Aircastle stock: buy or sell?

AYR stock price: $22.75 -1.04% At close on September 20th, 2019

Updated on:
September 20th, 2019

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Aircastle slightly fell -1.04% to $22.75 after topping to all time highs on Tuesday. With Friday it's been 3 sliding days in a row, loosing $-0.75 (-3.23%).

Aircastle Limited, through its subsidiaries, leases, finances, sells, and manages commercial flight equipment to airlines worldwide.

Should I buy Aircastle stock?

Trading stocks requires experience and discipline, and your buying and selling decisions must come following a methodology. That's why is so important to define your own trading strategy that matches with your character as inversor. At Stocks2.com, we like to use very simple but trusted and powerful trend following trading strategies. Simple things usually work the best.

These 2 buy setups are elegible for Aircastle stock now:

Buy setupElegible
New all-time highYes
New 52 week highYes
Price crossing up 200d MANo
100d MA crossing up 200d MANo

Is Aircastle stock a buy?

Everyday, hundreds of stock ratings are posted by financial analysts to indicate a particular stock's attractiveness. At Stocks2.com, we gathered 2 ratings published for AYR stock in the last month.

Is AYR a good stock to buy?
DateAnalyst / BrokerPrevious ratingCurrent rating
2019-4-8Goldman Sachs Groupn/aSell
2019-2-14Bank of AmericaNeutralUnderperform

Aircastle stock analysis

Daily outlook

After reaching all time highs on Tuesday, Aircastle slightly fell -1.04% to $22.75.

Aircastle slightly fell -1.04% to $22.75 after reaching all time highs on Tuesday. From a daily perspective, AYR is in a short term uptrend after plotting its last bottom ($20.72, on August 23rd) higher than the previous bottom, and its last top ($23.55, on Tuesday) also over the previous top. Now trading in between its last bottom and last top AYR might consolidate in a plain range, waiting to break out over $23.55 or down under $20.72. On May, SMA100d and SMA200d crossed up triggering a rise of 19.23%. On August/15 AYR price bounced up over the SMA of 100 days demonstrating to be a significant support for this stock. On Tuesday, AYR hit new all time highs, pushing higher previous ATH of $23.36 recorded on September/13. New ATHs are usual entry points for many trading setups as there aren't higher resistences.

AYR stock chart (daily)

Weekly outlook

After climbing for 4 weeks, this week Aircastle slightly fell an unpleasant -1.26%, closing at $22.75. Late July AYR plummed a dreadful -5.62% in just one week.

It touched new all-time highs again this week, setting highs to $23.55. Since late April when SMA20w and SMA40w crossed up, AYR price gained $3.43 per share (17.75%). Since price and SMA40w lines crossed up by mid March, AYR climbed $4.00 (21.33%).

AYR stock chart (weekly)

Aircastle stock price history

Aircastle stock went public on August 8th, 2006 with a price of $13.621. Since then, AYR stock surged a 67.00%, with an average of 5.20% per year. If you had invested right after AYR's IPO a $1,000 in Aircastle stock in 2006, it would worth $670.00 today.

1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.

Aircastle stock historical price chart

AYR stock reached all-time highs on Tuesday with a price of $23.55.

Aircastle stock price target is $19.00

Nobody can reliably foresee how stock prices may evolve in the future. However, financial institutions invest time and resources to provide the most accurated estimations to help investors to make their decisions. We do not recommend to follow these stock price predictions without a critical thinking from your side, as their accuracy is usually low. We detected 2 price targets for Aircastle stock published in the last month:
AYR stock price predictions
DateAnalyst / BrokerActionPrevious targetCurrent targetDiff
2019-4-8Goldman Sachs GroupInitiatesn/a$18.00-
2019-2-14Bank of AmericaDowngrades$23.00$20.00-13%
(in average)$23.00$19.00-17.0%
Moving in a range from $20.00 and $18.00, the price prediction for AYR stock is $19.00. In average, analysts' outlook on AYR price forecast is negative, downgrading the forecast by a -17.00% from previous estimations.

Financials and fundamental analysis

Earnings date and Earnings per Share

On February, Aircastle failed to meet the expectations of the experts and posted a bad EPS of $1.35 per share when experts were expecting $1.42.
AYR earnings date and EPS evolution
QuarterReporting dateEstimated EPSActual EPSSurprise
2017-Q1-n/a0.54n/a
2017-Q2-n/a1.21n/a
2017-Q32017-11-020.670.8222.4%
2017-Q42018-02-130.580.7224.1%
2018-Q12018-05-030.430.7369.8%
2018-Q22018-08-070.510.6425.5%
2018-Q32018-11-010.430.467.0%
2018-Q42019-02-121.421.35-4.9%
2019-Q1-n/an/an/a
2019-Q2-n/an/an/a

Annual financial results

Compared to 2017, last anual revenues report draw a fine gain of 4.53% to $890.35 million USD. Instead, its profit margin (compared to sales) climbed to 27.85%, that is $247.92 million.

AYR annual Sales and Income evolution
YearSalesYoYIncome/(margin)YoY
2013$709 M-$30 M4.2%-
2014$819 M15.52%$101 M12.3%241.33%
2015$819 M0.07%$122 M14.9%20.73%
2016$773 M-5.65%$151 M19.6%24.42%
2017$852 M10.20%$148 M17.4%-2.36%
2018$890 M4.53%$248 M27.8%67.66%

Quarterly financial results

Aircastle reported $292.57 M in sales for 2018-Q4, a 53.31% improvement compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter income marked $103.84 M with a profit margin of 35.49%. Profit margin boosted a 16.45% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was 19.04%. When comparing sales to same quarter last year, Aircastle sales marked an outstanding growth and skyrocketed a 106.80%.
AYR quarterly Sales and Income evolution
QuarterSales1QoQ2Income1/(margin)QoQ2
2017-Q1$204 M-$42 M20.6%-
2017-Q2$224 M9.43%$-7 M-3.2%-116.88%
2017-Q3$191 M-14.37%$57 M30.0%-906.62%
2017-Q4$141 M-26.09%$55 M39.0%-4.02%
2018-Q1$197 M39.18%$58 M29.2%4.40%
2018-Q2$204 M3.74%$50 M24.6%-12.76%
2018-Q3$191 M-6.58%$36 M19.0%-27.63%
2018-Q4$293 M53.31%$104 M35.5%185.80%

Aircastle ownership

When you are planning to buy shares of a stock, it's worth to overview its ownership structure.

Management staff in all public traded companies that hold equity is required to report every transaction to the SEC. For Aircastle, 30.85% of all outstanding shares are owned by its staff.

In case of Aircastle stock, 60.74% of its shares are held by institutions (mutual funds, pension funds, big banks and other large financial institutions). Bearish positions for AYR stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.

For a better understanding, the next table shows ownership data compared to other related companies:

AYRACYAERALCAI
Market cap$1.7 B$10.0 M$7.5 B$4.8 B$397.9 M
Total shares75.0 M1.6 M136.6 M111.7 M17.4 M
Float shares51.7 M1.2 M130.4 M104.1 M12.3 M
  - Institutional holdings (%)60.7%18.6%99.0%0.1%89.0%
  - Insider holdings (%)30.9%21.2%12.2%28.5%13.8%
Shares in short selling0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Aircastle summary

Friday, September 20th, 2019
Open$22.98
Close$22.75
Day range$22.72 - $23.18
Previous close$22.99
Session gain-1.04%
Average true range$0.54
50d mov avg$21.19
100d mov avg$20.57
200d mov avg$19.68
Daily patternlt06a
Weekly pattern

Aircastle performance

Stocks performance is always measured in comparision to the market or competitors and related stocks in the same industry. In the following table, we compare Aircastle performance to AeroCentury, Aercap, Air Lease, CAI International, Fly Leasing, Textainer and Willis Lease Finance:
Stock3m6m12m
AYRAircastle11.85%18.37%14.61%
ACYAeroCentury-13.83%-46.90%-62.57%
AERAercap9.58%22.76%-4.24%
ALAir Lease7.85%33.35%-4.86%
CAICAI International-6.16%2.93%-13.75%
FLYFly Leasing24.93%57.60%47.59%
TGHTextainer11.03%11.26%-21.10%
WLFCWillis Lease Fina...2.95%44.07%64.29%

Aircastle competitors

We chose a few stocks to conform a list of Aircastle competitors to review if you are interested in investing in AYR: