Aflac stock: buy or sell?

AFL stock price: $48.36 -2.32% At close on August 23rd, 2019

Updated on:
August 23rd, 2019

2

Aflac slipped a tragic -2.32% and closed at $48.36. On Aug/21 AFL collapsed a chilling -5.88%.

Aflac Incorporated, through its subsidiary, American Family Life Assurance Company of Columbus, provides voluntary supplemental health and life insurance products.

Should I buy Aflac stock?

Even if you are a experienced or a novel trader, best trading results come from using an investing strategy that never leaves to random or subjective opinions when is the best moment to buy or sell stocks. Having a trading strategy helps to make decisions easier, quicker and with less hesitations. At Stocks2.com, we use very simple but trusted and powerful trend following trading strategies. Simple things usually work the best.

None of our preferred buy setups matches with Aflac stock situation right now, therefore this is not a suitable entry point.

Buy setupElegible
New all-time highNo
New 52 week highNo
Price crossing up 200d MANo
100d MA crossing up 200d MANo
This is not a selling recommendation at all, just it's not the best moment to buy if you follow any of these trading strategies.

Is Aflac stock a buy?

Everyday, hundreds of stock ratings are published by financial analysts to indicate a particular stock's attractiveness. At Stocks2.com, we collected 10 ratings published for AFL stock in the last month.

Is AFL a good stock to buy?
DateAnalyst / BrokerPrevious ratingCurrent rating
2019-8-23Barclaysn/aEqual Weight
2019-7-29Raymond JamesStrong-BuyOutperform
2019-7-26Morgan Stanleyn/aEqual Weight
2019-7-16Evercore ISIIn-LineUnderperform
2019-6-18Raymond Jamesn/aStrong-Buy
2019-5-22Barclaysn/aEqual Weight
2019-4-30UBS GroupNeutralNeutral
2019-4-30Raymond JamesStrong-BuyStrong-Buy
2019-2-4SunTrust Banksn/aHold
2019-1-2JPMorgan Chase & Co.OverweightNeutral

Aflac stock analysis

Daily outlook

Aflac slipped a tragic -2.32% and closed at $48.36.

Aflac shares slipped -2.32% to $48.36 today. In this session, Aflac stock crossed down the SMA200d line. If you are using SMA200d line as stop loss trigger, double check your position in this stock. On Jul/15, AFL hit new all time highs, pushing higher previous ATH of $56.79 recorded on July/10. New ATHs are usual entry points for many trading setups as there aren't higher resistences.

AFL stock chart (daily)

Weekly outlook

Aflac plummed a hair-raising -7.67% this week.

Price pattern shows an uptrend with two rising tops and bottoms, and now trading upwards to the $56.89 resistance. Not so far away is the last all-time high Aflac marked by mid July. This week, Aflac stock dived below the significant level of the 40-weeks moving average. Trading stocks that are below the 40-weeks (that is, 200-days) moving average line is not recommended by many experts, as it indicates that the stock has not enough institutional support. Since late January when SMA10w and SMA20w crossed up, AFL price gained $1.41 per share (3.00%).

AFL stock chart (weekly)

Aflac stock price history

Aflac stock went public on September 22nd, 1982 with a price of $0.011. Since then, AFL stock grew a 483,500.00%, with a yearly average of 13,430.60%. If you had invested right after AFL's IPO a $1,000 in Aflac stock in 1982, it would worth $4,835,000.00 today.

1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.

Aflac stock historical price chart

AFL stock reached all-time highs on Jul 15th with a price of $56.89.

Aflac stock price target is $53.80

Predicting the price evolution of a stock or any financial instrument in a reliable and repeatable way is probably impossible. However, banks and other financial institutions analysts, with the help of lots of data and algorithms do their best to predict the stock prices movement. The accuracy of these stock price predictions is not very high, and you should not blindly believe and make decisions only based on what this ratings or price target predictions say. For the last 30 days we found 9 price predictions for Aflac stock:
AFL stock price predictions
DateAnalyst / BrokerActionPrevious targetCurrent targetDiff
2019-8-23BarclaysLowers Target$53.00$49.00-7.5%
2019-7-29Raymond JamesDowngradesn/a$62.00-
2019-7-26Morgan StanleyRaises Target$53.00$54.001.9%
2019-6-18Raymond JamesRaises Target$56.00$62.0010.7%
2019-5-22BarclaysRaises Target$45.00$53.0017.8%
2019-4-30UBS GroupLowers Target$50.00$49.00-2%
2019-4-30Raymond JamesRaises Target$55.00$56.001.8%
2019-2-4SunTrust BanksRaises Target$4.20$48.001042.9%
2019-1-2JPMorgan Chase & Co.Downgradesn/a$51.00-
(in average)$45.20$53.8019.0%
The price target for Aflac stock is $53.80, moving in a range between $62.00 and $48.00. In average, analysts' outlook on AFL price forecast is positive, increasing the target by a 19.00% from previous estimations.

Financials and fundamental analysis

Earnings date and Earnings per Share

After posting its last earnings report on April, Aflac stayed constant a tight -0.64%. As soon as we get its actual EPS from the earnings report, we will update this report.
AFL earnings date and EPS evolution
QuarterReporting dateEstimated EPSActual EPSSurprise
2017-Q2-n/a1.8n/a
2017-Q32017-10-251.631.74.3%
2017-Q42018-01-310.780.825.1%
2018-Q12018-04-250.971.058.2%
2018-Q22018-07-260.981.079.2%
2018-Q32018-10-240.991.034.0%
2018-Q42019-01-310.941.028.5%
2019-Q12019-04-251.06n/an/a
2019-Q2-n/an/an/a
2019-Q3-n/an/an/a

Annual financial results

Compared to 2017, last anual sales report draw a neutral move of 0.41% to $21,689.00 million dollars. When comparing 2018 vs 2017, in contrary, profit margin (that is, the net income divided by revenues) eased a -7.85% to 13.46%.

Aflac presents anual results in December, and to evaluate its evolution since then, we estimate annual sales and income figures by adding results from the last 4 quarters. This is called TTM (or Twelve Trailing Months). So, Aflac TTM sales up to March 2019 were $21,883.00 and income $3,130.00 million dollars. When comparing this TTM figures with the last reported annuality, we can review Aflac business evolution since December 2018: Annual turnover up to March, compared to lastest yearly report, stayed constant a slightly good 0.89%. Regarding profit margin, Aflac remained steady 0.84% to 13.46%

AFL annual Sales and Income evolution
YearSalesYoYIncome/(margin)YoY
2013$23,810 M-$3,160 M13.3%-
2014$22,606 M-5.06%$2,951 M13.1%-6.61%
2015$20,845 M-7.79%$2,533 M12.2%-14.16%
2016$22,380 M7.36%$2,659 M11.9%4.97%
2017$21,600 M-3.49%$4,604 M21.3%73.15%
2018$21,689 M0.41%$2,920 M13.5%-36.58%
TTM $21,883 M0.89%$3,130 M14.3%7.19%

Quarterly financial results

Aflac reported $5,640.00 M in revenues for 2019-Q1, a 10.37% up compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter income marked $928.00 million with a profit margin of 16.45%. Profit margin escalated a 6.18% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was 10.27%. When comparing revenues to same quarter last year, Aflac sales marked a beatiful gain and stepped up a 3.52%.
AFL quarterly Sales and Income evolution
QuarterSales1QoQ2Income1/(margin)QoQ2
2017-Q2$5,490 M-$713 M13.0%-
2017-Q3$5,550 M1.09%$716 M12.9%0.42%
2017-Q4$5,407 M-2.58%$2,583 M47.8%260.75%
2018-Q1$5,448 M0.76%$717 M13.2%-72.24%
2018-Q2$5,571 M2.26%$832 M14.9%16.04%
2018-Q3$5,562 M-0.16%$845 M15.2%1.56%
2018-Q4$5,110 M-8.13%$525 M10.3%-37.87%
2019-Q1$5,640 M10.37%$928 M16.5%76.76%

Aflac ownership

When you are planning to invest in a stock, it's worth to overview its ownership structure.

Management staff in all public traded companies that hold equity is required to report every transaction to the SEC. For Aflac, 1.77% of all outstanding shares are owned by its staff.

In case of Aflac stock, 70.52% of its shares are held by institutions (mutual funds, pension funds, big banks and other large financial institutions). Bearish positions for AFL stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.

The following table compares ownership indicators for other stocks related to Aflac:

AFLAAMEAIZCNOPFG
Market cap$36.2 B$52.2 M$7.6 B$2.3 B$14.6 B
Total shares748.9 M20.1 M61.5 M156.0 M278.6 M
Float shares731.0 M5.6 M61.5 M154.0 M277.6 M
  - Institutional holdings (%)70.5%5.2%86.1%97.4%73.9%
  - Insider holdings (%)1.8%80.5%1.0%1.1%0.3%
Shares in short selling0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Aflac summary

Friday, August 23rd, 2019
Open$49.35
Close$48.36
Day range$48.14 - $49.59
Previous close$49.51
Session gain-2.32%
Average true range$1.18
50d mov avg$53.76
100d mov avg$52.12
200d mov avg$49.13
Daily pattern
Weekly pattern lb02a

Aflac performance

Performance as an absolute value is never valid if it's not benchmarked against competitors or related stocks in the industry. We compared Aflac against Atlantic American, Assurant, CNO Financial, Principal Financial and Unum in the following table:
Stock3m6m12m
AFLAflac-6.53%0.23%5.89%
AAMEAtlantic American4.02%-2.63%2.37%
AIZAssurant22.72%26.61%20.46%
CNOCNO Financial-8.32%-11.67%-29.54%
PFGPrincipal Financi...-2.55%0.97%-1.84%
UNMUnum-22.50%-28.82%-24.25%

Aflac competitors

One check before trading any stock is to review a list of its competitors, in this case for Aflac. We chose 5 companies as Aflac competitors as they are in the same industry or have similar market objectives.

Latest Aflac stock news