Alibaba stock: buy or sell?

BABA stock price: $205.03 -1.78% At close on February 27th, 2020

Updated on:
February 27th, 2020

4

The Chinese giant shares fell -1.78% to $205.03 today.

Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates as an online and mobile commerce company in the People's Republic of China and internationally.

Should I buy Alibaba stock?

You can't be a successful trader if you don't follow a methodolgy or system that assist you in choosing companies and the correct market timing. That's why is so important to choose your own trading strategy that fits your character as inversor. There are thousands of trading strategies for you to choose, but at Stocks2.com we prefer those that are simple but successful.

Currently, Alibaba stock doesn't match any of these trading strategies, so our recommendation is not to buy.

Buy setupElegible
New all-time highNo
New 52 week highNo
Price crossing up 200d MANo
100d MA crossing up 200d MANo
This is not a selling recommendation at all, just it's not the best moment to buy if you follow any of these trading strategies.

Is Alibaba stock a buy?

Everyday, hundreds of stock ratings are posted by financial analysts to indicate a particular stock's attractiveness. Unfortunately, we couldn't detect any rating for BABA stock for the last month.

Alibaba stock analysis

Daily outlook

The Chinese giant shares fell -1.78% to $205.03 today.

The Chinese giant shares fell -1.78% to $205.03 today. Since SMA100d and SMA200d crossed up on November, BABA price climbed $4.21 per share (2.10%). On October BABA price bounced up over the SMA of 200 days demonstrating to be a significant support for this stock. On January, BABA hit new all time highs, pushing higher previous ATH of $225.96 recorded on January. New ATHs are usual entry points for many trading setups as there aren't higher resistences.

BABA stock chart (daily)

Weekly outlook

Shares of the Chinese giant ended this week at $205.03 and slipped a terrifying -3.56%. Late January BABA plummed a frightening -6.40% in just one week.

Having descending tops is not good news for investors in BABA. Although it's only a warning signal, eyes should be on alert during next weeks to identify possible new risks. Falling under its previous bottom at would confirm the downtrend path. Not so far away is the last price record Alibaba marked by mid January. Since late November 2019 when SMA20w and SMA40w crossed up, BABA price gained $18.25 per share (9.77%). Late October 2019 BABA price bounced up over the SMA of 40 weeks that acted as support stopping new slides.

BABA stock chart (weekly)

Alibaba stock price history

Alibaba stock went public on September 19th, 2014 with a price of $92.701. Since then, BABA stock surged a 121.20%, with an average of 24.20% per year. If you had invested right after BABA's IPO a $1,000 in Alibaba stock in 2014, it would worth $1,212.00 today.

1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.

Alibaba stock historical price chart

BABA stock reached all-time highs on January with a price of $231.14.

Alibaba stock price target

Predicting the price evolution of a stock or any financial instrument in a reliable and repeatable way is probably impossible. However, financial institutions invest time and resources to provide the most accurated estimations to help investors to make their decisions. The accuracy of these stock price predictions is not very high, and you should not blindly believe and make decisions only based on what this ratings or price target predictions say. For the last month we have not found any price forecast for the e-commerce leader stock by any trusted analyst.

Financials and fundamental analysis

Earnings date and Earnings per Share

Since last May, when Alibaba published its last earnings report, it . As soon as we get its actual EPS from the earnings report, we will extend this review.
BABA earnings date and EPS evolution
QuarterReporting dateEstimated EPSActual EPSSurprise
2017-Q1-n/a4.71n/a
2017-Q2-n/a5.65n/a
2017-Q32017-11-021.081.3525.0%
2017-Q42018-02-011.671.680.6%
2018-Q12018-05-040.650.54-16.9%
2018-Q22018-08-230.740.66-10.8%
2018-Q32018-11-020.821.0123.2%
2018-Q42019-01-301.361.392.2%
2019-Q12019-05-020.97n/an/a
2019-Q2-n/an/an/a

Annual financial results

In 2018, Alibaba annual sales rocketed an extraordinary 58.12% to $250,266.00 M dollars from $158,273.00 marked in 2017. When comparing 2018 vs 2017, however, profit margin (that is, the net income divided by revenues) depreciated a -1.98% to 25.61%.

Alibaba fiscal year ends in March, and to compare its evolution since then, we estimate annual sales and income figures by adding results from the last 4 quarters. This is called TTM (or Twelve Trailing Months). So, Alibaba TTM sales up to were $283,346.00 and income $61,973.00 M USD. If we compare this TTM figures with the last reported annuality, we can esteem the e-commerce giant business evolution since March 2018: Annual revenues up to , compared to lastest yearly report, climbed a dazzling 13.22%. Regarding profit margin, Alibaba decreased -3.74% to 25.61%

BABA annual Sales and Income evolution
YearSalesYoYIncome/(margin)YoY
2013$5,500 M-$1,360 M24.7%-
2014$8,580 M56.00%$3,810 M44.4%180.15%
2015$76,204 M788.16%$24,261 M31.8%536.77%
2016$101,143 M32.73%$71,460 M70.7%194.55%
2017$158,273 M56.48%$43,675 M27.6%-38.88%
2018$250,266 M58.12%$64,093 M25.6%46.75%
TTM $283,346 M13.22%$61,973 M21.9%-3.31%

Quarterly financial results

Alibaba reported M in revenues for 2019-Q1, a -100.00% decline compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter earnings marked M with a profit margin of . Profit margin remained constant a 0.00% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was 28.24%. When comparing sales to same quarter last year, Alibaba sales marked a scary loss and plummed a -100.00%.
BABA quarterly Sales and Income evolution
QuarterSales1QoQ2Income1/(margin)QoQ2
2017-Q1$5,600 M-$1,550 M27.7%-
2017-Q2$7,310 M30.54%$2,140 M29.3%38.06%
2017-Q3$8,285 M13.33%$2,655 M32.1%24.08%
2017-Q4$12,766 M54.09%$3,701 M29.0%39.38%
2018-Q1$61,932 M385.15%$7,669 M12.4%107.20%
2018-Q2$80,920 M30.66%$8,720 M10.8%13.70%
2018-Q3$85,148 M5.22%$20,133 M23.6%130.88%
2018-Q4$117,278 M37.73%$33,120 M28.2%64.51%

Alibaba ownership

When you are planning to invest in shares of a stock, it's worth to review its ownership structure.

Alibaba shares owned by insiders (that is, founders, CEO, CTO, main executives or other management staff) currently counts a 33.50% of all shares.

In case of Alibaba stock, 48.12% of its shares are held by institutions (mutual funds, pension funds, big banks and other large financial institutions). Bearish positions for BABA stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.

For a better understanding, the next table shows ownership data compared to other related companies:

BABA
Market cap$549.5 B
Total shares2,680.0 M
Float shares1,760.0 M
  - Institutional holdings (%)48.1%
  - Insider holdings (%)33.5%
Shares in short selling0.0%

Alibaba summary

Thursday, February 27th, 2020
Open$205.01
Close$205.03
Day range$201.86 - $209.97
Previous close$208.74
Session gain-1.78%
Average true range$6.10
50d mov avg$216.23
100d mov avg$199.87
200d mov avg$184.08
Daily pattern
Weekly pattern lt01a

Alibaba performance

To measure stock performance is always good to benchmark with competitors or related stocks. In the following table, we compare Alibaba to :
Stock3m6m12m
BABAAlibaba2.52%17.14%11.50%

Alibaba competitors

Unfortunately, we could not find any public company that could be defined as Alibaba competitor. This doesn't mean Alibaba does not have any competitor in the market, it's just we could not detected it.

    Latest Alibaba stock news