ALSN stock: buy or sell?

ALSN stock price: $46.33 -0.26% At close on September 20th, 2019

Updated on:
September 20th, 2019

4

Allison Transmission remained steady a bad -0.26% and closed at $46.33. With Friday it's been 5 sliding days in a row, loosing $-1.17 (-2.51%).

Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells commercial and defense fully-automatic transmissions for medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles, and medium- and heavy-tactical U.

Should I buy ALSN stock?

You can't be a successful trader if you don't follow a methodolgy or system that assist you in choosing companies and the correct market timing. Following a trading plan helps to make decisions easier, quicker and with less hesitations. There are thousands of trading strategies for you to choose, but at Stocks2.com we prefer those that are simple but successful.

Currently, Allison Transmission stock doesn't match any of these trading strategies, so our recommendation is not to buy.

Buy setupElegible
New all-time highNo
New 52 week highNo
Price crossing up 200d MANo
100d MA crossing up 200d MANo
This doesn't mean ALSN will fall in coming sessions, or it will not rise higher. Simply, it doesn't match our recommended trading systems.

Is Allison Transmission stock a buy?

Financial institutions and banks publish stock ratings everyday. At Stocks2.com, we gathered 4 ratings published for ALSN stock in the last 30 days.

Is ALSN a good stock to buy?
DateAnalyst / BrokerPrevious ratingCurrent rating
2019-7-17Morgan Stanleyn/aEqual Weight
2019-3-6Stifel NicolausBuyHold
2019-2-27Credit Suisse GroupOutperformOutperform
2019-1-16MizuhoBuyNeutral

ALSN stock analysis

Daily outlook

Allison Transmission shares remained constant -0.26% to $46.33 today.

Allison Transmission shares remained constant -0.26% to $46.33 today. Since Sep/9 when ALSN stock price broke up the SMA200d line, it gained $1.36 (3.02%). ALSN shows a short term strength with several rising tops and rising bottoms. In the very short term, on Sep/18 it marked a new bottom at $46.16 that should act a support if Allison Transmission starts a trading flat base in the range of $46.16 - $47.67 If Allison Transmission breakouts over $47.67 with average or higher volume, this would be a clear signal that the uptrend resumes.

ALSN stock chart (daily)

Weekly outlook

After boosting an impressive 5.33% in a week last week, Allison Transmission closed this week at $46.33 and slipped an awful -2.46%. This week broke a green streak of 4 weeks.

Since price and SMA40w lines crossed up last week, ALSN climbed $1.36 (3.02%). Far behind is the all-time high Allison Transmission marked early October and since then the price is -12.70% below that top.

ALSN stock chart (weekly)

ALSN stock price history

ALSN IPO was on March 15th, 2012 at $20.29 per share1. Since then, ALSN stock grew a 128.30%, with an average of 18.30% per year. If you had invested right after ALSN's IPO a $1,000 in ALSN stock in 2012, it would worth $1,283.00 today.

1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.

ALSN stock historical price chart

ALSN stock reached all-time highs on October with a price of $53.07.

ALSN stock price target is $51.50

Nobody can reliably foresee how stock prices may evolve in the future. However, financial institutions invest time and resources to provide the most accurated estimations to help investors to make their decisions. The accuracy of these stock price predictions is not very high, and you should not blindly believe and make decisions only based on what this ratings or price target predictions say. We detected 4 price predictions for Allison Transmission stock released in the last 30 days:
ALSN stock price predictions
DateAnalyst / BrokerActionPrevious targetCurrent targetDiff
2019-7-17Morgan StanleyInitiatesn/a$50.00-
2019-3-6Stifel NicolausDowngrades$55.00$48.00-12.7%
2019-2-27Credit Suisse GroupRaises Target$54.00$55.001.9%
2019-1-16MizuhoDowngradesn/a$53.00-
(in average)$54.50$51.50-6.0%
Moving in a range from $55.00 and $48.00, the price forecast for Allison Transmission stock is $51.50. In average, analysts' outlook on ALSN price forecast is negative, downsizing the target by a -6.00% from previous estimations.

Financials and fundamental analysis

Earnings date and Earnings per Share

On February, Allison Transmission presented its financial report, posting a wonderful climb for the Earnings per Share (EPS) ratio. Experts were expecting $0.95 per share, but Allison Transmission posted $1.14.
ALSN earnings date and EPS evolution
QuarterReporting dateEstimated EPSActual EPSSurprise
2017-Q2-n/a0.62n/a
2017-Q32017-10-300.50.7550.0%
2017-Q42018-02-140.590.8137.3%
2018-Q12018-04-300.791.0836.7%
2018-Q22018-07-3011.2929.0%
2018-Q32018-10-291.091.2716.5%
2018-Q42019-02-250.951.1420.0%
2019-Q1-n/an/an/a
2019-Q2-n/an/an/a
2019-Q3-n/an/an/a

Annual financial results

In 2018, Allison Transmission annual revenues rocketed an outstanding 19.94% to $2,713.00 million dollars from $2,262.00 marked in 2017. On the other hand, its profit margin (compared to sales) grew to 23.55%, that is $639.00 million.

ALSN annual Sales and Income evolution
YearSalesYoYIncome/(margin)YoY
2013$1,930 M-$165 M8.6%-
2014$2,127 M10.23%$229 M10.7%38.21%
2015$1,986 M-6.66%$182 M9.2%-20.25%
2016$1,840 M-7.33%$215 M11.7%17.88%
2017$2,262 M22.92%$504 M22.3%134.53%
2018$2,713 M19.94%$639 M23.6%26.79%

Quarterly financial results

Allison Transmission posted $647.00 million in revenues for 2018-Q4, a -6.50% less compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter income marked $147.00 million with a profit margin of 22.72%. Profit margin depreciated a -1.41% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was 24.13%. When comparing turnover to same quarter last year, Allison Transmission sales marked a cool increase and climbed a 10.03%. Looking back to recent quarterly results, Allison Transmission posted 2 negative quarters in a row.
ALSN quarterly Sales and Income evolution
QuarterSales1QoQ2Income1/(margin)QoQ2
2017-Q2$580 M-$95 M16.4%-
2017-Q3$595 M2.59%$111 M18.7%16.84%
2017-Q4$588 M-1.18%$215 M36.6%93.69%
2018-Q1$663 M12.76%$151 M22.8%-29.77%
2018-Q2$711 M7.24%$174 M24.5%15.23%
2018-Q3$692 M-2.67%$167 M24.1%-4.02%
2018-Q4$647 M-6.50%$147 M22.7%-11.98%
2019-Q1$675 M4.33%$167 M24.7%13.61%

Allison Transmission ownership

When you are planning to invest in a company, it's worth to overview its ownership structure.

Allison Transmission shares owned by insiders (that is, founders, CEO, CTO, main executives or other management staff) currently counts a 0.77% of all shares.

Bearish positions for ALSN stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.

The following table compares ownership indicators for other stocks related to Allison Transmission:

ALSNCNHIHONMTORNAV
Market cap$5.6 B$14.4 B$121.2 B$1.5 B$2.8 B
Total shares120.5 M1,350.0 M719.5 M82.6 M99.2 M
Float shares119.4 M1,340.0 M687.1 M73.3 M49.2 M
  - Institutional holdings (%)101.8%42.0%77.1%94.6%79.5%
  - Insider holdings (%)0.8%26.9%0.4%2.5%17.1%
Shares in short selling0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

ALSN summary

Friday, September 20th, 2019
Open$46.49
Close$46.33
Day range$46.24 - $47.25
Previous close$46.45
Session gain-0.26%
Average true range$0.99
50d mov avg$45.02
100d mov avg$44.77
200d mov avg$45.48
Daily patternlb03a
Weekly pattern

Allison Transmission performance

Performance as an absolute value is never valid if it's not benchmarked against competitors or related stocks in the industry. In the following table, we compare Allison Transmission to CNH Industrial, Honeywell International, Meritor, Navistar International, Spartan Motors, Sypris Solutions, Thor Industries and Winnebago Industries:
Stock3m6m12m
ALSNAllison Transmiss...2.32%4.63%-12.17%
CNHICNH Industrial5.84%4.29%-13.65%
HONHoneywell Interna...-2.92%9.13%7.19%
MTORMeritor-20.66%-6.95%-10.99%
NAVNavistar Internat...-16.05%-9.38%-31.64%
SPARSpartan Motors35.10%64.64%-9.76%
SYPRSypris Solutions18.39%-7.21%-26.95%
THOThor Industries-4.24%-5.06%-37.48%
WGOWinnebago Industr...3.01%38.85%11.35%

Allison Transmission competitors

We picked a few stocks to conform a list of Allison Transmission competitors to review if you are interested in investing in ALSN: