Air Lease stock: buy or sell?
September 20th, 2019
Air Lease Corporation, an aircraft leasing company, engages in the purchase and leasing of commercial jet transport aircraft to airlines worldwide.
Should I buy Air Lease stock?Trading stocks requires experience and discipline, and your buying and selling decisions must come following a methodology. Having a trading strategy helps to make decisions easier, quicker and with less hesitations. There are thousands of trading strategies for you to choose, but at Stocks2.com we prefer those that are simple but successful.
Currently, Air Lease stock doesn't match any of these trading strategies, so our recommendation is not to buy.
|New all-time high||No|
|New 52 week high||No|
|Price crossing up 200d MA||No|
|100d MA crossing up 200d MA||No|
Is Air Lease stock a buy?
Everyday, hundreds of stock ratings are posted by financial analysts to indicate a particular stock's attractiveness.At Stocks2.com, we collected 3 ratings published for AL stock in the last month.
|Date||Analyst / Broker||Previous rating||Current rating|
|2019-4-8||Goldman Sachs Group||n/a||Buy|
Air Lease stock analysis
Shares of Air Lease closed today at $42.68 and decreased a fateful -1.43%.
Air Lease shares decreased -1.43% to $42.68 today. Since July when SMA100d and SMA200d crossed up, AL price gained $1.11 per share (2.67%). Since June when AL stock price broke up the SMA200d line, it gained $6.51 (18.00%). From a daily outlook perspective, AL is drawing an uptrend of rising tops and rising bottoms. Since its last top on September 13th at $45.43, price slid and bounced up back from $42.92. Breaking down under $42.92 would cancel the current uptrend and it might slide further to test lower supports. Note that $45.43 might act as a resistance line. Trading the long side, we should wait to a new breakout over $45.43 to find the next buy point.
After boosting a wonderful 5.16% in a week last week, Air Lease closed this week at $42.68 and fell a fateful -3.07%. Late July AL collapsed a hair-raising -6.68% in just one week. After 4 weeks soaring, this week declined a -3.23%.
Air Lease stock is trading in the range of its last top and last bottom. Loosing would mean breaking the current uptrend. Breakdowns under last bottom are selling point signals for some trading strategies. Late June, SMA20w and SMA40w crossed up triggering a rise of 6.30%. Early June AL price bounced up over the SMA of 40 weeks that acted as support stopping new slides.
Air Lease stock price history
Air Lease stock went public on April 19th, 2011 with a price of $25.981. Since then, AL stock surged a 64.30%, with a yearly average of 8.00%. If you had invested $1,000 in Air Lease stock in 2011, it would worth $643.00 today.
1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.
Air Lease stock historical price chart
AL stock reached 52-week highs at $45.96, and all-time highs 2018-01-29 with a price of 49.66.
Air Lease stock price target is $50.00Predicting the price evolution of a stock or any financial instrument in a reliable and repeatable way is probably impossible. However, many stock price predictions are published every day by banks, financial institutions and independent analysts. The accuracy of these stock price predictions is not very high, and you should not blindly believe and make decisions only based on what this ratings or price target predictions say. For the last month we found 3 price predictions for Air Lease stock:
|Date||Analyst / Broker||Action||Previous target||Current target||Diff|
|2019-4-8||Goldman Sachs Group||Initiates||n/a||$52.00||-|
Financials and fundamental analysis
Earnings date and Earnings per ShareOn February, Air Lease matched the forecasts of the experts and posted an EPS of $1.24 per share. As soon as we get its actual EPS from the earnings report, we will update this review.
|Quarter||Reporting date||Estimated EPS||Actual EPS||Surprise|
Annual financial resultsIn 2018, Air Lease annual turnover rocketed a great 10.77% to $1,679.70 million dollars from $1,516.38 marked in 2017. When comparing 2018 vs 2017, in contrast, profit margin (that is, the net income divided by revenues) plummed a -19.45% to 30.41%.
|2013||$859 M||-||$190 M22.2%||-|
|2014||$1,050 M||22.34%||$256 M24.4%||34.45%|
|2015||$1,223 M||16.41%||$253 M20.7%||-1.02%|
|2016||$1,419 M||16.05%||$375 M26.4%||47.96%|
|2017||$1,516 M||6.86%||$756 M49.9%||101.68%|
|2018||$1,680 M||10.77%||$511 M30.4%||-32.44%|
Quarterly financial resultsAir Lease posted $449.98 M in sales for 2018-Q4, a -0.16% decline compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter income marked $138.40 M with a profit margin of 30.76%. Profit margin depreciated a -1.76% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was 32.52%. When comparing sales to same quarter last year, Air Lease sales marked an exceptional growth and skyrocketed a 12.93%.
|2017-Q1||$360 M||-||$85 M23.6%||-|
|2017-Q2||$362 M||0.60%||$101 M27.9%||18.83%|
|2017-Q3||$377 M||3.98%||$99 M26.3%||-1.73%|
|2017-Q4||$398 M||5.76%||$471 M118.2%||374.96%|
|2018-Q1||$381 M||-4.33%||$111 M29.0%||-76.51%|
|2018-Q2||$398 M||4.36%||$115 M29.0%||4.12%|
|2018-Q3||$451 M||13.29%||$147 M32.5%||27.22%|
|2018-Q4||$450 M||-0.16%||$138 M30.8%||-5.58%|
Air Lease ownershipWhen you are planning to invest in a stock, it's always worth to review its ownership structure.
Management staff in all public traded companies that hold equity is required to report every transaction to the SEC. For Air Lease, 28.49% of all outstanding shares are owned by its staff.
In case of Air Lease stock, 0.11% of its shares are held by institutions (mutual funds, pension funds, big banks and other large financial institutions). Bearish positions for AL stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.
For a better understanding, the following table shows ownership data compared to other related stocks:
|Market cap||$4.8 B||$10.0 M||$7.5 B||$1.7 B||$397.9 M|
|Total shares||111.7 M||1.6 M||136.6 M||75.0 M||17.4 M|
|Float shares||104.1 M||1.2 M||130.4 M||51.7 M||12.3 M|
|- Institutional holdings (%)||0.1%||18.6%||99.0%||60.7%||89.0%|
|- Insider holdings (%)||28.5%||21.2%||12.2%||30.9%||13.8%|
|Shares in short selling||0.0%||0.0%||0.0%||0.0%||0.0%|
Air Lease summary
|Friday, September 20th, 2019|
|Day range||$42.40 - $43.62|
|Average true range||$1.07|
|50d mov avg||$40.94|
|100d mov avg||$39.88|
|200d mov avg||$37.65|
Air Lease performanceTo measure stock performance is always good to compare with competitors or related stocks. We compared Air Lease against AeroCentury, Aercap, Aircastle, CAI International, Fly Leasing, Textainer and Willis Lease Finance in the following table:
|WLFCWillis Lease Fina...||2.95%||44.07%||64.29%|