CINF stock: buy or sell?

CINF stock price: $106.02 0.04% At close on January 24th, 2020

Updated on:
January 24th, 2020

0

Cincinnati Financial ended on January/24 at $106.02 and stayed steady a tight 0.04%.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation provides property casualty insurance products in the United States. The company operates in five segments: Commercial Lines Insurance, Personal Lines Insurance, Excess and Surplus Lines Insurance, Life Insurance, and Investments.

Should I buy CINF stock?

You can't be a successful trader if you don't follow a methodolgy or system that assist you in choosing companies and the correct market timing. Following a trading strategy helps to make decisions easier, quicker and with less hesitations. At Stocks2.com, we like to use very simple but trusted and powerful trend following trading strategies. Simple things usually work the best.

Currently, Cincinnati Financial stock doesn't match any of these trading strategies, so our recommendation is not to buy.

Buy setupElegible
New all-time highNo
New 52 week highNo
Price crossing up 200d MANo
100d MA crossing up 200d MANo
This doesn't mean CINF will fall in coming sessions, or it will not rise higher. Simply, it doesn't match our recommended trading systems.

Is Cincinnati Financial stock a buy?

Banks and financial institutions publish stock ratings everyday. At Stocks2.com, we collected 4 ratings published for CINF stock in the last month.

Is CINF a good stock to buy?
DateAnalyst / BrokerPrevious ratingCurrent rating
2019-9-12Buckingham Researchn/aNeutral
2019-8-1Royal Bank of Canadan/aSector Perform
2019-5-17Credit Suisse GroupNeutralOutperform
2019-2-27Credit Suisse GroupUnderperformNeutral

CINF stock analysis

Daily outlook

Cincinnati Financial stayed stable a tight 0.04% and closed at $106.02.

Cincinnati Financial shares stayed stable 0.04% to $106.02 on January/24. Since price and SMA200d lines crossed up on January 9th, CINF climbed $2.92 (2.83%). From a daily outlook perspective, CINF is drawing an uptrend of rising tops and rising bottoms. Since its last top on Tuesday at $107.67, price slid and bounced up back from $105.14. Breaking down under $105.14 would cancel the current uptrend and it might slide further to test lower supports. Note that $107.67 might act as a resistance line. If Cincinnati Financial breakouts over $107.67 with average or higher volume, this would be a clear signal that the uptrend resumes. On October, CINF hit new all time highs, pushing higher previous ATH of $116.98 recorded on October. New ATHs are usual entry points for many trading setups as there aren't higher resistences.

CINF stock chart (daily)

Weekly outlook

Cincinnati Financial shares declined -1.20% this week, ending at $106.02.

This week, Cincinnati Financial stock lost the significant level of the 40-weeks moving average. Trading stocks that are under the 40-weeks (that is, 200-days) moving average mark is not recommended by many experts, as it indicates that the stock has not enough institutional support. Far behind is the all-time high Cincinnati Financial marked early October but price is just -9.82% below that top.

CINF stock chart (weekly)

CINF stock price history

CINF IPO was on March 17th, 1980 at $0.00 per share1. Since then, CINF stock surged a inf%, with an average of inf% per year. If you had invested right after CINF's IPO a $1,000 in CINF stock in 1980, it would worth $inf today.

1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.

CINF stock historical price chart

CINF stock reached all-time highs on October with a price of $117.56.

CINF stock price target is $105.00

Predicting the price evolution of a stock or any financial instrument in a reliable and repeatable way is probably impossible. However, banks and other financial institutions analysts, with the help of lots of data and algorithms do their best to predict the stock prices movement. You should not follow the analysts' CINF stock price predictions in the hope that they will be met as they may be wrong and not met. For the last 30 days we found 3 price targets for CINF stock:
CINF stock price predictions
DateAnalyst / BrokerActionPrevious targetCurrent targetDiff
2019-9-12Buckingham ResearchRaises Target$92.00$100.008.7%
2019-8-1Royal Bank of CanadaRaises Targetn/a$105.00-
2019-5-17Credit Suisse GroupUpgrades$90.00$110.0022.2%
(in average)$91.00$105.0015.0%
Moving in a range from $110.00 and $100.00, the price prediction for Cincinnati Financial stock is $105.00. In average, analysts' outlook on CINF price forecast is positive, upgrading the forecast by a 15.00% from previous estimations.

Financials and fundamental analysis

Earnings date and Earnings per Share

Cincinnati Financial presented wonderful results for 2018-Q4 on February. Cincinnati Financial boosted Earnings per Share (EPS) by 22.50%, beating experts estimates of $0.80. Cincinnati Financial posted $0.98.
CINF earnings date and EPS evolution
QuarterReporting dateEstimated EPSActual EPSSurprise
2017-Q2-n/a0.6n/a
2017-Q32017-10-260.520.5811.5%
2017-Q42018-02-070.860.938.1%
2018-Q12018-04-250.820.72-12.2%
2018-Q22018-07-260.540.8150.0%
2018-Q32018-10-250.750.8412.0%
2018-Q42019-02-060.80.9822.5%
2019-Q1-n/an/an/a
2019-Q2-n/an/an/a
2019-Q3-n/an/an/a

Annual financial results

Compared to 2017, last anual revenues report draw a fatal correction of -5.67% to $5,407.00 M dollars. Nonetheless, its earnings margin (compared to sales) collapsed to 5.31%, that is $287.00 million.

CINF annual Sales and Income evolution
YearSalesYoYIncome/(margin)YoY
2013$4,530 M-$517 M11.4%-
2014$4,945 M9.16%$525 M10.6%1.55%
2015$5,142 M3.98%$634 M12.3%20.76%
2016$5,449 M5.97%$591 M10.8%-6.78%
2017$5,732 M5.19%$1,045 M18.2%76.82%
2018$5,407 M-5.67%$287 M5.3%-72.54%

Quarterly financial results

Cincinnati Financial reported $710.00 million in sales for 2018-Q4, a -62.92% decline compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter income marked $-452.00 million with a profit margin of -63.66%. Profit margin plummed a -92.54% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was 28.88%. When comparing sales to same quarter last year, Cincinnati Financial sales marked a dreadful drop down and plunged a -49.68%.
CINF quarterly Sales and Income evolution
QuarterSales1QoQ2Income1/(margin)QoQ2
2017-Q2$1,400 M-$100 M7.1%-
2017-Q3$1,410 M0.71%$102 M7.2%2.00%
2017-Q4$1,411 M0.07%$642 M45.5%529.41%
2018-Q1$1,224 M-13.25%$-31 M-2.5%-104.83%
2018-Q2$1,558 M27.29%$217 M13.9%-800.00%
2018-Q3$1,915 M22.91%$553 M28.9%154.84%
2018-Q4$710 M-62.92%$-452 M-63.7%-181.74%
2019-Q1$2,159 M204.08%$695 M32.2%-253.76%

Cincinnati Financial ownership

When you are planning to buy shares of a stock, it's always worth to have a look its ownership structure.

Cincinnati Financial shares owned by insiders (that is, founders, CEO, CTO, main executives or other management staff) currently counts a 6.57% of all shares.

In case of Cincinnati Financial stock, 65.05% of its shares are held by institutions (mutual funds, pension funds, big banks and other large financial institutions). Bearish positions for CINF stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.

For a better understanding, the next table shows ownership data compared to other related stocks:

CINF
Market cap$17.3 B
Total shares163.4 M
Float shares159.5 M
  - Institutional holdings (%)65.0%
  - Insider holdings (%)6.6%
Shares in short selling0.0%

CINF summary

Friday, January 24th, 2020
Open$105.90
Close$106.02
Day range$105.55 - $106.51
Previous close$105.98
Session gain0.04%
Average true range$1.40
50d mov avg$105.38
100d mov avg$109.16
200d mov avg$104.95
Daily patternlb03a
Weekly pattern

Cincinnati Financial performance

Stocks performance is always measured in comparision to the market or competitors and related stocks in the same industry. We compared Cincinnati Financial against in the following table:
Stock3m6m12m
CINFCincinnati Financ...-4.54%-0.67%36.62%

Cincinnati Financial competitors

Unfortunately, we could not find any public company that could be defined as Cincinnati Financial competitor. This doesn't mean Cincinnati Financial does not have any competitor in the market, it's just we could not detected it.