Avaya stock: buy or sell?

AVYA stock price: $11.83 -1.66% At close on December 6th, 2019

Updated on:
December 6th, 2019

1

Avaya shares depreciated -1.66% to $11.83 today. With Friday it's been 5 red days in a row.

Avaya Holdings Corp. operates as a holding company which through its subsidiary, develops business collaboration and communications solutions worldwide.

Should I buy Avaya stock?

Trading stocks requires experience and discipline, and your buying and selling decisions must come following a methodology. Having a trading plan helps to make decisions easier, quicker and with less hesitations. There are thousands of trading strategies for you to choose, but at Stocks2.com we prefer those that are simple but successful.

None of our preferred buy setups matches with Avaya stock situation right now, therefore this is not a suitable entry point.

Buy setupElegible
New all-time highNo
New 52 week highNo
Price crossing up 200d MANo
100d MA crossing up 200d MANo
This is not a selling recommendation at all, just it's not the best moment to buy if you follow any of these trading strategies.

Is Avaya stock a buy?

Financial institutions and banks post stock ratings everyday. At Stocks2.com, we gathered 4 ratings published for AVYA stock in the last month.

The general sentiment of these ratings is bullish for AVYA stock, with 2 positive ratings.
Is AVYA a good stock to buy?
DateAnalyst / BrokerPrevious ratingCurrent rating
2019-8-14Northland Securitiesn/aBuy
2019-8-14Morgan Stanleyn/aEqual Weight
2019-7-8Citigroupn/aHold
2019-3-11Guggenheimn/aBuy

Avaya stock analysis

Daily outlook

Shares of Avaya closed today at $11.83 and depreciated a rough -1.66%.

Avaya ended today at $11.83 and depreciated a rough -1.66%. Since SMA50d and SMA100d crossed up on Monday, AVYA price slid a -7.36%.

AVYA stock chart (daily)

Weekly outlook

After boosting an astounding 5.87% in a week last week, Avaya closed this week at $11.83 and collapsed a bloodcurdling -7.36%.

Avaya stock just marked a top under its last top. Athought it's not a big concern right now, investors should be aware as this could be a warning for future complications. You should be expectant to Avaya price to not slide under , as this would complicate possible price recovery in the short and mid-term. Since early May, when AVYA stock price broke down the 40-weeks moving avarage line, it slid $-6.96 per share (-37.04%). Stocks under the 40w moving average line are usually not recommended for average traders. Since last week when SMA10w and SMA20w crossed up, AVYA price slipped $-0.19 per share (-1.58%).

AVYA stock chart (weekly)

Avaya stock price history

Avaya stock went public on December 19th, 2017 with a price of $15.881. Since then, AVYA stock declined a -25.50%, with a yearly average of -25.50%.

1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.

Avaya stock historical price chart

AVYA stock reached 52-week highs on April at $22.35, and all-time highs 2018-03-22 with a price of 23.76.

Avaya stock price target is $15.70

Predicting the price evolution of a stock or any financial instrument in a reliable and repeatable way is probably impossible. However, financial institutions invest time and resources to provide the most accurated estimations to help investors to make their decisions. You should not follow the analysts' AVYA stock price predictions in the hope that they will be met as they may be wrong and not met. For the last month we found 3 price targets for AVYA stock:
AVYA stock price predictions
DateAnalyst / BrokerActionPrevious targetCurrent targetDiff
2019-8-14Northland SecuritiesReiteratesn/a$21.00-
2019-8-14Morgan StanleyReiterates$18.50$14.00-24.3%
2019-7-8CitigroupSet Price Targetn/a$12.00-
(in average)$18.50$15.70-15.0%
Moving in a range from $21.00 and $12.00, the price target for Avaya stock is $15.70. In average, analysts' outlook on AVYA price target is negative, reducing the target by a -15.00% from previous estimations.

Financials and fundamental analysis

Earnings date and Earnings per Share

Avaya let down analysts on February when it posted an Earnings per Share (EPS) of $0.79 when the market consensus was $0.87.
AVYA earnings date and EPS evolution
QuarterReporting dateEstimated EPSActual EPSSurprise
2017-Q1-n/an/an/a
2017-Q2-n/a-0.18n/a
2017-Q32017-12-22n/an/an/a
2017-Q42018-03-01-0.04n/an/a
2018-Q12018-05-100.850.68-20.0%
2018-Q22018-08-090.770.41-46.8%
2018-Q32018-12-040.860.949.3%
2018-Q42019-02-110.870.79-9.2%
2019-Q1-n/an/an/a
2019-Q2-n/an/an/a

Annual financial results

In 2018, Avaya annual revenues plunged a bloodcurdling -31.33% to $2,247.00 M dollars from $3,272.00 marked in 2017. In contrast, its profit margin (compared to sales) rocketed to 12.77%, that is $287.00 million.

Avaya presents anual results in September, and to compare its evolution since then, we estimate annual sales and income figures by adding results from the last 4 quarters. This is called TTM (or Twelve Trailing Months). So, Avaya TTM sales up to December 2018 were $2,837.00 and income $59.00 M dollars. When comparing this TTM figures with the last reported annuality, we can review Avaya business evolution since September 2018: Annual sales up to December, compared to lastest yearly report, climbed an outstanding 26.26%. By contrast, profit margin (net income/revenues) collapsed at 12.77%.

AVYA annual Sales and Income evolution
YearSalesYoYIncome/(margin)YoY
2013$4,580 M-$-319.00 M-7.0%-
2014$4,371 M-4.56%$-253.00 M-5.8%-20.69%
2015$4,081 M-6.63%$-168.00 M-4.1%-33.60%
2016$3,702 M-9.29%$-730.00 M-19.7%334.52%
2017$3,272 M-11.62%$-182.00 M-5.6%-75.07%
2018$2,247 M-31.33%$287 M12.8%-257.69%
TTM $2,837 M26.26%$59 M2.1%-79.44%

Quarterly financial results

Avaya reported $738.00 M in sales for 2018-Q4, a 0.41% up compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter income marked $9.00 million with a profit margin of 1.22%. Profit margin collapsed a -35.24% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was 36.46%. When comparing turnover to same quarter last year, Avaya sales marked an amazing increase and skyrocketed a 22.19%. Looking back to recent quarterly results, Avaya posted 4 negative quarters in a row.
AVYA quarterly Sales and Income evolution
QuarterSales1QoQ2Income1/(margin)QoQ2
2017-Q1$804 M-$-8 M-1.0%-
2017-Q2$803 M-0.12%$-98 M-12.2%1,125.00%
2017-Q3$790 M-1.62%$27 M3.4%-127.55%
2017-Q4$604 M-23.54%$2,977 M492.9%10,925.93%
2018-Q1$672 M11.26%$-130 M-19.3%-104.37%
2018-Q2$692 M2.98%$-88 M-12.7%-32.31%
2018-Q3$735 M6.21%$268 M36.5%-404.55%
2018-Q4$738 M0.41%$9 M1.2%-96.64%

Avaya ownership

When you are planning to buy shares of a stock, it's worth to review its ownership structure.

Management staff in all public traded companies that hold equity is required to report every transaction to the SEC. For Avaya, 0.97% of all outstanding shares are owned by its staff.

Bearish positions for AVYA stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.

The following table compares ownership indicators for other stocks related to Avaya:

AVYA
Market cap$1.3 B
Total shares111.0 M
Float shares95.3 M
  - Institutional holdings (%)103.5%
  - Insider holdings (%)1.0%
Shares in short selling0.0%

Avaya summary

Friday, December 6th, 2019
Open$12.09
Close$11.83
Day range$11.62 - $12.30
Previous close$12.03
Session gain-1.66%
Average true range$0.55
50d mov avg$12.18
100d mov avg$12.06
200d mov avg$13.43
Daily pattern
Weekly pattern lt01a

Avaya performance

Performance as an absolute value is never valid if it's not benchmarked against competitors or related stocks in the industry. We compared Avaya against in the following table:
Stock3m6m12m
AVYAAvaya-11.72%-4.29%-30.90%

Avaya competitors

Unfortunately, we could not find any public company that could be defined as Avaya competitor. This doesn't mean Avaya does not have any competitor in the market, it's just we could not detected it.