FRAN stock: buy or sell?

FRAN stock price: $11.16 -24.80% At close on September 20th, 2019

Updated on:
September 20th, 2019

2

After boosting an exceptional 7.01% yesterday, Francesca's closed today at $11.16 and plunged a dreadful -24.80%.

Francesca's Holdings Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates a chain of retail boutiques. It offers fashion apparel, jewelry, accessories, and gifts primarily for women between the ages of 18 and 35.

Should I buy FRAN stock?

Make a decision about when to buy or sell stocks is one of the hardest parts of being a trader or investor. That's why is so important to define your own trading strategy that fits your character as inversor. There are thousands of trading strategies for you to choose, but at Stocks2.com we prefer those that are simple but successful.

None of our preferred buy setups matches with Francesca's stock situation right now, therefore this is not a suitable entry point.

Buy setupElegible
New all-time highNo
New 52 week highNo
Price crossing up 200d MANo
100d MA crossing up 200d MANo
This doesn't mean FRAN will slide in coming sessions, or it will not rise higher. Simply, it doesn't match our recommended trading systems.

Is Francesca's stock a buy?

Financial institutions and banks post stock ratings everyday. Unfortunately, we couldn't find any rating for FRAN stock for the last 30 days.

FRAN stock analysis

Daily outlook

After boosting an exceptional 7.01% yesterday, Francesca's closed today at $11.16 and plunged a dreadful -24.80%.

After boosting an exceptional 7.01% yesterday, Francesca's closed today at $11.16 and plunged a dreadful -24.80%. In the last 10 days when FRAN stock price broke up the SMA200d line, it gained $6.00 (116.28%). From a daily perspective, FRAN is in a short term uptrend after plotting its last bottom ($4.19, on September/4) higher than the previous bottom, and its last top ($19.49, on September 13th) also over the previous top. Now trading in between its last bottom and last top FRAN might consolidate in a plain range, waiting to break out over $19.49 or down under $4.19.

FRAN stock chart (daily)

Weekly outlook

After boosting an amazing 73.21% in a week last week, Francesca's closed this week at $11.16 and plummed a frightening -38.48%.

Since last week when FRAN stock price broke up the SMA40w line, it gained $6.30 (129.63%).

FRAN stock chart (weekly)

FRAN stock price history

FRAN IPO was on July 22nd, 2011 at $276.00 per share1. Since then, FRAN stock declined a -96.00%, with a yearly average of -12.00%.

1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.

FRAN stock historical price chart

FRAN stock reached 52-week highs at $52.32, and all-time highs 2012-09-04 with a price of 445.08.

FRAN stock price target

How much a stock will be priced tomorrow or next week is quite unpredictable However, financial institutions invest time and resources to provide the most accurated estimations to help investors to make their decisions. The accuracy of these stock price predictions is not very high, and you should not blindly believe and make decisions only based on what this ratings or price target predictions say. For the last 30 days we have not found any price prediction for Francesca's stock by any trusted analyst.

Financials and fundamental analysis

Earnings date and Earnings per Share

On December, Francesca's didn't meet the estimates of the experts and reported a bad EPS of $-0.17 per share when experts were expecting $-0.18.
FRAN earnings date and EPS evolution
QuarterReporting dateEstimated EPSActual EPSSurprise
2017-Q1-n/a0.39n/a
2017-Q2-n/a0.12n/a
2017-Q3-n/a0.2n/a
2017-Q42018-03-270.190.25.3%
2018-Q12018-03-270.190.25.3%
2018-Q22018-06-05-0.11-0.11n/a
2018-Q32018-09-110.040.01-75.0%
2018-Q42018-12-11-0.18-0.17n/a
2019-Q1-n/an/an/a
2019-Q2-n/an/an/a

Annual financial results

Compared to 2017, last anual revenues report draw a tight movement of 0.00% to $471.68 million dollars. Likewise, its profit margin (compared to revenues) stayed stable to 3.30%, that is $15.56 million.

Francesca's fiscal year ends in January, and to compare its evolution since then, we estimate annual sales and income figures by adding results from the last 4 quarters. This is called TTM (or Twelve Trailing Months). So, Francesca's TTM sales up to October 2018 were $447.30 and earnings $-15.93 M USD. If we compare this TTM figures with the last reported annuality, we can review Francesca's business evolution since January 2018: Annual revenues up to October, compared to lastest yearly report, eased a tragic -5.17%. Aligned with this, profit margin (net income/revenues) fell at 3.30%.

FRAN annual Sales and Income evolution
YearSalesYoYIncome/(margin)YoY
2013$340 M-$45 M13.2%-
2014$340 M0.00%$45 M13.2%0.00%
2014$378 M10.92%$32 M8.5%-28.39%
2015$377 M0.00%$32 M8.5%-0.01%
2015$439 M16.39%$38 M8.7%18.82%
2016$439 M0.00%$38 M8.7%0.01%
2016$487 M10.88%$42 M8.6%10.09%
2017$487 M0.00%$42 M8.6%0.00%
2017$472 M-3.18%$16 M3.3%-62.95%
2018$472 M0.00%$16 M3.3%0.01%
TTM $447 M-5.17%$-15.93 M-3.6%-202.36%

Quarterly financial results

Francesca's reported $95.38 M in sales for 2018-Q4, a -15.62% less compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter income marked $-16.22 M with a profit margin of -17.01%. Profit margin plummed a -17.41% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was 0.40%. When comparing turnover to same quarter last year, Francesca's sales marked a shocking decrease and slipped a -9.85%.
FRAN quarterly Sales and Income evolution
QuarterSales1QoQ2Income1/(margin)QoQ2
2017-Q1$146 M-$14.64 M10.0%-
2017-Q2$108 M-26.42%$4.33 M4.0%-70.42%
2017-Q3$120 M11.16%$7.26 M6.1%67.67%
2017-Q4$106 M-11.63%$0.24 M0.2%-96.71%
2018-Q1$138 M30.91%$3.73 M2.7%1,459.00%
2018-Q2$100 M-27.50%$-3.89 M-3.9%-204.27%
2018-Q3$113 M12.57%$0.45 M0.4%-111.69%
2018-Q4$95 M-15.62%$-16.22 M-17.0%-3,673.35%

Francesca's ownership

When you are planning to invest in a company, it's always worth to review its ownership structure.

Francesca's shares owned by insiders (that is, founders, CEO, CTO, main executives or other management staff) currently counts a 1.29% of all shares.

Bearish positions for FRAN stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.

The following table compares ownership indicators for other stocks related to Francesca's:

FRANCHSEXPRTLRDURBN
Market cap$34.1 M$416.1 M$182.9 M$211.2 M$2.4 B
Total shares3.1 M117.9 M67.3 M50.5 M98.0 M
Float shares2.3 M107.7 M60.5 M49.8 M70.8 M
  - Institutional holdings (%)98.9%102.6%128.0%111.6%81.2%
  - Insider holdings (%)1.3%2.5%2.7%1.7%37.7%
Shares in short selling0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

FRAN summary

Friday, September 20th, 2019
Open$14.76
Close$11.16
Day range$10.66 - $14.98
Previous close$14.84
Session gain-24.80%
Average true range$2.68
50d mov avg$5.65
100d mov avg$5.82
200d mov avg$8.03
Daily patternlt06a
Weekly pattern

Francesca's performance

To better understand Francesca's performance you must becnhmark its gains with other related stocks in same sector or industry. We chose Chico's FAS, Express, Tailored Brands, Urban Outfitters and Zumiez as the bechmarking frame for Francesca's stock.
Stock3m6m12m
FRANFrancesca's121.43%36.76%-75.91%
CHSChico's FAS6.65%-12.62%-54.22%
EXPRExpress-2.16%-30.79%-75.07%
TLRDTailored Brands-21.87%-42.90%-81.69%
URBNUrban Outfitters2.89%-13.29%-40.55%
ZUMZZumiez17.21%36.16%9.07%

Francesca's competitors

One check before investing in any stock is to review a list of its competitors, in this case for Francesca's. We chose 5 companies as Francesca's competitors as they are in the same industry or have similar market objectives.