ARI stock: buy or sell?

ARI stock price: $19.55 0.00% At close on September 20th, 2019

Updated on:
September 20th, 2019

5

After climbing to all-time highs several times in past weeks, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance stayed constant 0.00% to $19.55. Friday was the 5th climbing session in a row, marking 1.34%.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) that primarily originates, acquires, invests in, and manages commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate-related debt investments in the United States.

Should I buy ARI stock?

Make a decision about when to buy or sell stocks is one of the hardest parts of being a trader or investor. Following a trading strategy helps to make decisions easier, quicker and with less hesitations. There are thousands of trading strategies for you to choose, but at Stocks2.com we prefer those that are simple but successful.

These 2 buy setups are elegible for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance stock now:

Buy setupElegible
New all-time highYes
New 52 week highYes
Price crossing up 200d MANo
100d MA crossing up 200d MANo

Is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance stock a buy?

Banks and financial institutions post stock ratings everyday. At Stocks2.com, we detected 2 ratings published for ARI stock in the last 30 days.

Is ARI a good stock to buy?
DateAnalyst / BrokerPrevious ratingCurrent rating
2019-2-14Deutsche BankBuyHold
2019-1-16JPMorgan Chase & Co.NeutralOverweight

ARI stock analysis

Daily outlook

After several days of continuous rises in past weeks, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance stayed constant 0.00% to $19.55.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance stayed stable 0.00% to $19.55 after yesterday all time highs. On May, SMA100d and SMA200d crossed up triggering a rise of 7.59%. Yesterday, ARI hit new all time highs, pushing higher previous ATH of $19.51 recorded on September/18. New ATHs are usual entry points for many trading setups as there aren't higher resistences. Since last Sep/3 when ARI stock price broke up the SMA50d line, it gained $1.00 (5.39%).

ARI stock chart (daily)

Weekly outlook

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance shares touched new all time highs back again this week, setting highs to $19.76. Shares closed at $19.55 and stepped up 1.35% during the week. For 3 weeks in a row, price climbed and marked a profit of 5.36%.

In a weekly time frame, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance stock is drawing an uptrend with rising tops and bottoms. Now trading in between its last bottom and last top, ARI might consolidate in a flat-base, waiting to break out over or down under . Since early May when SMA20w and SMA40w crossed up, ARI price gained $0.97 per share (5.22%). Since price and SMA40w lines crossed up late January, ARI climbed $2.66 (15.75%).

ARI stock chart (weekly)

ARI stock price history

ARI IPO was on September 25th, 2009 at $7.19 per share1. Since then, ARI stock surged a 171.90%, with a yearly average of 19.10%. If you had invested right after ARI's IPO a $1,000 in ARI stock in 2009, it would worth $1,719.00 today.

1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.

ARI stock historical price chart

ARI stock reached all-time highs yesterday with a price of $19.76.

ARI stock price target is $18.00

How much a stock will be priced tomorrow or next week is quite unpredictable However, financial institutions invest time and resources to provide the most accurated estimations to help investors to make their decisions. You should not follow the analysts' ARI stock price predictions in the hope that they will be met as they may be wrong and not met. For the last 30 days we only found 1 price prediction for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance stock:
ARI stock price predictions
DateAnalyst / BrokerActionPrevious targetCurrent targetDiff
2019-1-16JPMorgan Chase & Co.Upgrades$18.50$18.00-2.7%
(in average)$18.50$18.00-3.0%

Financials and fundamental analysis

Earnings date and Earnings per Share

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance presented tiny results for 2018-Q4 on February. Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance gained Earnings per Share (EPS) by 4.70%, beating analysts estimates of $0.43. Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance posted $0.45.
ARI earnings date and EPS evolution
QuarterReporting dateEstimated EPSActual EPSSurprise
2017-Q2-n/a0.27n/a
2017-Q32017-11-010.460.472.2%
2017-Q42018-02-140.10.1220.0%
2018-Q12018-05-020.410.38-7.3%
2018-Q22018-07-250.410.410.0%
2018-Q32018-10-240.460.41-10.9%
2018-Q42019-02-130.430.454.7%
2019-Q1-n/an/an/a
2019-Q2-n/an/an/a
2019-Q3-n/an/an/a

Annual financial results

Compared to 2017, last anual turnover report draw an extraordinary gain of 17.34% to $299.45 million dollars. On the other hand, its earnings margin (compared to revenues) declined to 73.46%, that is $219.99 million.

ARI annual Sales and Income evolution
YearSalesYoYIncome/(margin)YoY
2013$77 M-$52 M66.9%-
2014$89 M15.18%$83 M92.9%60.07%
2015$126 M41.39%$103 M82.0%24.80%
2016$181 M44.02%$158 M87.1%52.90%
2017$255 M40.75%$193 M75.6%22.27%
2018$299 M17.34%$220 M73.5%13.96%

Quarterly financial results

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance posted $81.77 million in sales for 2018-Q4, a 2.03% up compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter income marked $52.99 million with a profit margin of 64.80%. Profit margin plunged a -12.82% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was 77.63%. When comparing revenues to same quarter last year, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance sales marked an amazing increase and boosted a 68.94%. Looking back to recent quarterly results, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance posted 4 positive quarters in a row.
ARI quarterly Sales and Income evolution
QuarterSales1QoQ2Income1/(margin)QoQ2
2017-Q2$81 M-$36 M43.7%-
2017-Q3$87 M6.58%$68 M78.0%90.20%
2017-Q4$48 M-44.26%$41 M85.4%-39.00%
2018-Q1$54 M12.46%$49 M90.8%19.64%
2018-Q2$75 M37.81%$55 M73.8%11.96%
2018-Q3$80 M6.85%$62 M77.6%12.41%
2018-Q4$82 M2.03%$53 M64.8%-14.83%
2019-Q1$84 M2.14%$68 M81.1%27.87%

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance ownership

When you are planning to buy shares of a stock, it's always worth to review its ownership structure.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance shares owned by insiders (that is, founders, CEO, CTO, main executives or other management staff) currently counts a 0.00% of all shares.

In case of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance stock, 0.08% of its shares are held by institutions (mutual funds, pension funds, big banks and other large financial institutions). Bearish positions for ARI stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.

The following table compares ownership indicators for other stocks related to Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance:

ARINTPO
Market cap$3.0 B$335.4 M$24.1 B
Total shares153.5 M38.2 M318.2 M
Float shares142.5 M23.4 M317.4 M
  - Institutional holdings (%)0.1%19.8%74.6%
  - Insider holdings (%)0.0%43.8%0.2%
Shares in short selling0.0%0.0%0.0%

ARI summary

Friday, September 20th, 2019
Open$19.56
Close$19.55
Day range$19.47 - $19.65
Previous close$19.55
Session gain0.00%
Average true range$0.19
50d mov avg$18.84
100d mov avg$18.56
200d mov avg$17.89
Daily pattern
Weekly pattern lt06a

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance performance

To better understand Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance performance you must compare its gains with other related stocks in same sector or industry. For Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, the benchmark is made against Nam Tai Property and Realty Income.
Stock3m6m12m
ARI7.12%11.97%11.71%
NTPNam Tai Property-7.68%-11.95%-13.43%
ORealty Income5.67%6.18%38.14%

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance competitors

Defining a list of competitors for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance it's difficult. We selected 2 public companies that are related to and can be considered as competitors of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance: