FRAN stock: buy or sell?

FRAN stock price: $7.77 -7.50% At close on January 24th, 2020

Updated on:
January 24th, 2020

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Francesca's plunged a frightening -7.50% and closed at $7.77. With January/24 it's been 5 sliding days in a row, loosing $-1.72 (-19.01%). On Jan 15th FRAN boosted an extraordinary 6.30%.

Francesca's Holdings Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates a chain of retail boutiques. It offers fashion apparel, jewelry, accessories, and gifts primarily for women between the ages of 18 and 35.

Should I buy FRAN stock?

Trading stocks requires experience and discipline, and your buying and selling decisions must come following a methodology. That's why is so important to define your own trading plan that matches with your character as inversor. At Stocks2.com, we like to use very simple but trusted and powerful trend following trading strategies. Simple things usually work the best.

None of our preferred buy setups matches with Francesca's stock situation right now, therefore this is not a suitable entry point.

Buy setupElegible
New all-time highNo
New 52 week highNo
Price crossing up 200d MANo
100d MA crossing up 200d MANo
This is not a selling recommendation at all, just it's not the best moment to buy if you follow any of these trading strategies.

Is Francesca's stock a buy?

Banks and financial institutions publish stock ratings everyday. Unfortunately, we couldn't find any rating for FRAN stock for the last month.

FRAN stock analysis

Daily outlook

Shares of Francesca's closed on January 24th at $7.77 and plunged a frightening -7.50%.

Francesca's shares plunged -7.50% to $7.77 on Jan 24th. Since October when SMA100d and SMA200d crossed up, FRAN price slipped $-9.95 per share (-56.15%).

FRAN stock chart (daily)

Weekly outlook

Shares of Francesca's ended this week at $7.77 and plunged a bloodcurdling -15.91%. Early December FRAN rocketed an astounding 16.26% in just one week.

Since late October 2019 when SMA20w and SMA40w crossed up, FRAN price slipped $-11.43 per share (-59.53%).

FRAN stock chart (weekly)

FRAN stock price history

FRAN IPO was on July 22nd, 2011 at $276.00 per share1. Since then, FRAN stock lost a -97.20%, with a yearly average of -12.20%.

1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.

FRAN stock historical price chart

FRAN stock reached 52-week highs on October at $21.95, and all-time highs 2012-09-04 with a price of 445.08.

FRAN stock price target

Predicting the price evolution of a stock or any financial instrument in a reliable and repeatable way is probably impossible. However, many stock price predictions are published every day by banks, financial institutions and independent analysts. The accuracy of these stock price predictions is not very high, and you should not blindly believe and make decisions only based on what this ratings or price target predictions say. For the last 30 days we have not detected any price target for Francesca's stock by any trusted analyst.

Financials and fundamental analysis

Earnings date and Earnings per Share

Francesca's let down analysts when it reported an Earnings per Share (EPS) of $-0.17 when the market consensus was $-0.18.
FRAN earnings date and EPS evolution
QuarterReporting dateEstimated EPSActual EPSSurprise
2017-Q1-n/a0.39n/a
2017-Q2-n/a0.12n/a
2017-Q3-n/a0.2n/a
2017-Q42018-03-270.190.25.3%
2018-Q12018-03-270.190.25.3%
2018-Q22018-06-05-0.11-0.11n/a
2018-Q32018-09-110.040.01-75.0%
2018-Q42018-12-11-0.18-0.17n/a
2019-Q1-n/an/an/a
2019-Q2-n/an/an/a

Annual financial results

Compared to 2017, last anual turnover report draw a tight move of 0.00% to $471.68 M dollars. Aligned with this, its earnings margin (compared to sales) stayed stable to 3.30%, that is $15.56 million.

To have an updated view of the financial situation of Francesca's, we have calculated the trailing twelve month (TTM) sales and income figures. TTM values are the sum of the last 4 quarters and aproximate to an annual fiscal report ending in 2018-Q4 that can be compared to 2018 fiscal year results. Annual Francesca's TTM sales up to October 2018 were $447.30 and income was $-15.93 M USD. When comparing this TTM figures with the last reported annuality, we can review Francesca's business evolution since January 2018: Annual revenues up to October, compared to lastest yearly report, dropped a fatal -5.17%. Regarding profit margin, Francesca's eased -6.86% to 3.30%

FRAN annual Sales and Income evolution
YearSalesYoYIncome/(margin)YoY
2013$340 M-$45 M13.2%-
2014$340 M0.00%$45 M13.2%0.00%
2014$378 M10.92%$32 M8.5%-28.39%
2015$377 M0.00%$32 M8.5%-0.01%
2015$439 M16.39%$38 M8.7%18.82%
2016$439 M0.00%$38 M8.7%0.01%
2016$487 M10.88%$42 M8.6%10.09%
2017$487 M0.00%$42 M8.6%0.00%
2017$472 M-3.18%$16 M3.3%-62.95%
2018$472 M0.00%$16 M3.3%0.01%
TTM $447 M-5.17%$-15.93 M-3.6%-202.36%

Quarterly financial results

Francesca's reported $95.38 M in revenues for 2018-Q4, a -15.62% less compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter earnings marked $-16.22 M with a profit margin of -17.01%. Profit margin plummed a -17.41% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was 0.40%. When comparing sales to same quarter last year, Francesca's sales marked a terrifying loss and slipped a -9.85%.
FRAN quarterly Sales and Income evolution
QuarterSales1QoQ2Income1/(margin)QoQ2
2017-Q1$146 M-$14.64 M10.0%-
2017-Q2$108 M-26.42%$4.33 M4.0%-70.42%
2017-Q3$120 M11.16%$7.26 M6.1%67.67%
2017-Q4$106 M-11.63%$0.24 M0.2%-96.71%
2018-Q1$138 M30.91%$3.73 M2.7%1,459.00%
2018-Q2$100 M-27.50%$-3.89 M-3.9%-204.27%
2018-Q3$113 M12.57%$0.45 M0.4%-111.69%
2018-Q4$95 M-15.62%$-16.22 M-17.0%-3,673.35%

Francesca's ownership

When you are planning to buy a company, it's always worth to overview its ownership structure.

Management staff in all public traded companies that hold equity is required to report every transaction to the SEC. For Francesca's, 5.76% of all outstanding shares are owned by its staff.

In case of Francesca's stock, 72.39% of its shares are held by institutions (mutual funds, pension funds, big banks and other large financial institutions). Bearish positions for FRAN stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.

The following table compares ownership indicators for other stocks related to Francesca's:

FRAN
Market cap$23.8 M
Total shares3.1 M
Float shares2.0 M
  - Institutional holdings (%)72.4%
  - Insider holdings (%)5.8%
Shares in short selling0.0%

FRAN summary

Friday, January 24th, 2020
Open$8.40
Close$7.77
Day range$7.45 - $8.44
Previous close$8.40
Session gain-7.50%
Average true range$0.60
50d mov avg$12.00
100d mov avg$13.46
200d mov avg$9.45
Daily pattern
Weekly pattern lt03c

Francesca's performance

To better understand Francesca's performance you must compare its gains with other related stocks in same sector or industry. In the following table, we compare Francesca's to :
Stock3m6m12m
FRANFrancesca's-59.53%145.11%-18.04%

Francesca's competitors

Unfortunately, we could not find any public company that could be defined as Francesca's competitor. This doesn't mean Francesca's does not have any competitor in the market, it's just we could not detected it.