GPK stock: buy or sell?

GPK stock price: $14.67 0.27% At close on October 18th, 2019

Updated on:
October 18th, 2019

5

Graphic Packaging shares remained stable 0.27% to $14.67 on October 18th. Oct 18th was the third climbing day in a row, marking 1.44%.

Graphic Packaging Holding Company, together with its subsidiaries, provides paper-based packaging solutions to food, beverage, and other consumer products companies.

Should I buy GPK stock?

Trading stocks requires experience and discipline, and your buying and selling decisions must come following a methodology. That's why is so important to choose your own trading strategy that matches with your character as inversor. At Stocks2.com, we use very simple but trusted and powerful trend following trading strategies. Simple things usually work the best.

Currently, Graphic Packaging stock doesn't match any of these trading strategies, so our recommendation is not to buy.

Buy setupElegible
New all-time highNo
New 52 week highNo
Price crossing up 200d MANo
100d MA crossing up 200d MANo
This doesn't mean GPK will slide in coming sessions, or it will not rise higher. Simply, it doesn't match our recommended trading systems.

Is Graphic Packaging stock a buy?

Banks and financial institutions publish stock ratings everyday. At Stocks2.com, we gathered 5 ratings published for GPK stock in the last month.

Is GPK a good stock to buy?
DateAnalyst / BrokerPrevious ratingCurrent rating
2019-9-26KeyCorpn/aHold
2019-7-11Citigroupn/aBuy
2019-4-24UBS Groupn/aNeutral
2019-4-24KeyCorpn/aHold
2019-1-4UBS Groupn/aNeutral

GPK stock analysis

Daily outlook

Graphic Packaging shares remained steady 0.27% to $14.67 on Oct 18th.

Shares of Graphic Packaging remained constant a slightly good 0.27% and closed at $14.67. On Sep/10 GPK price bounced up over the SMA of 100 days demonstrating to be a significant support for this stock.

GPK stock chart (daily)

Weekly outlook

Shares of Graphic Packaging closed this week at $14.67 and grew a slightly fine 0.62%.

The downtrend marked by GPK has left consecutive declining peaks and bottoms. If the support holds the price, this might mark a double bottom pattern and create a flat-base to reverse this downtrend. Since mid May when SMA20w and SMA40w crossed up, GPK price gained $1.16 per share (8.59%). Since late March when GPK stock price broke up the SMA40w line, it gained $2.49 (20.44%).

GPK stock chart (weekly)

GPK stock price history

GPK IPO was on December 10th, 1992 at $2.69 per share1. Since then, GPK stock grew a 445.40%, with a yearly average of 17.10%. If you had invested right after GPK's IPO a $1,000 in GPK stock in 1992, it would worth $4,454.00 today.

1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.

GPK stock historical price chart

GPK stock reached 52-week highs on July at $15.50, and all-time highs 2018-01-16 with a price of 16.02.

GPK stock price target is $15.00

How much a stock will be priced tomorrow or next week is quite unpredictable However, many stock price predictions are published every day by banks, financial institutions and independent analysts. We do not recommend to follow these stock price predictions without a critical thinking from your side, as their accuracy is usually low. For the last month we found 2 price forecasts for Graphic Packaging stock:
GPK stock price predictions
DateAnalyst / BrokerActionPrevious targetCurrent targetDiff
2019-7-11CitigroupRaises Target$16.00$17.006.3%
2019-4-24UBS GroupRaises Target$12.50$13.004%
(in average)$14.30$15.005.0%
Moving in a range from $17.00 and $13.00, the price forecast for Graphic Packaging stock is $15.00. In average, analysts' outlook on GPK price target is positive, upgrading the prediction by a 5.00% from previous estimations.

Financials and fundamental analysis

Earnings date and Earnings per Share

After publishing its last earnings report on April, Graphic Packaging . Unfortunately, reported EPS is not yet available in our database.
GPK earnings date and EPS evolution
QuarterReporting dateEstimated EPSActual EPSSurprise
2017-Q2-n/a0.15n/a
2017-Q32017-10-240.180.180.0%
2017-Q42018-02-060.190.17-10.5%
2018-Q12018-04-240.170.1911.8%
2018-Q22018-07-240.20.18-10.0%
2018-Q32018-10-230.250.22-12.0%
2018-Q42019-01-290.190.2321.1%
2019-Q12019-04-230.18n/an/a
2019-Q2-n/an/an/a
2019-Q3-n/an/an/a

Annual financial results

In 2018, Graphic Packaging annual revenues climbed a super good 36.77% to $6,023.00 M USD from $4,403.70 marked in 2017. Instead, its income margin (compared to revenues) declined to 3.67%, that is $221.10 million.

Graphic Packaging presents anual results in December, and to compare its evolution since then, we estimate annual sales and income figures by adding results from the last 4 quarters. This is called TTM (or Twelve Trailing Months). So, Graphic Packaging TTM sales up to March 2019 were $6,052.90 and earnings $249.10 million USD. When comparing this TTM figures with the last reported annuality, we can review Graphic Packaging business evolution since December 2018: Annual turnover up to March, compared to lastest yearly report, remained steady a tight 0.50%. Regarding profit margin, Graphic Packaging stayed steady 0.44% to 3.67%

GPK annual Sales and Income evolution
YearSalesYoYIncome/(margin)YoY
2013$4,480 M-$147 M3.3%-
2014$4,241 M-5.35%$90 M2.1%-38.81%
2015$4,160 M-1.89%$230 M5.5%156.52%
2016$4,298 M3.31%$228 M5.3%-0.91%
2017$4,404 M2.46%$300 M6.8%31.67%
2018$6,023 M36.77%$221 M3.7%-26.35%
TTM $6,053 M0.50%$249 M4.1%12.66%

Quarterly financial results

Graphic Packaging posted $1,505.90 M in revenues for 2019-Q1, a -0.12% decline compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter earnings marked $57.90 million with a profit margin of 3.84%. Profit margin remained constant a 0.69% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was 3.15%. When comparing turnover to same quarter last year, Graphic Packaging sales marked a slightly fine increase and raised a 2.03%. Looking back to recent quarterly results, Graphic Packaging posted 2 positive quarters in a row.
GPK quarterly Sales and Income evolution
QuarterSales1QoQ2Income1/(margin)QoQ2
2017-Q2$1,090 M-$42 M3.9%-
2017-Q3$1,140 M4.59%$47 M4.1%12.62%
2017-Q4$1,110 M-2.64%$174 M15.7%267.65%
2018-Q1$1,476 M32.98%$30 M2.0%-82.81%
2018-Q2$1,509 M2.26%$49 M3.3%65.22%
2018-Q3$1,530 M1.37%$94 M6.2%90.89%
2018-Q4$1,508 M-1.46%$48 M3.2%-49.63%
2019-Q1$1,506 M-0.12%$58 M3.8%21.89%

Graphic Packaging ownership

When you are planning to invest in a stock, it's always worth to have a look its ownership structure.

Management staff in all public traded companies that hold equity is required to report every transaction to the SEC. For Graphic Packaging, 0.76% of all outstanding shares are owned by its staff.

Bearish positions for GPK stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.

The following table compares ownership indicators for other stocks related to Graphic Packaging:

GPKPKGWRK
Market cap$4.3 B$10.2 B$9.4 B
Total shares294.0 M94.7 M257.3 M
Float shares291.3 M92.5 M253.6 M
  - Institutional holdings (%)118.9%89.6%90.1%
  - Insider holdings (%)0.8%1.2%1.4%
Shares in short selling0.0%0.0%0.0%

GPK summary

Friday, October 18th, 2019
Open$14.61
Close$14.67
Day range$14.58 - $14.74
Previous close$14.63
Session gain0.27%
Average true range$0.25
50d mov avg$13.89
100d mov avg$13.97
200d mov avg$13.21
Daily patternlb11a
Weekly pattern lt02a

Graphic Packaging performance

To better understand Graphic Packaging performance you must compare its gains with other related stocks in same sector or industry. For Graphic Packaging, the benchmark is made against and Westrock.
Stock3m6m12m
GPKGraphic Packaging3.53%14.70%18.21%
PKG9.13%14.02%27.09%
WRKWestrock2.63%6.04%-9.47%

Graphic Packaging competitors

Choosing a list of competitors for Graphic Packaging it's difficult. We selected 2 public companies that are related to and can be considered as competitors of Graphic Packaging: