CTRP stock: buy or sell?

CTRP stock price: $34.17 -2.18% At close on November 8th, 2019

Updated on:
November 8th, 2019

2

Shares of Ctrip.com International dropped a fatal -2.18% and closed at $34.17. With November it's been 3 sliding days in a row, loosing $-1.58 (-4.52%).

Ctrip.com International, Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides travel service for accommodation reservation, transportation ticketing, packaged tours, and corporate travel management in the People's Republic of China.

Should I buy CTRP stock?

Trading stocks requires experience and discipline, and your buying and selling decisions must come following a methodology. Trading strategies are meant for helping you in the decision process of what stocks to choose and when is the best moment to buy them. There are thousands of trading strategies for you to choose, but at Stocks2.com we prefer those that are simple but successful.

None of our preferred buy setups matches with Ctrip.com International stock situation right now, hence this is not a suitable entry point.

Buy setupElegible
New all-time highNo
New 52 week highNo
Price crossing up 200d MANo
100d MA crossing up 200d MANo
This doesn't mean CTRP will slide in coming sessions, or it will not rise higher. Simply, it doesn't match our recommended trading systems.

Is Ctrip.com International stock a buy?

Everyday, hundreds of stock ratings are published by financial analysts to indicate a particular stock's attractiveness. At Stocks2.com, we gathered 15 ratings published for CTRP stock in the last month.

The general sentiment of these ratings is bullish for CTRP stock, with 12 positive ratings.
Is CTRP a good stock to buy?
DateAnalyst / BrokerPrevious ratingCurrent rating
2019-9-13Cowenn/aOutperform
2019-9-11Barclaysn/aOverweight
2019-9-11Bank of American/aBuy
2019-9-10Oppenheimern/aOutperform
2019-9-10Morgan StanleyOverweightEqual Weight
2019-9-10Benchmarkn/aBuy
2019-8-5Jefferies Financial Groupn/aBuy
2019-5-22Barclaysn/aOverweight
2019-3-7NomuraNeutralNeutral
2019-3-6Barclaysn/aBuy
2019-3-5Morgan StanleyEqual WeightOverweight
2019-3-5Mizuhon/aHold
2019-3-5JPMorgan Chase & Co.NeutralOverweight
2019-3-5Deutsche BankHoldBuy
2019-3-5CLSAUnderperformBuy

CTRP stock analysis

Daily outlook

Ctrip.com International shares dropped -2.18% to $34.17 on November.

Ctrip.com International closed on November at $34.17 and dropped a fatal -2.18%. Since September when CTRP stock price broke down the SMA200d line, it slid $-1.84 per share (-5.11%). From a daily perspective, CTRP is in a short term uptrend after plotting its last bottom ($29.36, on October) higher than the previous bottom, and its last top ($35.95, on November) also over the previous top. Now trading in between its last bottom and last top CTRP might consolidate in a plain range, waiting to break out over $35.95 or down under $29.36.

CTRP stock chart (daily)

Weekly outlook

After boosting a dazzling 8.79% in a week late October 2019, Ctrip.com International closed this week at $34.17 and raised a tiny 1.12%. Late September 2019 CTRP plummed a frightening -13.99% in just one week. With this, it's been 3 green weeks in a row, gaining $4.79 or 15.66%.

CTRP stock chart (weekly)

CTRP stock price history

CTRP stock went public on December 9th, 2003 with a price of $1.481. Since then, CTRP stock grew a 2,208.80%, with an average of 138.10% per year. If you had invested $1,000 in CTRP stock in 2003, it would worth $22,088.00 today.

1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.

CTRP stock historical price chart

CTRP stock reached 52-week highs on April at $46.50, and all-time highs 2017-07-27 with a price of 60.65.

CTRP stock price target is $43.40

Nobody can reliably foresee how stock prices may evolve in the future. However, many stock price predictions are published every day by banks, financial institutions and independent analysts. You should not follow the analysts' CTRP stock price predictions in the hope that they will be met as they may be wrong and not met. We have 13 price targets for CTRP stock posted in the last month:
CTRP stock price predictions
DateAnalyst / BrokerActionPrevious targetCurrent targetDiff
2019-9-13CowenReiterates$36.00$40.0011.1%
2019-9-11BarclaysLowers Target$45.00$41.00-8.9%
2019-9-11Bank of AmericaReiterates$49.00$43.00-12.2%
2019-9-10OppenheimerLowers Target$46.00$44.00-4.3%
2019-9-10Morgan StanleyDowngrades$43.00$35.00-18.6%
2019-9-10BenchmarkLowers Target$48.00$46.00-4.2%
2019-5-22BarclaysLowers Target$48.00$45.00-6.3%
2019-3-7NomuraRaises Target$36.00$44.0022.2%
2019-3-6BarclaysReiteratesn/a$48.00-
2019-3-5Morgan StanleyUpgrades$32.00$43.0034.4%
2019-3-5JPMorgan Chase & Co.Upgrades$33.00$45.0036.4%
2019-3-5Deutsche BankUpgradesn/a$48.00-
2019-3-5CLSAUpgrades$31.00$42.0035.5%
(in average)$40.60$43.407.0%
Moving in a range from $48.00 and $35.00, the price prediction for CTRP stock is $43.40. In average, analysts' outlook on CTRP price forecast is positive, increasing the forecast by a 7.00% from previous estimations.

Financials and fundamental analysis

Earnings date and Earnings per Share

After presenting its last earnings report on March, Ctrip.com International . As soon as we get its actual EPS from the earnings report, we will extend this report.
CTRP earnings date and EPS evolution
QuarterReporting dateEstimated EPSActual EPSSurprise
2017-Q1-n/a1.2n/a
2017-Q2-n/a4.71n/a
2017-Q32017-11-010.250.4372.0%
2017-Q42018-03-140.020.14600.0%
2018-Q12018-05-220.010.454,400.0%
2018-Q22018-09-050.050.18260.0%
2018-Q32018-11-070.260.3119.2%
2018-Q42019-03-04-0.180.01n/a
2019-Q1-n/an/an/a
2019-Q2-n/an/an/a

Annual financial results

In 2018, Ctrip.com International annual sales rocketed an astounding 15.56% to $30,965.00 million dollars from $26,796.00 marked in 2017. Nevertheless, its profit margin (compared to revenues) declined to 3.59%, that is $1,112.00 million.

CTRP annual Sales and Income evolution
YearSalesYoYIncome/(margin)YoY
2012$660 M-$113 M17.2%-
2013$877 M32.91%$163 M18.5%43.39%
2014$7,347 M737.62%$243 M3.3%49.32%
2015$10,898 M48.33%$2,508 M23.0%933.06%
2016$19,228 M76.45%$-1,430.70 M-7.4%-157.05%
2017$26,796 M39.36%$2,155 M8.0%-250.63%
2018$30,965 M15.56%$1,112 M3.6%-48.40%

Quarterly financial results

Ctrip.com International posted $7,560.00 M in revenues for 2018-Q4, a -19.19% decline compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter income marked $-1,190.00 million with a profit margin of -15.74%. Profit margin slightly fell a -3.57% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was -12.18%. When comparing sales to same quarter last year, Ctrip.com International sales marked an extraordinary growth and skyrocketed a 22.47%.
CTRP quarterly Sales and Income evolution
QuarterSales1QoQ2Income1/(margin)QoQ2
2017-Q1$883 M-$12 M1.4%-
2017-Q2$935 M5.85%$48 M5.1%297.99%
2017-Q3$1,187 M26.97%$185 M15.6%287.76%
2017-Q4$6,173 M419.93%$350 M5.7%89.47%
2018-Q1$6,731 M9.04%$1,060 M15.7%202.86%
2018-Q2$7,319 M8.74%$2,381 M32.5%124.62%
2018-Q3$9,355 M27.82%$-1,139 M-12.2%-147.84%
2018-Q4$7,560 M-19.19%$-1,190 M-15.7%4.48%

Ctrip.com International ownership

When you are planning to buy shares of a stock, it's worth to review its ownership structure.

Management staff in all public traded companies that hold equity is required to report every transaction to the SEC. For Ctrip.com International, of all outstanding shares are owned by its staff.

Bearish positions for CTRP stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.

For a better understanding, the following table shows ownership data compared to other related companies:

CTRP
Market cap$20.1 B
Total shares588.4 M
Float shares431.5 M
  - Institutional holdings (%)0.0%
  - Insider holdings (%)0.0%
Shares in short selling0.0%

CTRP summary

Friday, November 8th, 2019
Open$35.21
Close$34.17
Day range$33.71 - $35.24
Previous close$34.93
Session gain-2.18%
Average true range$1.01
50d mov avg$32.15
100d mov avg$34.15
200d mov avg$36.37
Daily patternlt06a
Weekly pattern lb06a

Ctrip.com International performance

To measure stock performance is always good to benchmark with competitors or related stocks. In the following table, we compare Ctrip.com International performance to :
Stock3m6m12m
CTRPCtrip.com Interna...0.71%-14.58%30.77%

Ctrip.com International competitors

Unfortunately, we could not find any public company that could be defined as Ctrip.com International competitor. This doesn't mean Ctrip.com International does not have any competitor in the market, it's just we could not detected it.