ACGL stock: buy or sell?
November 19th, 2019
Arch Capital Group Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides property, casualty, and mortgage insurance and reinsurance products worldwide.
Should I buy ACGL stock?Trading stocks requires experience and discipline, and your buying and selling decisions must come following a methodology. That's why is so important to choose your own trading strategy that matches with your character as inversor. At Stocks2.com, we like to use very simple but trusted and powerful trend following trading strategies. Simple things usually work the best.
None of our preferred buy setups matches with Arch Capital stock situation right now, therefore this is not a suitable entry point.
|New all-time high||No|
|New 52 week high||No|
|Price crossing up 200d MA||No|
|100d MA crossing up 200d MA||No|
Is Arch Capital stock a buy?
Financial institutions and banks publish stock ratings everyday.At Stocks2.com, we gathered 7 ratings published for ACGL stock in the last 30 days. The general sentiment of these ratings is bullish for ACGL stock, with 3 positive ratings.
|Date||Analyst / Broker||Previous rating||Current rating|
ACGL stock analysis
After breaking up the SMA line of 50d yesterday, Arch Capital shares closed today at $41.50.
After breaking up the simple moving average line of 50d yesterday, Arch Capital closed at $41.50. On September, ACGL hit a new all time high, pushing higher than on September tops. Check different trading setups that use ATHs as triggers.
Arch Capital raised a good 2.14% this week.
Price pattern shows an uptrend with two rising tops and bottoms, and now trading upwards to the $42.86 resistance. Not so far away is the last all-time high Arch Capital marked late September. Since mid March when SMA20w and SMA40w crossed up, ACGL price gained $9.39 per share (29.24%). Since price and SMA40w lines crossed up by mid January, ACGL climbed $14.82 (55.55%).
ACGL stock price history
ACGL IPO was on September 14th, 1995 at $2.28 per share1. Since then, ACGL stock grew a 1,720.20%, with an average of 71.70% per year. If you had invested $1,000 in ACGL stock in 1995, it would worth $17,202.00 today.
1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.
ACGL stock historical price chart
ACGL stock reached all-time highs on September with a price of $42.86.
ACGL stock price target is $39.10Nobody can reliably foresee how stock prices may evolve in the future. However, many stock price predictions are published every day by banks, financial institutions and independent analysts. The accuracy of these stock price predictions is not very high, and you should not blindly believe and make decisions only based on what this ratings or price target predictions say. For the last 30 days we found 7 price targets for ACGL stock:
|Date||Analyst / Broker||Action||Previous target||Current target||Diff|
|2019-9-12||Buckingham Research||Raises Target||$38.00||$40.00||5.3%|
|2019-8-29||UBS Group||Raises Target||$39.00||$45.00||15.4%|
|2019-7-30||MKM Partners||Raises Target||$40.00||$45.00||12.5%|
|2019-5-17||Morgan Stanley||Set Price Target||n/a||$32.00||-|
Financials and fundamental analysis
Earnings date and Earnings per ShareOn February, Arch Capital presented its financial report, posting a super good climb for the Earnings per Share (EPS). Experts were expecting $0.37 per share, but Arch Capital posted $0.46.
|Quarter||Reporting date||Estimated EPS||Actual EPS||Surprise|
Annual financial resultsCompared to 2017, last anual sales report draw a slightly good gain of 1.96% to $5,474.33 million dollars. When comparing 2018 vs 2017, aligned with this, profit margin (that is, the net income divided by revenues) gained a 2.31% to 13.85%.
|2013||$3,460 M||-||$710 M20.5%||-|
|2014||$4,053 M||17.13%||$834 M20.6%||17.56%|
|2015||$3,977 M||-1.86%||$538 M13.5%||-35.55%|
|2016||$4,452 M||11.93%||$693 M15.6%||28.82%|
|2017||$5,369 M||20.61%||$619 M11.5%||-10.60%|
|2018||$5,474 M||1.96%||$758 M13.8%||22.40%|
Quarterly financial resultsArch Capital posted $1,383.48 M in revenues for 2018-Q4, a -1.08% decline compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter income marked $136.49 million with a profit margin of 9.87%. Profit margin fell a -6.39% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was 16.26%. When comparing turnover to same quarter last year, Arch Capital sales marked a tiny growth and inched a 1.58%. Looking back to recent quarterly results, Arch Capital posted 2 negative quarters in a row.
|2017-Q2||$1,360 M||-||$185 M13.6%||-|
|2017-Q3||$1,420 M||4.44%||$-34 M-2.4%||-118.18%|
|2017-Q4||$1,362 M||-4.12%||$215 M15.8%||-737.75%|
|2018-Q1||$1,236 M||-9.23%||$150 M12.2%||-29.92%|
|2018-Q2||$1,456 M||17.79%||$244 M16.7%||61.97%|
|2018-Q3||$1,399 M||-3.94%||$227 M16.3%||-6.66%|
|2018-Q4||$1,383 M||-1.08%||$136 M9.9%||-39.98%|
|2019-Q1||$1,680 M||21.40%||$449 M26.7%||228.61%|
Arch Capital ownershipWhen you are planning to invest in a company, it's worth to overview its ownership structure.
Arch Capital shares owned by insiders (that is, founders, CEO, CTO, main executives or other management staff) currently counts a 3.05% of all shares.
Bearish positions for ACGL stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.
The following table compares ownership indicators for other stocks related to Arch Capital:
|Market cap||$16.8 B||$4.9 B||$69.3 B||$15.5 B||$10.9 B|
|Total shares||405.2 M||84.0 M||453.2 M||13.8 M||40.8 M|
|Float shares||356.7 M||82.0 M||450.0 M||13.5 M||30.4 M|
|- Institutional holdings (%)||90.9%||92.5%||90.5%||78.1%||98.5%|
|- Insider holdings (%)||3.0%||2.5%||0.6%||2.6%||25.6%|
|Shares in short selling||0.0%||0.0%||0.0%||0.0%||0.0%|
|Tuesday, November 19th, 2019|
|Day range||$41.18 - $41.82|
|Average true range||$0.68|
|50d mov avg||$41.26|
|100d mov avg||$40.09|
|200d mov avg||$36.72|
Arch Capital performanceTo better understand Arch Capital performance you must compare its gains with other related stocks in same sector or industry. In the following table, we compare Arch Capital performance to Axis Capital, Chubb, Markel, Everest Re and W.R. Berkley:
Arch Capital competitorsOne check before investing in any stock is to review a list of its competitors, in this case for Arch Capital. We picked 5 companies as Arch Capital competitors as they are in the same industry or have similar market objectives.
Latest ACGL stock news
- InvestorPlaceArch Capital Keeps Surging Into EarningsJuly 10, 2019
- Seeking AlphaMarket Skepticism On Mortgage Insurance Still Offering Some Upside In Arch CapitalDecember 7, 2018
- Seeking AlphaArch Capital Reports Another Good, Balanced QuarterAugust 7, 2018
- Seeking AlphaArch Capital Sticking To Its Guns, But The Street's UnimpressedJuly 3, 2018