Freshpet stock: buy or sell?

FRPT stock price: $55.28 0.58% At close on November 15th, 2019

Updated on:
November 15th, 2019

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After marking all time highs on Tuesday, Freshpet inched 0.58% to $55.28.

Freshpet, Inc. manufactures and markets natural fresh, refrigerated meals, and treats for dogs and cats in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom.

Should I buy Freshpet stock?

You can't be a successful trader if you don't follow a methodolgy or system that assist you in choosing companies and the correct market timing. That's why is so important to choose your own trading plan that fits your character as inversor. At Stocks2.com, we like to use very simple but trusted and powerful trend following trading strategies. Simple things usually work the best.

These 2 buy setups match with Freshpet stock right now:

Buy setupElegible
New all-time highYes
New 52 week highYes
Price crossing up 200d MANo
100d MA crossing up 200d MANo

Is Freshpet stock a buy?

Everyday, hundreds of stock ratings are published by financial analysts to indicate a particular stock's attractiveness. At Stocks2.com, we collected 5 ratings published for FRPT stock in the last month.

Is FRPT a good stock to buy?
DateAnalyst / BrokerPrevious ratingCurrent rating
2019-8-6SunTrust BanksHoldNeutral
2019-7-30JPMorgan Chase & Co.n/aNeutral
2019-6-18SunTrust BanksBuyHold
2019-3-5Credit Suisse Groupn/aNeutral
2019-3-4Imperial CapitalPositiveIn-Line

Freshpet stock analysis

Daily outlook

After reaching all time highs on Tuesday, Freshpet inched 0.58% on November 15th to $55.28.

After marking all time highs on Tuesday, Freshpet inched 0.58% to $55.28. On August FRPT price bounced up over the SMA of 200 days demonstrating to be a significant support for this stock. In the last 41 days when SMA50d and SMA100d crossed up, FRPT price gained $5.56 per share (11.18%). On Tuesday, FRPT hit a new all time high, pushing higher than on Nov/7 tops. Check different trading setups that use ATHs as triggers.

FRPT stock chart (daily)

Weekly outlook

Despite of the red candle ($55.28, -0.11%), Freshpet marked new all time high at $56.50. Last week FRPT skyrocketed an outstanding 6.56% in just one week. This week broke a streak of 4 green weeks. Early October FRPT plummed a bloodcurdling -6.10% in just one week.

FRPT shows a strong mid-term uptrend with several rising tops and rising bottoms. Since its last bottom last week, FRPT climbed unceasignly breaking out to new all time highs. By mid August FRPT price bounced up over the SMA of 40 weeks that acted as support stopping new slides. Since late September when SMA10w and SMA20w crossed up, FRPT price gained $6.70 per share (13.79%).

FRPT stock chart (weekly)

Freshpet stock price history

Freshpet IPO was on November 7th, 2014 at $19.75 per share1. Since then, FRPT stock surged a 179.90%, with an average of 36.00% per year. If you had invested $1,000 in Freshpet stock in 2014, it would worth $1,799.00 today.

1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.

Freshpet stock historical price chart

FRPT stock reached all-time highs on Tuesday with a price of $56.50.

Freshpet stock price target is $41.80

Predicting the price evolution of a stock or any financial instrument in a reliable and repeatable way is probably impossible. However, many stock price predictions are published every day by banks, financial institutions and independent analysts. We do not recommend to follow these stock price predictions without a critical thinking from your side, as their accuracy is usually low. For the last 30 days we found 4 price forecasts for Freshpet stock:
FRPT stock price predictions
DateAnalyst / BrokerActionPrevious targetCurrent targetDiff
2019-8-6SunTrust BanksLowers Targetn/a$45.00-
2019-7-30JPMorgan Chase & Co.Initiatesn/a$46.00-
2019-3-5Credit Suisse GroupReiterates$32.00$36.0012.5%
2019-3-4Imperial CapitalReiterates$35.00$40.0014.3%
(in average)$33.50$41.8025.0%
Moving in a range from $46.00 and $36.00, the price prediction for Freshpet stock is $41.80. In average, analysts' outlook on FRPT price target is positive, increasing the forecast by a 25.00% from previous estimations.

Financials and fundamental analysis

Earnings date and Earnings per Share

On February, Freshpet didn't meet the expectations of the analysts and reported a bloodcurdling EPS of $0.05 per share when experts were expecting $0.10.
FRPT earnings date and EPS evolution
QuarterReporting dateEstimated EPSActual EPSSurprise
2017-Q1-n/a-0.09n/a
2017-Q2-n/a-0.08n/a
2017-Q3-n/a-0.01n/a
2017-Q42018-03-050.060.04-33.3%
2018-Q12018-05-07-0.07-0.1n/a
2018-Q22018-08-06-0.07-0.1n/a
2018-Q32018-11-050.03n/an/a
2018-Q42019-02-260.10.05-50.0%
2019-Q1-n/an/an/a
2019-Q2-n/an/an/a

Annual financial results

In 2018, Freshpet annual turnover climbed an astounding 26.83% to $193.24 M USD from $152.36 marked in 2017. Instead, its earnings margin (compared to revenues) remained stable to -2.77%, that is $-5.36 million.

FRPT annual Sales and Income evolution
YearSalesYoYIncome/(margin)YoY
2013$63 M-$-21.69 M-34.3%-
2014$87 M37.39%$-37.34 M-43.0%72.15%
2015$116 M33.91%$-3.71 M-3.2%-90.06%
2016$133 M14.52%$-3.16 M-2.4%-14.83%
2017$152 M14.51%$-4.26 M-2.8%34.86%
2018$193 M26.83%$-5.36 M-2.8%25.78%

Quarterly financial results

Freshpet posted $51.64 M in sales for 2018-Q4, a 1.66% up compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter earnings marked $1.76 M with a profit margin of 3.40%. Profit margin stepped up a 3.59% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was -0.19%. When comparing revenues to same quarter last year, Freshpet sales marked an extraordinary gain and skyrocketed a 17.78%. Looking back to recent quarterly results, Freshpet posted 3 negative quarters in a row.
FRPT quarterly Sales and Income evolution
QuarterSales1QoQ2Income1/(margin)QoQ2
2017-Q1$35 M-$-2.88 M-8.3%-
2017-Q2$40 M15.82%$-2.65 M-6.6%-7.99%
2017-Q3$41 M3.08%$-0.25 M-0.6%-90.73%
2017-Q4$44 M6.43%$1.51 M3.5%-716.94%
2018-Q1$43 M-1.55%$-3.52 M-8.2%-332.42%
2018-Q2$48 M10.32%$-3.50 M-7.4%-0.58%
2018-Q3$51 M6.67%$-0.10 M-0.2%-97.22%
2018-Q4$52 M1.66%$1.76 M3.4%-1,908.68%

Freshpet ownership

When you are planning to buy shares of a stock, it's always worth to review its ownership structure.

Management staff in all public traded companies that hold equity is required to report every transaction to the SEC. For Freshpet, 4.60% of all outstanding shares are owned by its staff.

Bearish positions for FRPT stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.

For a better understanding, the next table shows ownership data compared to other related stocks:

FRPTPAHCPOSTSMG
Market cap$2.0 B$470.5 M$7.8 B$5.9 B
Total shares36.1 M20.3 M73.1 M55.5 M
Float shares34.3 M20.2 M62.7 M40.0 M
  - Institutional holdings (%)98.5%101.8%101.2%66.7%
  - Insider holdings (%)4.6%0.4%5.2%29.5%
Shares in short selling0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Freshpet summary

Friday, November 15th, 2019
Open$55.02
Close$55.28
Day range$54.39 - $55.68
Previous close$54.96
Session gain0.58%
Average true range$1.92
50d mov avg$50.51
100d mov avg$47.43
200d mov avg$45.33
Daily pattern
Weekly pattern lb03c

Freshpet performance

Stocks performance is always measured in comparision to the market or competitors and related stocks in the same industry. We compared Freshpet against Phibro Animal Health, Post and Scotts Miracle-Gro in the following table:
Stock3m6m12m
FRPTFreshpet34.31%16.77%55.94%
PAHCPhibro Animal Hea...-25.27%-18.92%-32.39%
POSTPost9.05%-2.60%10.73%
SMGScotts Miracle-Gr...-3.72%22.60%38.30%

Freshpet competitors

One check before trading any stock is to have a look a list of its competitors, in this case for Freshpet. We chose 3 companies as Freshpet competitors as they are in the same industry or have similar market objectives.