Freshpet stock: buy or sell?
November 15th, 2019
Freshpet, Inc. manufactures and markets natural fresh, refrigerated meals, and treats for dogs and cats in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom.
Should I buy Freshpet stock?You can't be a successful trader if you don't follow a methodolgy or system that assist you in choosing companies and the correct market timing. That's why is so important to choose your own trading plan that fits your character as inversor. At Stocks2.com, we like to use very simple but trusted and powerful trend following trading strategies. Simple things usually work the best.
These 2 buy setups match with Freshpet stock right now:
|New all-time high||Yes|
|New 52 week high||Yes|
|Price crossing up 200d MA||No|
|100d MA crossing up 200d MA||No|
Is Freshpet stock a buy?
Everyday, hundreds of stock ratings are published by financial analysts to indicate a particular stock's attractiveness.At Stocks2.com, we collected 5 ratings published for FRPT stock in the last month.
|Date||Analyst / Broker||Previous rating||Current rating|
|2019-7-30||JPMorgan Chase & Co.||n/a||Neutral|
|2019-3-5||Credit Suisse Group||n/a||Neutral|
Freshpet stock analysis
After reaching all time highs on Tuesday, Freshpet inched 0.58% on November 15th to $55.28.
After marking all time highs on Tuesday, Freshpet inched 0.58% to $55.28. On August FRPT price bounced up over the SMA of 200 days demonstrating to be a significant support for this stock. In the last 41 days when SMA50d and SMA100d crossed up, FRPT price gained $5.56 per share (11.18%). On Tuesday, FRPT hit a new all time high, pushing higher than on Nov/7 tops. Check different trading setups that use ATHs as triggers.
Despite of the red candle ($55.28, -0.11%), Freshpet marked new all time high at $56.50. Last week FRPT skyrocketed an outstanding 6.56% in just one week. This week broke a streak of 4 green weeks. Early October FRPT plummed a bloodcurdling -6.10% in just one week.
FRPT shows a strong mid-term uptrend with several rising tops and rising bottoms. Since its last bottom last week, FRPT climbed unceasignly breaking out to new all time highs. By mid August FRPT price bounced up over the SMA of 40 weeks that acted as support stopping new slides. Since late September when SMA10w and SMA20w crossed up, FRPT price gained $6.70 per share (13.79%).
Freshpet stock price history
Freshpet IPO was on November 7th, 2014 at $19.75 per share1. Since then, FRPT stock surged a 179.90%, with an average of 36.00% per year. If you had invested $1,000 in Freshpet stock in 2014, it would worth $1,799.00 today.
1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.
Freshpet stock historical price chart
FRPT stock reached all-time highs on Tuesday with a price of $56.50.
Freshpet stock price target is $41.80Predicting the price evolution of a stock or any financial instrument in a reliable and repeatable way is probably impossible. However, many stock price predictions are published every day by banks, financial institutions and independent analysts. We do not recommend to follow these stock price predictions without a critical thinking from your side, as their accuracy is usually low. For the last 30 days we found 4 price forecasts for Freshpet stock:
|Date||Analyst / Broker||Action||Previous target||Current target||Diff|
|2019-8-6||SunTrust Banks||Lowers Target||n/a||$45.00||-|
|2019-7-30||JPMorgan Chase & Co.||Initiates||n/a||$46.00||-|
|2019-3-5||Credit Suisse Group||Reiterates||$32.00||$36.00||12.5%|
Financials and fundamental analysis
Earnings date and Earnings per ShareOn February, Freshpet didn't meet the expectations of the analysts and reported a bloodcurdling EPS of $0.05 per share when experts were expecting $0.10.
|Quarter||Reporting date||Estimated EPS||Actual EPS||Surprise|
Annual financial resultsIn 2018, Freshpet annual turnover climbed an astounding 26.83% to $193.24 M USD from $152.36 marked in 2017. Instead, its earnings margin (compared to revenues) remained stable to -2.77%, that is $-5.36 million.
|2013||$63 M||-||$-21.69 M-34.3%||-|
|2014||$87 M||37.39%||$-37.34 M-43.0%||72.15%|
|2015||$116 M||33.91%||$-3.71 M-3.2%||-90.06%|
|2016||$133 M||14.52%||$-3.16 M-2.4%||-14.83%|
|2017||$152 M||14.51%||$-4.26 M-2.8%||34.86%|
|2018||$193 M||26.83%||$-5.36 M-2.8%||25.78%|
Quarterly financial resultsFreshpet posted $51.64 M in sales for 2018-Q4, a 1.66% up compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter earnings marked $1.76 M with a profit margin of 3.40%. Profit margin stepped up a 3.59% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was -0.19%. When comparing revenues to same quarter last year, Freshpet sales marked an extraordinary gain and skyrocketed a 17.78%. Looking back to recent quarterly results, Freshpet posted 3 negative quarters in a row.
|2017-Q1||$35 M||-||$-2.88 M-8.3%||-|
|2017-Q2||$40 M||15.82%||$-2.65 M-6.6%||-7.99%|
|2017-Q3||$41 M||3.08%||$-0.25 M-0.6%||-90.73%|
|2017-Q4||$44 M||6.43%||$1.51 M3.5%||-716.94%|
|2018-Q1||$43 M||-1.55%||$-3.52 M-8.2%||-332.42%|
|2018-Q2||$48 M||10.32%||$-3.50 M-7.4%||-0.58%|
|2018-Q3||$51 M||6.67%||$-0.10 M-0.2%||-97.22%|
|2018-Q4||$52 M||1.66%||$1.76 M3.4%||-1,908.68%|
Freshpet ownershipWhen you are planning to buy shares of a stock, it's always worth to review its ownership structure.
Management staff in all public traded companies that hold equity is required to report every transaction to the SEC. For Freshpet, 4.60% of all outstanding shares are owned by its staff.
Bearish positions for FRPT stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.
For a better understanding, the next table shows ownership data compared to other related stocks:
|Market cap||$2.0 B||$470.5 M||$7.8 B||$5.9 B|
|Total shares||36.1 M||20.3 M||73.1 M||55.5 M|
|Float shares||34.3 M||20.2 M||62.7 M||40.0 M|
|- Institutional holdings (%)||98.5%||101.8%||101.2%||66.7%|
|- Insider holdings (%)||4.6%||0.4%||5.2%||29.5%|
|Shares in short selling||0.0%||0.0%||0.0%||0.0%|
|Friday, November 15th, 2019|
|Day range||$54.39 - $55.68|
|Average true range||$1.92|
|50d mov avg||$50.51|
|100d mov avg||$47.43|
|200d mov avg||$45.33|
Freshpet performanceStocks performance is always measured in comparision to the market or competitors and related stocks in the same industry. We compared Freshpet against Phibro Animal Health, Post and Scotts Miracle-Gro in the following table:
|PAHCPhibro Animal Hea...||-25.27%||-18.92%||-32.39%|