AFH stock: buy or sell?

AFH stock price: $0.65 -5.80% At close on February 21st, 2020

Updated on:
February 21st, 2020

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After boosting an extraordinary 5.80% yesterday, Atlas Financial closed today at $0.65 and plunged a bloodcurdling -5.80%.

Atlas Financial Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in underwriting commercial automobile insurance policies in the United States.

Should I buy AFH stock?

Make a decision about when to buy or sell stocks is one of the hardest parts of being a trader or investor. Trading strategies are meant for helping you in the decision process of what stocks to choose and when is the best moment to buy them. There are thousands of trading strategies for you to choose, but at Stocks2.com we prefer those that are simple but successful.

Currently, Atlas Financial stock doesn't match any of these trading strategies, so our recommendation is not to buy.

Buy setupElegible
New all-time highNo
New 52 week highNo
Price crossing up 200d MANo
100d MA crossing up 200d MANo
This doesn't mean AFH will slide in coming sessions, or it will not rise higher. Simply, it doesn't match our recommended trading systems.

Is Atlas Financial stock a buy?

Financial institutions and banks publish stock ratings everyday. Unfortunately, we couldn't find any rating for AFH stock for the last month.

AFH stock analysis

Daily outlook

After boosting an extraordinary 5.80% yesterday, Atlas Financial closed today at $0.65 and plunged a bloodcurdling -5.80%.

After boosting an extraordinary 5.80% yesterday, Atlas Financial closed today at $0.65 and plunged a bloodcurdling -5.80%. Since price and SMA200d lines crossed up on Feb/13, AFH climbed $0.17 (35.42%).

AFH stock chart (daily)

Weekly outlook

Atlas Financial shares rocketed 6.56% this week, ending at $0.65. Early February AFH plunged a spooky -24.44% in just one week.

Atlas Financial stock just marked a top under its last top. Athought it's not a big concern right now, investors in AFH should be alerted as this could be a warning for future complications. You should be expectant to Atlas Financial price to not slide under , as this would complicate possible price recovery in the short and mid-term. Since this week when SMA20w and SMA40w crossed up, AFH price gained $0.04 per share (6.56%). Last week AFH price bounced up over the SMA of 40 weeks that acted as support stopping new slides.

AFH stock chart (weekly)

AFH stock price history

AFH IPO was on February 12th, 2013 at $5.85 per share1. Since then, AFH stock lost a -88.90%, with a yearly average of -12.70%.

1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.

AFH stock historical price chart

AFH stock reached 52-week highs on March at $9.34, and all-time highs 2018-01-22 with a price of 21.5.

AFH stock price target

Nobody can reliably foresee how stock prices may evolve in the future. However, many stock price predictions are published every day by banks, financial institutions and independent analysts. The accuracy of these stock price predictions is not very high, and you should not blindly believe and make decisions only based on what this ratings or price target predictions say. For the last 30 days we have not detected any price target for Atlas Financial stock by any trusted analyst.

Financials and fundamental analysis

Earnings date and Earnings per Share

On March, Atlas Financial missed the expectations of the analysts and posted a frightening EPS of $-3.48 per share when experts were expecting $0.42.
AFH earnings date and EPS evolution
QuarterReporting dateEstimated EPSActual EPSSurprise
2016-Q4-n/an/an/a
2017-Q1-n/an/an/a
2017-Q2-n/an/an/a
2017-Q3-n/an/an/a
2017-Q42018-04-02-3.91-5.57n/a
2018-Q12018-05-070.430.5323.3%
2018-Q22018-08-060.420.6145.2%
2018-Q32018-11-050.430.6244.2%
2018-Q42019-03-040.42-3.48n/a
2019-Q1-n/an/an/a

Annual financial results

Compared to 2016, last anual revenues report draw an exceptional increase of 21.75% to $216.21 M USD. On the other hand, its profit margin (compared to revenues) plummed to -17.95%, that is $-38.81 million.

Atlas Financial fiscal year ends in December, and to evaluate its evolution since then, we estimate annual sales and income figures by adding results from the last 4 quarters. This is called TTM (or Twelve Trailing Months). So, Atlas Financial TTM sales up to December 2018 were $166.08 and earnings $16.71 million USD. When comparing this TTM figures with the last reported annuality, we can esteem Atlas Financial business evolution since December 2017: Annual turnover up to December, compared to lastest yearly report, plunged a chilling -23.19%. Regarding profit margin, Atlas Financial boosted 28.01% to -17.95%

AFH annual Sales and Income evolution
YearSalesYoYIncome/(margin)YoY
2012$43 M-$3.17 M7.4%-
2013$74 M73.73%$7.98 M10.7%151.74%
2014$102 M36.69%$18 M17.4%121.83%
2015$157 M54.35%$14 M9.2%-18.48%
2016$178 M13.22%$2.65 M1.5%-81.66%
2017$216 M21.75%$-38.81 M-18.0%-1,566.74%
TTM $166 M-23.19%$17 M10.1%-143.06%

Quarterly financial results

Atlas Financial reported M in revenues for 2018-Q4, a -100.00% less compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter income marked M with a profit margin of . Profit margin remained stable a 0.00% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was 10.26%. When comparing turnover to same quarter last year, Atlas Financial sales marked a hair-raising correction and collapsed a -100.00%. Looking back to recent quarterly results, Atlas Financial posted 4 positive quarters in a row.
AFH quarterly Sales and Income evolution
QuarterSales1QoQ2Income1/(margin)QoQ2
2016-Q4$46 M-$-14 M-29.3%-
2017-Q1$50 M7.60%$5 M9.7%-135.77%
2017-Q2$56 M11.80%$6 M9.9%13.61%
2017-Q3$57 M3.17%$5 M8.9%-6.99%
2017-Q4$58 M0.12%$-54 M-94.4%-1,159.45%
2018-Q1$56 M-2.57%$6 M9.9%-110.18%
2018-Q2$55 M-1.21%$6 M10.1%0.85%
2018-Q3$55 M-1.31%$6 M10.3%0.52%

Atlas Financial ownership

When you are planning to buy shares of a stock, it's always worth to review its ownership structure.

Management staff in all public traded companies that hold equity is required to report every transaction to the SEC. For Atlas Financial, 10.44% of all outstanding shares are owned by its staff.

In case of Atlas Financial stock, 17.64% of its shares are held by institutions (mutual funds, pension funds, big banks and other large financial institutions). Bearish positions for AFH stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.

The following table compares ownership indicators for other stocks related to Atlas Financial:

AFH
Market cap$7.8 M
Total shares11.9 M
Float shares10.2 M
  - Institutional holdings (%)17.6%
  - Insider holdings (%)10.4%
Shares in short selling0.0%

AFH summary

Friday, February 21st, 2020
Open$0.66
Close$0.65
Day range$0.62 - $0.68
Previous close$0.69
Session gain-5.80%
Average true range$0.09
50d mov avg$0.52
100d mov avg$0.53
200d mov avg$0.56
Daily patternlt01a
Weekly pattern lt01a

Atlas Financial performance

To better understand Atlas Financial performance you must compare its gains with other related stocks in same sector or industry. We compared Atlas Financial against in the following table:
Stock3m6m12m
AFHAtlas Financial25.00%75.68%-92.50%

Atlas Financial competitors

Unfortunately, we could not find any public company that could be defined as Atlas Financial competitor. This doesn't mean Atlas Financial does not have any competitor in the market, it's just we could not detected it.