Air Lease stock: buy or sell?

AL stock price: $42.68 -1.43% At close on September 20th, 2019

Updated on:
September 20th, 2019

2

Air Lease shares decreased -1.43% to $42.68 today. With Friday it's been 5 sliding days in a row, loosing $-1.35 (-3.01%).

Air Lease Corporation, an aircraft leasing company, engages in the purchase and leasing of commercial jet transport aircraft to airlines worldwide.

Should I buy Air Lease stock?

Trading stocks requires experience and discipline, and your buying and selling decisions must come following a methodology. Having a trading strategy helps to make decisions easier, quicker and with less hesitations. There are thousands of trading strategies for you to choose, but at Stocks2.com we prefer those that are simple but successful.

Currently, Air Lease stock doesn't match any of these trading strategies, so our recommendation is not to buy.

Buy setupElegible
New all-time highNo
New 52 week highNo
Price crossing up 200d MANo
100d MA crossing up 200d MANo
This doesn't mean AL will slide in coming sessions, or it will not rise higher. Simply, it doesn't match our recommended trading systems.

Is Air Lease stock a buy?

Everyday, hundreds of stock ratings are posted by financial analysts to indicate a particular stock's attractiveness. At Stocks2.com, we collected 3 ratings published for AL stock in the last month.

Is AL a good stock to buy?
DateAnalyst / BrokerPrevious ratingCurrent rating
2019-8-9CowenOutperformOutperform
2019-8-9CowenOutperformOutperform
2019-4-8Goldman Sachs Groupn/aBuy

Air Lease stock analysis

Daily outlook

Shares of Air Lease closed today at $42.68 and decreased a fateful -1.43%.

Air Lease shares decreased -1.43% to $42.68 today. Since July when SMA100d and SMA200d crossed up, AL price gained $1.11 per share (2.67%). Since June when AL stock price broke up the SMA200d line, it gained $6.51 (18.00%). From a daily outlook perspective, AL is drawing an uptrend of rising tops and rising bottoms. Since its last top on September 13th at $45.43, price slid and bounced up back from $42.92. Breaking down under $42.92 would cancel the current uptrend and it might slide further to test lower supports. Note that $45.43 might act as a resistance line. Trading the long side, we should wait to a new breakout over $45.43 to find the next buy point.

AL stock chart (daily)

Weekly outlook

After boosting a wonderful 5.16% in a week last week, Air Lease closed this week at $42.68 and fell a fateful -3.07%. Late July AL collapsed a hair-raising -6.68% in just one week. After 4 weeks soaring, this week declined a -3.23%.

Air Lease stock is trading in the range of its last top and last bottom. Loosing would mean breaking the current uptrend. Breakdowns under last bottom are selling point signals for some trading strategies. Late June, SMA20w and SMA40w crossed up triggering a rise of 6.30%. Early June AL price bounced up over the SMA of 40 weeks that acted as support stopping new slides.

AL stock chart (weekly)

Air Lease stock price history

Air Lease stock went public on April 19th, 2011 with a price of $25.981. Since then, AL stock surged a 64.30%, with a yearly average of 8.00%. If you had invested $1,000 in Air Lease stock in 2011, it would worth $643.00 today.

1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.

Air Lease stock historical price chart

AL stock reached 52-week highs at $45.96, and all-time highs 2018-01-29 with a price of 49.66.

Air Lease stock price target is $50.00

Predicting the price evolution of a stock or any financial instrument in a reliable and repeatable way is probably impossible. However, many stock price predictions are published every day by banks, financial institutions and independent analysts. The accuracy of these stock price predictions is not very high, and you should not blindly believe and make decisions only based on what this ratings or price target predictions say. For the last month we found 3 price predictions for Air Lease stock:
AL stock price predictions
DateAnalyst / BrokerActionPrevious targetCurrent targetDiff
2019-8-9CowenReiterates$50.00$49.00-2%
2019-8-9CowenLowers Target$50.00$49.00-2%
2019-4-8Goldman Sachs GroupInitiatesn/a$52.00-
(in average)$50.00$50.000.0%
The price target for Air Lease stock is $50.00, moving in a range between $52.00 and $49.00. In average, analysts' outlook on AL price target is stable from previous estimations.

Financials and fundamental analysis

Earnings date and Earnings per Share

On February, Air Lease matched the forecasts of the experts and posted an EPS of $1.24 per share. As soon as we get its actual EPS from the earnings report, we will update this review.
AL earnings date and EPS evolution
QuarterReporting dateEstimated EPSActual EPSSurprise
2017-Q1-n/a0.78n/a
2017-Q2-n/a0.92n/a
2017-Q32017-11-090.860.94.7%
2017-Q42018-02-220.871.0621.8%
2018-Q12018-05-100.9515.3%
2018-Q22018-08-091.041.040.0%
2018-Q32018-11-081.231.327.3%
2018-Q42019-02-211.231.240.8%
2019-Q1-n/an/an/a
2019-Q2-n/an/an/a

Annual financial results

In 2018, Air Lease annual turnover rocketed a great 10.77% to $1,679.70 million dollars from $1,516.38 marked in 2017. When comparing 2018 vs 2017, in contrast, profit margin (that is, the net income divided by revenues) plummed a -19.45% to 30.41%.

AL annual Sales and Income evolution
YearSalesYoYIncome/(margin)YoY
2013$859 M-$190 M22.2%-
2014$1,050 M22.34%$256 M24.4%34.45%
2015$1,223 M16.41%$253 M20.7%-1.02%
2016$1,419 M16.05%$375 M26.4%47.96%
2017$1,516 M6.86%$756 M49.9%101.68%
2018$1,680 M10.77%$511 M30.4%-32.44%

Quarterly financial results

Air Lease posted $449.98 M in sales for 2018-Q4, a -0.16% decline compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter income marked $138.40 M with a profit margin of 30.76%. Profit margin depreciated a -1.76% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was 32.52%. When comparing sales to same quarter last year, Air Lease sales marked an exceptional growth and skyrocketed a 12.93%.
AL quarterly Sales and Income evolution
QuarterSales1QoQ2Income1/(margin)QoQ2
2017-Q1$360 M-$85 M23.6%-
2017-Q2$362 M0.60%$101 M27.9%18.83%
2017-Q3$377 M3.98%$99 M26.3%-1.73%
2017-Q4$398 M5.76%$471 M118.2%374.96%
2018-Q1$381 M-4.33%$111 M29.0%-76.51%
2018-Q2$398 M4.36%$115 M29.0%4.12%
2018-Q3$451 M13.29%$147 M32.5%27.22%
2018-Q4$450 M-0.16%$138 M30.8%-5.58%

Air Lease ownership

When you are planning to invest in a stock, it's always worth to review its ownership structure.

Management staff in all public traded companies that hold equity is required to report every transaction to the SEC. For Air Lease, 28.49% of all outstanding shares are owned by its staff.

In case of Air Lease stock, 0.11% of its shares are held by institutions (mutual funds, pension funds, big banks and other large financial institutions). Bearish positions for AL stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.

For a better understanding, the following table shows ownership data compared to other related stocks:

ALACYAERAYRCAI
Market cap$4.8 B$10.0 M$7.5 B$1.7 B$397.9 M
Total shares111.7 M1.6 M136.6 M75.0 M17.4 M
Float shares104.1 M1.2 M130.4 M51.7 M12.3 M
  - Institutional holdings (%)0.1%18.6%99.0%60.7%89.0%
  - Insider holdings (%)28.5%21.2%12.2%30.9%13.8%
Shares in short selling0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Air Lease summary

Friday, September 20th, 2019
Open$43.38
Close$42.68
Day range$42.40 - $43.62
Previous close$43.30
Session gain-1.43%
Average true range$1.07
50d mov avg$40.94
100d mov avg$39.88
200d mov avg$37.65
Daily patternlb03a
Weekly pattern lt06a

Air Lease performance

To measure stock performance is always good to compare with competitors or related stocks. We compared Air Lease against AeroCentury, Aercap, Aircastle, CAI International, Fly Leasing, Textainer and Willis Lease Finance in the following table:
Stock3m6m12m
ALAir Lease6.30%31.44%-6.22%
ACYAeroCentury-13.83%-46.90%-62.57%
AERAercap9.58%22.76%-4.24%
AYRAircastle11.85%18.37%14.61%
CAICAI International-6.16%2.93%-13.75%
FLYFly Leasing24.93%57.60%47.59%
TGHTextainer11.03%11.26%-21.10%
WLFCWillis Lease Fina...2.95%44.07%64.29%

Air Lease competitors

One check before trading any stock is to have a look a list of its competitors, in this case for Air Lease. We selected 7 companies as Air Lease competitors as they are in the same industry or have similar market objectives.