AGO stock: buy or sell?

AGO stock price: $23.99 10.25% At close on April 6th, 2020

Updated on:
April 6th, 2020

2

After sliding for 4 sessions, Monday Assured Guaranty skyrocketed a dazzling 10.25%, closing at $23.99. On Friday AGO plunged a hair-raising -9.60%. Last session broke a streak of 4 red sessions in a row.

Assured Guaranty Ltd., through its subsidiaries, provides credit protection products to public finance, infrastructure, and structured finance markets in the United States and internationally.

Should I buy AGO stock?

Trading stocks requires experience and discipline, and your buying and selling decisions must come following a methodology. Following a trading plan helps to make decisions easier, quicker and with less hesitations. There are thousands of trading strategies for you to choose, but at Stocks2.com we prefer those that are simple but successful.

None of our preferred buy setups matches with Assured Guaranty stock situation right now, hence this is not a suitable entry point.

Buy setupElegible
New all-time highNo
New 52 week highNo
Price crossing up 200d MANo
100d MA crossing up 200d MANo
This doesn't mean AGO will fall in coming sessions, or it will not rise higher. Simply, it doesn't match our recommended trading systems.

Is Assured Guaranty stock a buy?

Banks and financial institutions post stock ratings everyday. Unfortunately, we couldn't find any rating for AGO stock for the last 30 days.

AGO stock analysis

Daily outlook

After sliding for 4 days, Monday Assured Guaranty skyrocketed a dazzling 10.25%, closing at $23.99.

After sliding a hair-raising -9.60% on Friday, Assured Guaranty closed today at $23.99 and skyrocketed a dazzling 10.25%. Since last Feb/24 when AGO stock price broke down the SMA200d line, it slid $-22.06 per share (-47.90%). AGO is soaring again after a 27.85% correction from its last top on March 26th at $29.52. On December, AGO hit a new all time high, pushing higher than on December tops. Check different trading setups that use ATHs as triggers.

AGO stock chart (daily)

Weekly outlook

After sliding a frightening -18.29% in a week last week, Assured Guaranty closed this week at $23.99 and skyrocketed an amazing 10.25%.

Since price and 40-weeks moving average lines crossed down late February, AGO fell $-22.06 per share (-47.90%). Stocks below the 200 days moving average line are usually not recommended for average traders. Far behind is the all-time high Assured Guaranty hit by mid December 2019 and since then the price is -52.50% below that top.

AGO stock chart (weekly)

AGO stock price history

AGO IPO was on April 23rd, 2004 at $14.55 per share1. Since then, AGO stock grew a 64.90%, with a yearly average of 4.30%. If you had invested $1,000 in AGO stock in 2004, it would worth $649.00 today.

1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.

AGO stock historical price chart

AGO stock reached all-time highs on December with a price of $50.50.

AGO stock price target

Nobody can reliably foresee how stock prices may evolve in the future. However, financial institutions invest time and resources to provide the most accurated estimations to help investors to make their decisions. We do not recommend to follow these stock price predictions without a critical thinking from your side, as their accuracy is usually low. For the last 30 days we have not detected any price target for Assured Guaranty stock by any trusted analyst.

Financials and fundamental analysis

Earnings date and Earnings per Share

, when Assured Guaranty posted its last earnings report, it . Unfortunately, reported EPS is not yet available in our database.
AGO earnings date and EPS evolution
QuarterReporting dateEstimated EPSActual EPSSurprise
2017-Q1-n/a2.55n/a
2017-Q2-n/a1.28n/a
2017-Q32017-11-020.671.2992.5%
2017-Q42018-02-22n/a0.77n/a
2018-Q12018-05-03n/a1.33n/a
2018-Q22018-08-01n/a0.66n/a
2018-Q32018-11-08n/a1.47n/a
2018-Q42019-02-28n/a0.87n/a
2019-Q1-n/an/an/a
2019-Q2-n/an/an/a

Annual financial results

Compared to 2017, last anual turnover report draw a spooky slide of -40.39% to $1,002.00 million USD. When comparing 2018 vs 2017, in contrast, profit margin (that is, the net income divided by revenues) soared a 8.57% to 52.00%.

AGO annual Sales and Income evolution
YearSalesYoYIncome/(margin)YoY
2013$1,190 M-$807 M67.8%-
2014$1,994 M67.56%$1,088 M54.6%34.82%
2015$1,993 M-0.05%$1,056 M53.0%-2.94%
2016$1,418 M-28.85%$881 M62.1%-16.57%
2017$1,681 M18.55%$730 M43.4%-17.14%
2018$1,002 M-40.39%$521 M52.0%-28.63%

Quarterly financial results

Assured Guaranty reported $214.00 million in sales for 2018-Q4, a -21.90% less compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter earnings marked $88.00 million with a profit margin of 41.12%. Profit margin plummed a -17.64% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was 58.76%. When comparing revenues to same quarter last year, Assured Guaranty sales marked a hair-raising drop down and plunged a -23.84%.
AGO quarterly Sales and Income evolution
QuarterSales1QoQ2Income1/(margin)QoQ2
2017-Q1$421 M-$317 M75.3%-
2017-Q2$298 M-29.22%$153 M51.3%-51.74%
2017-Q3$623 M109.06%$208 M33.4%35.95%
2017-Q4$281 M-54.90%$52 M18.5%-75.00%
2018-Q1$293 M4.27%$197 M67.2%278.85%
2018-Q2$221 M-24.57%$75 M33.9%-61.93%
2018-Q3$274 M23.98%$161 M58.8%114.67%
2018-Q4$214 M-21.90%$88 M41.1%-45.34%

Assured Guaranty ownership

When you are planning to invest in shares of a stock, it's worth to check its ownership structure.

Assured Guaranty shares owned by insiders (that is, founders, CEO, CTO, main executives or other management staff) currently counts a 11.18% of all shares.

In case of Assured Guaranty stock, 0.00% of its shares are held by institutions (mutual funds, pension funds, big banks and other large financial institutions). Bearish positions for AGO stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.

The following table compares ownership indicators for other stocks related to Assured Guaranty:

AGO
Market cap$2.2 B
Total shares92.6 M
Float shares88.9 M
  - Institutional holdings (%)0.0%
  - Insider holdings (%)11.2%
Shares in short selling0.0%

AGO summary

Monday, April 6th, 2020
Open$23.03
Close$23.99
Day range$23.00 - $24.75
Previous close$21.76
Session gain10.25%
Average true range$4.08
50d mov avg$37.55
100d mov avg$43.13
200d mov avg$43.61
Daily patternlb01a
Weekly pattern lb06a

Assured Guaranty performance

Stocks performance is always measured in comparision to the market or competitors and related stocks in the same industry. We compared Assured Guaranty against in the following table:
Stock3m6m12m
AGOAssured Guaranty-49.75%-46.84%-47.40%

Assured Guaranty competitors

Unfortunately, we could not find any public company that could be defined as Assured Guaranty competitor. This doesn't mean Assured Guaranty does not have any competitor in the market, it's just we could not detected it.