11CitigroupRaises Target$16.00$17.006.3%
2019-4-24UBS GroupRaises Target$12.50$13.004%
(in average)$14.30$15.005.0%
The price forecast for Graphic Packaging stock is $15.00, moving in a range between $17.00 and $13.00. In average, analysts' outlook on GPK price forecast is positive, improving the prediction by a 5.00% from previous estimations.

Financials and fundamental analysis

Earnings date and Earnings per Share

After publishing its last earnings report on April, Graphic Packaging remained stable a neutral 0.77%. Unfortunately, reported EPS is not yet available in our database.
GPK earnings date and EPS evolution
QuarterReporting dateEstimated EPSActual EPSSurprise
2017-Q2-n/a0.15n/a
2017-Q32017-10-240.180.180.0%
2017-Q42018-02-060.190.17-10.5%
2018-Q12018-04-240.170.1911.8%
2018-Q22018-07-240.20.18-10.0%
2018-Q32018-10-230.250.22-12.0%
2018-Q42019-01-290.190.2321.1%
2019-Q12019-04-230.18n/an/a
2019-Q2-n/an/an/a
2019-Q3-n/an/an/a

Annual financial results

Compared to 2017, last anual turnover report draw a dazzling increase of 36.77% to $6,023.00 M USD. In contrast, its income margin (compared to sales) declined to 3.67%, that is $221.10 million.

Graphic Packaging fiscal year ends in December, and to evaluate its evolution since then, we estimate annual sales and income figures by adding results from the last 4 quarters. This is called TTM (or Twelve Trailing Months). So, Graphic Packaging TTM sales up to March 2019 were $6,052.90 and earnings $249.10 million dollars. When comparing this TTM figures with the last reported annuality, we can esteem Graphic Packaging business evolution since December 2018: Annual sales up to March, compared to lastest yearly report, stayed stable a neutral 0.50%. Regarding profit margin, Graphic Packaging remained stable 0.44% to 3.67%

GPK annual Sales and Income evolution
YearSalesYoYIncome/(margin)YoY
2013$4,480 M-$147 M3.3%-
2014$4,241 M-5.35%$90 M2.1%-38.81%
2015$4,160 M-1.89%$230 M5.5%156.52%
2016$4,298 M3.31%$228 M5.3%-0.91%
2017$4,404 M2.46%$300 M6.8%31.67%
2018$6,023 M36.77%$221 M3.7%-26.35%
TTM $6,053 M0.50%$249 M4.1%12.66%

Quarterly financial results

Graphic Packaging reported $1,505.90 M in sales for 2019-Q1, a -0.12% less compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter income marked $57.90 M with a profit margin of 3.84%. Profit margin remained constant a 0.69% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was 3.15%. When comparing revenues to same quarter last year, Graphic Packaging sales marked a tiny gain and raised a 2.03%. Looking back to recent quarterly results, Graphic Packaging posted 2 positive quarters in a row.
GPK quarterly Sales and Income evolution
QuarterSales1QoQ2Income1/(margin)QoQ2
2017-Q2$1,090 M-$42 M3.9%-
2017-Q3$1,140 M4.59%$47 M4.1%12.62%
2017-Q4$1,110 M-2.64%$174 M15.7%267.65%
2018-Q1$1,476 M32.98%$30 M2.0%-82.81%
2018-Q2$1,509 M2.26%$49 M3.3%65.22%
2018-Q3$1,530 M1.37%$94 M6.2%90.89%
2018-Q4$1,508 M-1.46%$48 M3.2%-49.63%
2019-Q1$1,506 M-0.12%$58 M3.8%21.89%

Graphic Packaging ownership

When you are planning to buy shares of a stock, it's worth to review its ownership structure.

Graphic Packaging shares owned by insiders (that is, founders, CEO, CTO, main executives or other management staff) currently counts a 0.76% of all shares.

Bearish positions for GPK stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.

The following table compares ownership indicators for other stocks related to Graphic Packaging:

GPKPKGWRK
Market cap$3.8 B$9.7 B$0.0 M
Total shares295.3 M94.5 M0.0 M
Float shares275.3 M92.5 M253.5 M
  - Institutional holdings (%)118.9%89.6%90.1%
  - Insider holdings (%)0.8%1.2%1.4%
Shares in short selling0.0%0.0%0.0%

GPK summary

Monday, August 19th, 2019
Open$13.09
Close$13.01
Day range$12.95 - $13.13
Previous close$12.94
Session gain0.54%
Average true range$0.41
50d mov avg$14.05
100d mov avg$13.62
200d mov avg$12.62
Daily patternlb06a
Weekly pattern

Graphic Packaging performance

Performance as an absolute value is never valid if it's not benchmarked against competitors or related stocks in the industry. We compared Graphic Packaging against and Westrock in the following table:
Stock3m6m12m
GPKGraphic Packaging2.28%3.58%-6.74%
PKG13.54%5.96%-4.39%
WRKWestrock-1.16%-11.26%-35.74%

Graphic Packaging competitors

Creating a list of competitors for Graphic Packaging it's difficult. We selected 2 public companies that are related to and can be considered as competitors of Graphic Packaging: