ARI stock: buy or sell?

ARI stock price: $8.94 -5.10% At close on March 27th, 2020

Updated on:
March 27th, 2020

2

After boosting an astounding 21.23% on Mar/26, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance closed yesterday at $8.94 and plunged a dreadful -5.10%.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) that primarily originates, acquires, invests in, and manages commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate-related debt investments in the United States.

Should I buy ARI stock?

Even if you are a experienced or a novel trader, best trading results come from using an investing strategy that never leaves to random or subjective opinions when is the best moment to buy or sell stocks. Trading strategies are meant for helping you in the decision process of what stocks to pick and when is the best moment to buy them. There are thousands of trading strategies for you to choose, but at Stocks2.com we prefer those that are simple but successful.

None of our preferred buy setups matches with Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance stock situation right now, therefore this is not a suitable entry point.

Buy setupElegible
New all-time highNo
New 52 week highNo
Price crossing up 200d MANo
100d MA crossing up 200d MANo
This doesn't mean ARI will fall in coming sessions, or it will not rise higher. Simply, it doesn't match our recommended trading systems.

Is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance stock a buy?

Everyday, hundreds of stock ratings are published by financial analysts to indicate a particular stock's attractiveness. Unfortunately, we couldn't detect any rating for ARI stock for the last month.

ARI stock analysis

Daily outlook

After boosting an astounding 21.23% on March/26, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance closed yesterday at $8.94 and plunged a dreadful -5.10%.

After boosting an astounding 21.23% on Mar/26, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance closed yesterday at $8.94 and plunged a dreadful -5.10%. Since last February 25th when ARI stock price broke down the SMA200d line, it slid $-9.01 per share (-50.19%).

ARI stock chart (daily)

Weekly outlook

After sliding a scary -68.81% in a week last week, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance closed this week at $8.94 and rocketed an exceptional 27.90%.

Since late February, when ARI stock price broke down the 40-weeks moving avarage line, it slid $-9.33 per share (-51.07%). Trading stocks that are under the 40-weeks (that is, 200-days) moving average mark is not recommended by many experts, as it indicates that the stock has not enough institutional support. Far behind is the all-time high Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance recorded by mid September 2019 and since then the price is -52.52% below that top.

ARI stock chart (weekly)

ARI stock price history

ARI stock went public on September 25th, 2009 with a price of $6.851. Since then, ARI stock surged a 30.50%, with a yearly average of 3.10%. If you had invested $1,000 in ARI stock in 2009, it would worth $305.00 today.

1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.

ARI stock historical price chart

ARI stock reached all-time highs on September with a price of $18.83.

ARI stock price target

Predicting the price evolution of a stock or any financial instrument in a reliable and repeatable way is probably impossible. However, financial institutions invest time and resources to provide the most accurated estimations to help investors to make their decisions. We do not recommend to follow these stock price predictions without a critical thinking from your side, as their accuracy is usually low. For the last 30 days we have not found any price forecast for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance stock by any trusted analyst.

Financials and fundamental analysis

Earnings date and Earnings per Share

, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance reported its latest financial data, posting a slightly good climb for the Earnings per Share (EPS) ratio. Experts were expecting $0.43 per share, but Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance posted $0.45.
ARI earnings date and EPS evolution
QuarterReporting dateEstimated EPSActual EPSSurprise
2017-Q2-n/a0.27n/a
2017-Q32017-11-010.460.472.2%
2017-Q42018-02-140.10.1220.0%
2018-Q12018-05-020.410.38-7.3%
2018-Q22018-07-250.410.410.0%
2018-Q32018-10-240.460.41-10.9%
2018-Q42019-02-130.430.454.7%
2019-Q1-n/an/an/a
2019-Q2-n/an/an/a
2019-Q3-n/an/an/a

Annual financial results

Compared to 2017, last anual turnover report draw an outstanding gain of 17.34% to $299.45 million USD. On the other hand, its income margin (compared to sales) slightly fell to 73.46%, that is $219.99 million.

ARI annual Sales and Income evolution
YearSalesYoYIncome/(margin)YoY
2013$77 M-$52 M66.9%-
2014$89 M15.18%$83 M92.9%60.07%
2015$126 M41.39%$103 M82.0%24.80%
2016$181 M44.02%$158 M87.1%52.90%
2017$255 M40.75%$193 M75.6%22.27%
2018$299 M17.34%$220 M73.5%13.96%

Quarterly financial results

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance reported $81.77 M in sales for 2018-Q4, a 2.03% up compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter earnings marked $52.99 million with a profit margin of 64.80%. Profit margin collapsed a -12.82% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was 77.63%. When comparing sales to same quarter last year, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance sales marked an astounding increase and boosted a 68.94%. Looking back to recent quarterly results, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance posted 4 negative quarters in a row.
ARI quarterly Sales and Income evolution
QuarterSales1QoQ2Income1/(margin)QoQ2
2017-Q2$81 M-$36 M43.7%-
2017-Q3$87 M6.58%$68 M78.0%90.20%
2017-Q4$48 M-44.26%$41 M85.4%-39.00%
2018-Q1$54 M12.46%$49 M90.8%19.64%
2018-Q2$75 M37.81%$55 M73.8%11.96%
2018-Q3$80 M6.85%$62 M77.6%12.41%
2018-Q4$82 M2.03%$53 M64.8%-14.83%
2019-Q1$84 M2.14%$68 M81.1%27.87%

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance ownership

When you are planning to buy shares of a company, it's worth to review its ownership structure.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance shares owned by insiders (that is, founders, CEO, CTO, main executives or other management staff) currently counts a 0.00% of all shares.

In case of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance stock, 0.08% of its shares are held by institutions (mutual funds, pension funds, big banks and other large financial institutions). Bearish positions for ARI stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.

The following table compares ownership indicators for other stocks related to Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance:

ARI
Market cap$1.4 B
Total shares153.5 M
Float shares153.4 M
  - Institutional holdings (%)0.1%
  - Insider holdings (%)0.0%
Shares in short selling0.0%

ARI summary

Friday, March 27th, 2020
Open$9.16
Close$8.94
Day range$8.61 - $9.65
Previous close$9.42
Session gain-5.10%
Average true range$2.25
50d mov avg$15.42
100d mov avg$16.69
200d mov avg$17.33
Daily pattern
Weekly pattern

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance performance

Performance as an absolute value is never valid if it's not benchmarked against competitors or related stocks in the industry. For Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, the comparison is made against .
Stock3m6m12m
ARI-51.60%-52.12%-47.13%

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance competitors

Unfortunately, we could not find any public company that could be defined as Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance competitor. This doesn't mean Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance does not have any competitor in the market, it's just we could not detected it.