Freshpet stock: buy or sell?

FRPT stock price: $66.41 -1.01% At close on February 27th, 2020

Updated on:
February 27th, 2020

0

After sliding a frightening -10.30% yesterday, Freshpet closed today at $66.41 and slightly fell a lame -1.01%.

Freshpet, Inc. manufactures and markets natural fresh, refrigerated meals, and treats for dogs and cats in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom.

Should I buy Freshpet stock?

Trading stocks requires experience and discipline, and your buying and selling decisions must come following a methodology. Having a trading strategy helps to make decisions easier, quicker and with less hesitations. There are thousands of trading strategies for you to choose, but at Stocks2.com we prefer those that are simple but successful.

Currently, Freshpet stock doesn't match any of these trading strategies, so our recommendation is not to buy.

Buy setupElegible
New all-time highNo
New 52 week highNo
Price crossing up 200d MANo
100d MA crossing up 200d MANo
This doesn't mean FRPT will slide in coming sessions, or it will not rise higher. Simply, it doesn't match our recommended trading systems.

Is Freshpet stock a buy?

Banks and financial institutions post stock ratings everyday. Unfortunately, we couldn't find any rating for FRPT stock for the last month.

Freshpet stock analysis

Daily outlook

Freshpet slightly fell -1.01% today to $66.41 after reaching all time highs on Friday.

After sliding a frightening -10.30% yesterday, Freshpet closed today at $66.41 and slightly fell a lame -1.01%. FRPT is retaking the upward trend marking a new rising bottom heading to break out over $81.29. On October FRPT price bounced up over the SMA of 100 days demonstrating to be a significant support for this stock. On Friday, FRPT hit a new all time high, pushing higher than on Feb/20 tops. Check different trading setups that use ATHs as triggers.

FRPT stock chart (daily)

Weekly outlook

Shares of Freshpet plummed a bloodcurdling -10.55% this week. By mid February FRPT rocketed an exceptional 8.50% in just one week.

Freshpet stock is trading in the range of its last top and last bottom. Loosing would mean breaking the current uptrend. Breakdowns under last bottom are selling point signals for some trading strategies. Not so far away is the last price record Freshpet marked last week, but since then it dropped a 18.30%. By mid August 2019 FRPT price bounced up over the SMA of 40 weeks that acted as support stopping new slides. Since late September 2019 when SMA10w and SMA20w crossed up, FRPT price gained $17.83 per share (36.70%).

FRPT stock chart (weekly)

Freshpet stock price history

Freshpet stock went public on November 7th, 2014 with a price of $19.751. Since then, FRPT stock grew a 236.30%, with an average of 47.30% per year. If you had invested right after FRPT's IPO a $1,000 in Freshpet stock in 2014, it would worth $2,363.00 today.

1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.

Freshpet stock historical price chart

FRPT stock reached all-time highs on Friday with a price of $81.29.

Freshpet stock price target

How much a stock will be priced tomorrow or next week is quite unpredictable However, banks and other financial institutions analysts, with the help of lots of data and algorithms do their best to predict the stock prices movement. The accuracy of these stock price predictions is not very high, and you should not blindly believe and make decisions only based on what this ratings or price target predictions say. For the last 30 days we have not detected any price prediction for Freshpet stock by any trusted analyst.

Financials and fundamental analysis

Earnings date and Earnings per Share

, Freshpet missed the expectations of the analysts and posted a scary EPS of $0.05 per share when experts were expecting $0.10.
FRPT earnings date and EPS evolution
QuarterReporting dateEstimated EPSActual EPSSurprise
2017-Q1-n/a-0.09n/a
2017-Q2-n/a-0.08n/a
2017-Q3-n/a-0.01n/a
2017-Q42018-03-050.060.04-33.3%
2018-Q12018-05-07-0.07-0.1n/a
2018-Q22018-08-06-0.07-0.1n/a
2018-Q32018-11-050.03n/an/a
2018-Q42019-02-260.10.05-50.0%
2019-Q1-n/an/an/a
2019-Q2-n/an/an/a

Annual financial results

In 2018, Freshpet annual sales climbed a dazzling 26.83% to $193.24 M USD from $152.36 marked in 2017. When comparing 2018 vs 2017, however, profit margin (that is, the net income divided by revenues) remained constant a 0.02% to -2.77%.

FRPT annual Sales and Income evolution
YearSalesYoYIncome/(margin)YoY
2013$63 M-$-21.69 M-34.3%-
2014$87 M37.39%$-37.34 M-43.0%72.15%
2015$116 M33.91%$-3.71 M-3.2%-90.06%
2016$133 M14.52%$-3.16 M-2.4%-14.83%
2017$152 M14.51%$-4.26 M-2.8%34.86%
2018$193 M26.83%$-5.36 M-2.8%25.78%

Quarterly financial results

Freshpet reported $51.64 million in revenues for 2018-Q4, a 1.66% improvement compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter income marked $1.76 million with a profit margin of 3.40%. Profit margin raised a 3.59% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was -0.19%. When comparing revenues to same quarter last year, Freshpet sales marked an extraordinary growth and boosted a 17.78%. Looking back to recent quarterly results, Freshpet posted 3 positive quarters in a row.
FRPT quarterly Sales and Income evolution
QuarterSales1QoQ2Income1/(margin)QoQ2
2017-Q1$35 M-$-2.88 M-8.3%-
2017-Q2$40 M15.82%$-2.65 M-6.6%-7.99%
2017-Q3$41 M3.08%$-0.25 M-0.6%-90.73%
2017-Q4$44 M6.43%$1.51 M3.5%-716.94%
2018-Q1$43 M-1.55%$-3.52 M-8.2%-332.42%
2018-Q2$48 M10.32%$-3.50 M-7.4%-0.58%
2018-Q3$51 M6.67%$-0.10 M-0.2%-97.22%
2018-Q4$52 M1.66%$1.76 M3.4%-1,908.68%

Freshpet ownership

When you are planning to invest in shares of a stock, it's worth to check its ownership structure.

Management staff in all public traded companies that hold equity is required to report every transaction to the SEC. For Freshpet, 4.45% of all outstanding shares are owned by its staff.

Bearish positions for FRPT stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.

The following table compares ownership indicators for other stocks related to Freshpet:

FRPT
Market cap$2.4 B
Total shares36.1 M
Float shares34.4 M
  - Institutional holdings (%)100.0%
  - Insider holdings (%)4.5%
Shares in short selling0.0%

Freshpet summary

Thursday, February 27th, 2020
Open$69.69
Close$66.41
Day range$66.38 - $69.75
Previous close$67.09
Session gain-1.01%
Average true range$3.80
50d mov avg$64.57
100d mov avg$58.51
200d mov avg$52.39
Daily patternlb02a
Weekly pattern lt06a

Freshpet performance

To better understand Freshpet performance you must becnhmark its gains with other related stocks in same sector or industry. In the following table, we compare Freshpet performance to :
Stock3m6m12m
FRPTFreshpet23.58%35.31%62.41%

Freshpet competitors

Unfortunately, we could not find any public company that could be defined as Freshpet competitor. This doesn't mean Freshpet does not have any competitor in the market, it's just we could not detected it.