Avaya stock: buy or sell?
Updated on:
August 22nd, 2019
2
Avaya Holdings Corp. operates as a holding company which through its subsidiary, develops business collaboration and communications solutions worldwide.
Should I buy Avaya stock?
Even if you are a experienced or a novel trader, best trading results come from using an investing strategy that never leaves to random or subjective opinions when is the best moment to buy or sell stocks. Trading strategies are meant for helping you in the decision process of what stocks to choose and when is the best time to buy them. There are thousands of trading strategies for you to choose, but at Stocks2.com we prefer those that are simple but successful.None of our preferred buy setups matches with Avaya stock situation right now, therefore this is not a suitable entry point.
| Buy setup | Elegible |
|---|---|
| New all-time high | No |
| New 52 week high | No |
| Price crossing up 200d MA | No |
| 100d MA crossing up 200d MA | No |
Is Avaya stock a buy?
Everyday, hundreds of stock ratings are published by financial analysts to indicate a particular stock's attractiveness.
At Stocks2.com, we collected 6 ratings published for AVYA stock in the last 30 days. The general sentiment of these ratings is bullish for AVYA stock, with 3 positive ratings.| Date | Analyst / Broker | Previous rating | Current rating |
| 2019-8-14 | Northland Securities | n/a | Buy |
| 2019-8-14 | Morgan Stanley | n/a | Equal Weight |
| 2019-7-8 | Citigroup | n/a | Hold |
| 2019-3-11 | Guggenheim | n/a | Buy |
| 2019-1-7 | Morgan Stanley | n/a | Equal Weight |
| 2019-1-25 | Barclays | Equal Weight | Overweight |
Avaya stock analysis
Daily outlook
Shares of Avaya slightly fell a disappointing -0.42% and closed at $14.08.
Shares of Avaya ended today at $14.08 and slightly fell a disappointing -0.42%. Since May when AVYA stock price broke down the SMA200d line, it slid $-4.28 per share (-23.31%).
Weekly outlook
Avaya closed this week at $14.08 and climbed an extraordinary 12.46%.
Since price and 40-weeks moving average lines crossed down early May, AVYA fell $-4.71 per share (-25.07%). Trading stocks that are under the 40-weeks (that is, 200-days) moving average line is not recommended by many experts, as it indicates that the stock has not enough institutional support.
Avaya stock price history
Avaya stock went public on December 19th, 2017 with a price of $15.881. Since then, AVYA stock declined a -11.30%, with a yearly average of -11.30%.
1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.
Avaya stock historical price chart
AVYA stock reached 52-week highs on August at $23.40, and all-time highs 2018-03-22 with a price of 23.76.
Avaya stock price target is $17.30
Nobody can reliably foresee how stock prices may evolve in the future. However, financial institutions invest time and resources to provide the most accurated estimations to help investors to make their decisions. We do not recommend to follow these stock price predictions without a critical thinking from your side, as their accuracy is usually low. For the last month we found 5 price targets for AVYA stock:| Date | Analyst / Broker | Action | Previous target | Current target | Diff |
| 2019-8-14 | Northland Securities | Reiterates | n/a | $21.00 | - |
| 2019-8-14 | Morgan Stanley | Reiterates | $18.50 | $14.00 | -24.3% |
| 2019-7-8 | Citigroup | Set Price Target | n/a | $12.00 | - |
| 2019-1-7 | Morgan Stanley | Initiates | n/a | $18.50 | - |
| 2019-1-25 | Barclays | Upgrades | $20.00 | $21.00 | 5% |
| (in average) | $19.30 | $17.30 | -10.0% |
Financials and fundamental analysis
Earnings date and Earnings per Share
Avaya disappointed experts on February when it posted an Earnings per Share (EPS) of $0.79 when the market consensus was $0.87.| Quarter | Reporting date | Estimated EPS | Actual EPS | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-Q1 | - | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 2017-Q2 | - | n/a | -0.18 | n/a |
| 2017-Q3 | 2017-12-22 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 2017-Q4 | 2018-03-01 | -0.04 | n/a | n/a |
| 2018-Q1 | 2018-05-10 | 0.85 | 0.68 | -20.0% |
| 2018-Q2 | 2018-08-09 | 0.77 | 0.41 | -46.8% |
| 2018-Q3 | 2018-12-04 | 0.86 | 0.94 | 9.3% |
| 2018-Q4 | 2019-02-11 | 0.87 | 0.79 | -9.2% |
| 2019-Q1 | - | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 2019-Q2 | - | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Annual financial results
Compared to 2017, last anual sales report draw a frightening correction of -31.33% to $2,247.00 M dollars. When comparing 2018 vs 2017, nonetheless, profit margin (that is, the net income divided by revenues) skyrocketed a 18.33% to 12.77%. Avaya presents anual results in September, and to evaluate its evolution since then, we estimate annual sales and income figures by adding results from the last 4 quarters. This is called TTM (or Twelve Trailing Months). So, Avaya TTM sales up to December 2018 were $2,837.00 and earnings $59.00 M dollars. When comparing this TTM figures with the last reported annuality, we can esteem Avaya business evolution since September 2018: Annual revenues up to December, compared to lastest yearly report, boosted an outstanding 26.26%. In contrast, profit margin (net income/revenues) plummed at 12.77%.| Year | Sales | YoY | Income/(margin) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | $4,580 M | - | $-319.00 M-7.0% | - |
| 2014 | $4,371 M | -4.56% | $-253.00 M-5.8% | -20.69% |
| 2015 | $4,081 M | -6.63% | $-168.00 M-4.1% | -33.60% |
| 2016 | $3,702 M | -9.29% | $-730.00 M-19.7% | 334.52% |
| 2017 | $3,272 M | -11.62% | $-182.00 M-5.6% | -75.07% |
| 2018 | $2,247 M | -31.33% | $287 M12.8% | -257.69% |
| TTM | $2,837 M | 26.26% | $59 M2.1% | -79.44% |
Quarterly financial results
Avaya reported $738.00 M in revenues for 2018-Q4, a 0.41% improvement compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter income marked $9.00 M with a profit margin of 1.22%. Profit margin plummed a -35.24% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was 36.46%. When comparing revenues to same quarter last year, Avaya sales marked an amazing gain and rocketed a 22.19%. Looking back to recent quarterly results, Avaya posted 4 negative quarters in a row.| Quarter | Sales1 | QoQ2 | Income1/(margin) | QoQ2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-Q1 | $804 M | - | $-8 M-1.0% | - |
| 2017-Q2 | $803 M | -0.12% | $-98 M-12.2% | 1,125.00% |
| 2017-Q3 | $790 M | -1.62% | $27 M3.4% | -127.55% |
| 2017-Q4 | $604 M | -23.54% | $2,977 M492.9% | 10,925.93% |
| 2018-Q1 | $672 M | 11.26% | $-130 M-19.3% | -104.37% |
| 2018-Q2 | $692 M | 2.98% | $-88 M-12.7% | -32.31% |
| 2018-Q3 | $735 M | 6.21% | $268 M36.5% | -404.55% |
| 2018-Q4 | $738 M | 0.41% | $9 M1.2% | -96.64% |
Avaya ownership
When you are planning to invest in a stock, it's worth to check its ownership structure.Avaya shares owned by insiders (that is, founders, CEO, CTO, main executives or other management staff) currently counts a 0.97% of all shares.
Bearish positions for AVYA stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.
The following table compares ownership indicators for other stocks related to Avaya:
| AVYA | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | $1.6 B |
| Total shares | 110.9 M |
| Float shares | 93.4 M |
| - Institutional holdings (%) | 103.5% |
| - Insider holdings (%) | 1.0% |
| Shares in short selling | 0.0% |
Avaya summary
| Thursday, August 22nd, 2019 | |
|---|---|
| Open | $14.23 |
| Close | $14.08 |
| Day range | $13.72 - $14.23 |
| Previous close | $14.14 |
| Session gain | -0.42% |
| Average true range | $0.92 |
| 50d mov avg | $11.62 |
| 100d mov avg | $13.83 |
| 200d mov avg | $14.80 |
| Daily pattern | |
| Weekly pattern | lb06c |
Avaya performance
To better understand Avaya performance you must compare its gains with other related stocks in same sector or industry. For Avaya, the benchmark is made against .| Stock | 3m | 6m | 12m |
|---|---|---|---|
| AVYAAvaya | 9.15% | -12.60% | -38.65% |