GBDC stock: buy or sell?

GBDC stock price: $9.99 3.52% At close on April 6th, 2020

Updated on:
April 6th, 2020

2

Shares of Golub Capital BDC climbed a brilliant 3.52% and closed at $9.99. On Thursday GBDC collapsed a scary -24.43%.

Golub Capital BDC, Inc. is a business development company and operates as an externally managed closed-end non-diversified management investment company.

Should I buy GBDC stock?

Make a decision about when to buy or sell stocks is one of the hardest parts of being a trader or investor. That's why is so important to choose your own trading strategy that matches with your character as inversor. At Stocks2.com, we use very simple but trusted and powerful trend following trading strategies. Simple things usually work the best.

None of our preferred buy setups matches with Golub Capital BDC stock situation right now, hence this is not a suitable entry point.

Buy setupElegible
New all-time highNo
New 52 week highNo
Price crossing up 200d MANo
100d MA crossing up 200d MANo
This doesn't mean GBDC will slide in coming sessions, or it will not rise higher. Simply, it doesn't match our recommended trading systems.

Is Golub Capital BDC stock a buy?

Banks and financial institutions post stock ratings everyday. Unfortunately, we couldn't find any rating for GBDC stock for the last month.

GBDC stock analysis

Daily outlook

Golub Capital BDC shares climbed 3.52% to $9.99 today.

Golub Capital BDC climbed a brilliant 3.52% and closed at $9.99. Since price and SMA200d lines crossed down on February 25th, GBDC fell $-7.92 per share (-44.22%). GBDC marked a lower low and a lower high in the short term, defining a downward trend. Climbing above $14.11 would break this short term down trend and open possibilities for reversing this situation.

GBDC stock chart (daily)

Weekly outlook

After sliding a frightening -32.02% in a week last week, Golub Capital BDC closed this week at $9.99 and escalated an excellent 3.52%. Late March GBDC skyrocketed an exceptional 12.40% in just one week.

Since price and 40-weeks moving average lines crossed down late February, GBDC fell $-8.06 per share (-44.65%). Stocks under the 200 days moving average line are usually not recommended for average traders. Far behind is the all-time high Golub Capital BDC hit late September 2019 and since then the price is -45.41% below that top.

GBDC stock chart (weekly)

GBDC stock price history

GBDC IPO was on April 15th, 2010 at $6.56 per share1. Since then, GBDC stock grew a 52.30%, with an average of 5.80% per year. If you had invested $1,000 in GBDC stock in 2010, it would worth $523.00 today.

1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.

GBDC stock historical price chart

GBDC stock reached all-time highs on September with a price of $18.30.

GBDC stock price target

How much a stock will be priced tomorrow or next week is quite unpredictable However, banks and other financial institutions analysts, with the help of lots of data and algorithms do their best to predict the stock prices movement. The accuracy of these stock price predictions is not very high, and you should not blindly believe and make decisions only based on what this ratings or price target predictions say. For the last 30 days we have not detected any price prediction for Golub Capital BDC stock by any trusted analyst.

Financials and fundamental analysis

Earnings date and Earnings per Share

After publishing its last earnings report on May, Golub Capital BDC . As soon as we get its posted EPS from the earnings report, we will extend this report.
GBDC earnings date and EPS evolution
QuarterReporting dateEstimated EPSActual EPSSurprise
2017-Q1-n/a0.37n/a
2017-Q2-n/a0.35n/a
2017-Q32017-11-200.320.31-3.1%
2017-Q42018-02-070.320.31-3.1%
2018-Q12018-05-070.320.320.0%
2018-Q22018-08-080.320.31-3.1%
2018-Q32018-11-280.320.320.0%
2018-Q42019-02-060.320.320.0%
2019-Q12019-05-060.32n/an/a
2019-Q2-n/an/an/a

Annual financial results

Compared to 2017, last anual turnover report draw a wonderful increase of 10.46% to $152.17 M USD. When comparing 2018 vs 2017, nonetheless, profit margin (that is, the net income divided by revenues) slipped a -5.86% to 53.87%.

To have an updated picture of the financial situation of Golub Capital BDC, we have calculated the trailing twelve month (TTM) sales and income figures. TTM values are the sum of the last 4 quarters and aproximate to an annual fiscal report ending in 2019-Q1 that can be compared to 2018 fiscal year results. Annual Golub Capital BDC TTM sales up to were $190.39 and earnings were $56.06 million USD. If we compare this TTM figures with the last reported annuality, we can review Golub Capital BDC business evolution since September 2018: Annual turnover up to , compared to lastest yearly report, skyrocketed a dazzling 25.11%. Nevertheless, profit margin (net income/sales) plunged at 53.87%.

GBDC annual Sales and Income evolution
YearSalesYoYIncome/(margin)YoY
2013$82 M-$47 M56.4%-
2014$110 M32.90%$65 M59.7%40.56%
2015$120 M9.53%$71 M59.0%8.26%
2016$128 M6.59%$69 M54.1%-2.24%
2017$138 M7.74%$82 M59.7%18.91%
2018$152 M10.46%$82 M53.9%-0.39%
TTM $190 M25.11%$56 M29.4%-31.61%

Quarterly financial results

Golub Capital BDC posted million in revenues for 2019-Q1, a -100.00% decline compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter earnings marked M with a profit margin of . Profit margin remained steady a 0.00% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was 46.79%. When comparing revenues to same quarter last year, Golub Capital BDC sales marked a dreadful decrease and plummed a -100.00%. Looking back to recent quarterly results, Golub Capital BDC posted 2 positive quarters in a row.
GBDC quarterly Sales and Income evolution
QuarterSales1QoQ2Income1/(margin)QoQ2
2017-Q1$34 M-$21 M60.6%-
2017-Q2$32 M-5.96%$20 M62.5%-3.04%
2017-Q3$136 M323.42%$22 M16.5%11.65%
2017-Q4$36 M-73.27%$21 M58.5%-5.07%
2018-Q1$1 M-98.18%$23 M3479.2%8.06%
2018-Q2$0 M-30.66%$22 M4732.0%-5.70%
2018-Q3$151 M32,692.16%$16 M10.6%-26.78%
2018-Q4$39 M-73.82%$18 M46.8%15.95%

Golub Capital BDC ownership

When you are planning to invest in a stock, it's always worth to have a look its ownership structure.

Golub Capital BDC shares owned by insiders (that is, founders, CEO, CTO, main executives or other management staff) currently counts a 4.78% of all shares.

In case of Golub Capital BDC stock, 43.30% of its shares are held by institutions (mutual funds, pension funds, big banks and other large financial institutions).

For a better context understanding, the next table shows ownership data compared to other related stocks:

GBDC
Market cap$1.3 B
Total shares133.8 M
Float shares0.0 M
  - Institutional holdings (%)43.3%
  - Insider holdings (%)4.8%
Shares in short selling0.0%

GBDC summary

Monday, April 6th, 2020
Open$10.00
Close$9.99
Day range$9.90 - $10.54
Previous close$9.65
Session gain3.52%
Average true range$1.44
50d mov avg$15.51
100d mov avg$16.59
200d mov avg$16.93
Daily patternlb06a
Weekly pattern

Golub Capital BDC performance

To measure stock performance is always good to benchmark with competitors or related stocks. We compared Golub Capital BDC against in the following table:
Stock3m6m12m
GBDCGolub Capital BDC-44.31%-41.82%-40.43%

Golub Capital BDC competitors

Unfortunately, we could not find any public company that could be defined as Golub Capital BDC competitor. This doesn't mean Golub Capital BDC does not have any competitor in the market, it's just we could not detected it.