Akebia stock: buy or sell?

AKBA stock price: $5.91 -2.48% At close on December 6th, 2019

Updated on:
December 6th, 2019

2

Akebia dropped a tragic -2.48% and closed at $5.91. On Monday AKBA collapsed a scary -18.23%. On Tuesday AKBA rocketed an outstanding 12.36%.

Akebia Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of novel therapeutics to patients with kidney disease through hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF) biology.

Should I buy Akebia stock?

Make a decision about when to buy or sell stocks is one of the hardest parts of being a trader or investor. That's why is so important to define your own trading strategy that matches with your character as inversor. There are thousands of trading strategies for you to choose, but at Stocks2.com we prefer those that are simple but successful.

Currently, Akebia stock doesn't match any of these trading strategies, so our recommendation is not to buy.

Buy setupElegible
New all-time highNo
New 52 week highNo
Price crossing up 200d MANo
100d MA crossing up 200d MANo
This is not a selling recommendation at all, just it's not the best moment to buy if you follow any of these trading strategies.

Is Akebia stock a buy?

Banks and financial institutions post stock ratings everyday. At Stocks2.com, we collected 6 ratings published for AKBA stock in the last month.

The general sentiment of these ratings is bullish for AKBA stock, with 5 positive ratings.
Is AKBA a good stock to buy?
DateAnalyst / BrokerPrevious ratingCurrent rating
2019-9-9HC Wainwrightn/aBuy
2019-8-6HC WainwrightBuyBuy
2019-8-6HC WainwrightBuyBuy
2019-7-11HC WainwrightBuyBuy
2019-5-2JPMorgan Chase & Co.n/aOverweight
2019-3-20Citigroupn/aNeutral

Akebia stock analysis

Daily outlook

Akebia Therapeutics shares dropped -2.48% to $5.91 today.

Akebia Therapeutics shares dropped -2.48% to $5.91 today. Since price and SMA200d lines crossed up on Nov/27, AKBA climbed $0.94 (18.91%). From a daily perspective, AKBA is in a short term uptrend after plotting its last bottom ($3.06, on November 19th) higher than the previous bottom, and its last top ($6.56, on November 29th) also over the previous top. Now trading in between its last bottom and last top AKBA might consolidate in a plain range, waiting to break out over $6.56 or down under $3.06.

AKBA stock chart (daily)

Weekly outlook

After boosting a super good 33.07% in a week last week, Akebia closed this week at $5.91 and collapsed a dreadful -6.04%.

Since price and SMA40w lines crossed up last week, AKBA climbed $1.70 (40.38%). Since this week when SMA10w and SMA20w crossed up, AKBA price slipped $-0.38 per share (-6.04%).

AKBA stock chart (weekly)

Akebia stock price history

Akebia stock went public on March 20th, 2014 with a price of $22.901. Since then, AKBA stock sliced a -74.20%, with a yearly average of -14.80%.

1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.

Akebia stock historical price chart

AKBA stock reached 52-week highs on December at $10.45, and all-time highs 2014-06-20 with a price of 31.

Akebia stock price target is $16.20

Predicting the price evolution of a stock or any financial instrument in a reliable and repeatable way is probably impossible. However, many stock price predictions are published every day by banks, financial institutions and independent analysts. The accuracy of these stock price predictions is not very high, and you should not blindly believe and make decisions only based on what this ratings or price target predictions say. For the last 30 days we found 5 price targets for Akebia Therapeutics stock:
AKBA stock price predictions
DateAnalyst / BrokerActionPrevious targetCurrent targetDiff
2019-9-9HC WainwrightReiteratesn/a$17.00-
2019-8-6HC WainwrightReiterates$19.00$17.00-10.5%
2019-8-6HC WainwrightLowers Target$19.00$17.00-10.5%
2019-7-11HC WainwrightReiterates$23.00$21.00-8.7%
2019-3-20CitigroupInitiatesn/a$9.00-
(in average)$20.30$16.20-20.0%
Moving in a range from $21.00 and $9.00, the price forecast for AKBA stock is $16.20. In average, analysts' outlook on AKBA price forecast is negative, downgrading the target by a -20.00% from previous estimations.

Financials and fundamental analysis

Earnings date and Earnings per Share

On March, Akebia presented its financial report, posting an astounding growth for the Earnings per Share (EPS). Analyst were expecting $-0.27 per share, but Akebia Therapeutics posted $-0.91.
AKBA earnings date and EPS evolution
QuarterReporting dateEstimated EPSActual EPSSurprise
2017-Q1-n/a-1.15n/a
2017-Q2-n/a-0.53n/a
2017-Q32017-11-09-0.51-0.49n/a
2017-Q42018-03-12-0.180.25n/a
2018-Q12018-05-09-0.55-0.48n/a
2018-Q22018-08-08-0.52-0.6n/a
2018-Q32018-11-08-0.77-0.46n/a
2018-Q42019-03-26-0.27-0.91n/a
2019-Q1-n/an/an/a
2019-Q2-n/an/an/a

Annual financial results

Compared to 2017, last anual sales report draw an amazing gain of 14.63% to $207.74 million USD. By contrast, its income margin (compared to revenues) plummed to -69.12%, that is $-143.59 million.

AKBA annual Sales and Income evolution
YearSalesYoYIncome/(margin)YoY
2016$1.54 M-$-135.75 M-8843.5%-
2017$181 M11,706.32%$-73.67 M-40.7%-45.73%
2018$208 M14.63%$-143.59 M-69.1%94.90%

Quarterly financial results

Akebia posted $59.85 M in sales for 2018-Q4, a 12.57% up compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter earnings marked $-60.05 million with a profit margin of -100.34%. Profit margin plunged a -51.35% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was -48.99%. When comparing turnover to same quarter last year, Akebia Therapeutics sales marked a hair-raising decrease and collapsed a -31.46%. Looking back to recent quarterly results, Akebia Therapeutics posted 3 negative quarters in a row.
AKBA quarterly Sales and Income evolution
QuarterSales1QoQ2Income1/(margin)QoQ2
2017-Q1$21 M-$-44.54 M-213.4%-
2017-Q2$29 M36.66%$-21.52 M-75.5%-51.68%
2017-Q3$41 M44.75%$-23.13 M-56.0%7.50%
2017-Q4$87 M111.51%$12.28 M14.1%-153.08%
2018-Q1$46 M-47.40%$-23.42 M-51.0%-290.70%
2018-Q2$49 M6.23%$-34.07 M-69.8%45.48%
2018-Q3$53 M8.97%$-26.05 M-49.0%-23.55%
2018-Q4$60 M12.57%$-60.05 M-100.3%130.56%

Akebia ownership

When you are planning to buy a stock, it's always worth to check its ownership structure.

Akebia Therapeutics shares owned by insiders (that is, founders, CEO, CTO, main executives or other management staff) currently counts a 8.23% of all shares.

In case of Akebia Therapeutics stock, 70.12% of its shares are held by institutions (mutual funds, pension funds, big banks and other large financial institutions). Bearish positions for AKBA stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.

The following table compares ownership indicators for other stocks related to Akebia:

AKBAAMGNJNJNKTRNVS
Market cap$702.9 M$138.9 B$367.0 B$3.6 B$210.6 B
Total shares118.9 M594.2 M2,630.0 M175.9 M2,290.0 M
Float shares91.4 M592.9 M2,630.0 M174.1 M2,130.0 M
  - Institutional holdings (%)70.1%81.9%69.2%96.2%11.7%
  - Insider holdings (%)8.2%0.2%0.1%0.9%0.0%
Shares in short selling0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Akebia summary

Friday, December 6th, 2019
Open$6.21
Close$5.91
Day range$5.72 - $6.22
Previous close$6.06
Session gain-2.48%
Average true range$0.61
50d mov avg$4.19
100d mov avg$4.25
200d mov avg$5.16
Daily patternlt06a
Weekly pattern

Akebia performance

To measure stock performance is always good to benchmark with competitors or related stocks. In the following table, we compare Akebia Therapeutics performance to Amgen, , Nektar and Novartis:
Stock3m6m12m
AKBAAkebia Therapeuti...45.21%37.12%-30.72%
AMGNAmgen13.28%35.03%25.82%
JNJ9.60%2.19%-1.33%
NKTRNektar20.22%-38.03%-44.71%
NVSNovartis2.50%4.42%21.66%

Akebia competitors

We selected a few stocks to conform a list of Akebia competitors to examine if you are interested in investing in AKBA: