ACGL stock: buy or sell?

ACGL stock price: $41.50 0.34% At close on November 19th, 2019

Updated on:
November 19th, 2019

4

After breaking up the SMA line of 50 days yesterday, Arch Capital shares closed at $41.50.

Arch Capital Group Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides property, casualty, and mortgage insurance and reinsurance products worldwide.

Should I buy ACGL stock?

Trading stocks requires experience and discipline, and your buying and selling decisions must come following a methodology. That's why is so important to choose your own trading strategy that matches with your character as inversor. At Stocks2.com, we like to use very simple but trusted and powerful trend following trading strategies. Simple things usually work the best.

None of our preferred buy setups matches with Arch Capital stock situation right now, therefore this is not a suitable entry point.

Buy setupElegible
New all-time highNo
New 52 week highNo
Price crossing up 200d MANo
100d MA crossing up 200d MANo
This is not a selling recommendation at all, just it's not the best moment to buy if you follow any of these trading strategies.

Is Arch Capital stock a buy?

Financial institutions and banks publish stock ratings everyday. At Stocks2.com, we gathered 7 ratings published for ACGL stock in the last 30 days.

The general sentiment of these ratings is bullish for ACGL stock, with 3 positive ratings.
Is ACGL a good stock to buy?
DateAnalyst / BrokerPrevious ratingCurrent rating
2019-9-12Buckingham Researchn/aNeutral
2019-8-29UBS Groupn/aBuy
2019-7-30MKM Partnersn/aBuy
2019-7-19Buckingham ResearchBuyNeutral
2019-7-1Barclaysn/aOverweight
2019-5-17Morgan Stanleyn/aHold
2019-5-17Morgan Stanleyn/aHold

ACGL stock analysis

Daily outlook

After breaking up the SMA line of 50d yesterday, Arch Capital shares closed today at $41.50.

After breaking up the simple moving average line of 50d yesterday, Arch Capital closed at $41.50. On September, ACGL hit a new all time high, pushing higher than on September tops. Check different trading setups that use ATHs as triggers.

ACGL stock chart (daily)

Weekly outlook

Arch Capital raised a good 2.14% this week.

Price pattern shows an uptrend with two rising tops and bottoms, and now trading upwards to the $42.86 resistance. Not so far away is the last all-time high Arch Capital marked late September. Since mid March when SMA20w and SMA40w crossed up, ACGL price gained $9.39 per share (29.24%). Since price and SMA40w lines crossed up by mid January, ACGL climbed $14.82 (55.55%).

ACGL stock chart (weekly)

ACGL stock price history

ACGL IPO was on September 14th, 1995 at $2.28 per share1. Since then, ACGL stock grew a 1,720.20%, with an average of 71.70% per year. If you had invested $1,000 in ACGL stock in 1995, it would worth $17,202.00 today.

1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.

ACGL stock historical price chart

ACGL stock reached all-time highs on September with a price of $42.86.

ACGL stock price target is $39.10

Nobody can reliably foresee how stock prices may evolve in the future. However, many stock price predictions are published every day by banks, financial institutions and independent analysts. The accuracy of these stock price predictions is not very high, and you should not blindly believe and make decisions only based on what this ratings or price target predictions say. For the last 30 days we found 7 price targets for ACGL stock:
ACGL stock price predictions
DateAnalyst / BrokerActionPrevious targetCurrent targetDiff
2019-9-12Buckingham ResearchRaises Target$38.00$40.005.3%
2019-8-29UBS GroupRaises Target$39.00$45.0015.4%
2019-7-30MKM PartnersRaises Target$40.00$45.0012.5%
2019-7-19Buckingham ResearchDowngradesn/a$38.00-
2019-7-1BarclaysRaises Target$39.00$42.007.7%
2019-5-17Morgan StanleySet Price Targetn/a$32.00-
2019-5-17Morgan StanleyReiteratesn/a$32.00-
(in average)$39.00$39.100.0%
Moving in a range from $45.00 and $32.00, the price prediction for ACGL stock is $39.10. In average, analysts' outlook on ACGL price forecast is stable from previous estimations.

Financials and fundamental analysis

Earnings date and Earnings per Share

On February, Arch Capital presented its financial report, posting a super good climb for the Earnings per Share (EPS). Experts were expecting $0.37 per share, but Arch Capital posted $0.46.
ACGL earnings date and EPS evolution
QuarterReporting dateEstimated EPSActual EPSSurprise
2017-Q2-n/a1.26n/a
2017-Q32017-10-25-0.61-0.79n/a
2017-Q42018-02-121.111.3420.7%
2018-Q12018-05-010.520.567.7%
2018-Q22018-07-310.520.5913.5%
2018-Q32018-10-300.520.5913.5%
2018-Q42019-02-120.370.4624.3%
2019-Q1-n/an/an/a
2019-Q2-n/an/an/a
2019-Q3-n/an/an/a

Annual financial results

Compared to 2017, last anual sales report draw a slightly good gain of 1.96% to $5,474.33 million dollars. When comparing 2018 vs 2017, aligned with this, profit margin (that is, the net income divided by revenues) gained a 2.31% to 13.85%.

ACGL annual Sales and Income evolution
YearSalesYoYIncome/(margin)YoY
2013$3,460 M-$710 M20.5%-
2014$4,053 M17.13%$834 M20.6%17.56%
2015$3,977 M-1.86%$538 M13.5%-35.55%
2016$4,452 M11.93%$693 M15.6%28.82%
2017$5,369 M20.61%$619 M11.5%-10.60%
2018$5,474 M1.96%$758 M13.8%22.40%

Quarterly financial results

Arch Capital posted $1,383.48 M in revenues for 2018-Q4, a -1.08% decline compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter income marked $136.49 million with a profit margin of 9.87%. Profit margin fell a -6.39% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was 16.26%. When comparing turnover to same quarter last year, Arch Capital sales marked a tiny growth and inched a 1.58%. Looking back to recent quarterly results, Arch Capital posted 2 negative quarters in a row.
ACGL quarterly Sales and Income evolution
QuarterSales1QoQ2Income1/(margin)QoQ2
2017-Q2$1,360 M-$185 M13.6%-
2017-Q3$1,420 M4.44%$-34 M-2.4%-118.18%
2017-Q4$1,362 M-4.12%$215 M15.8%-737.75%
2018-Q1$1,236 M-9.23%$150 M12.2%-29.92%
2018-Q2$1,456 M17.79%$244 M16.7%61.97%
2018-Q3$1,399 M-3.94%$227 M16.3%-6.66%
2018-Q4$1,383 M-1.08%$136 M9.9%-39.98%
2019-Q1$1,680 M21.40%$449 M26.7%228.61%

Arch Capital ownership

When you are planning to invest in a company, it's worth to overview its ownership structure.

Arch Capital shares owned by insiders (that is, founders, CEO, CTO, main executives or other management staff) currently counts a 3.05% of all shares.

Bearish positions for ACGL stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.

The following table compares ownership indicators for other stocks related to Arch Capital:

ACGLAXSCBMKLRE
Market cap$16.8 B$4.9 B$69.3 B$15.5 B$10.9 B
Total shares405.2 M84.0 M453.2 M13.8 M40.8 M
Float shares356.7 M82.0 M450.0 M13.5 M30.4 M
  - Institutional holdings (%)90.9%92.5%90.5%78.1%98.5%
  - Insider holdings (%)3.0%2.5%0.6%2.6%25.6%
Shares in short selling0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

ACGL summary

Tuesday, November 19th, 2019
Open$41.40
Close$41.50
Day range$41.18 - $41.82
Previous close$41.36
Session gain0.34%
Average true range$0.68
50d mov avg$41.26
100d mov avg$40.09
200d mov avg$36.72
Daily pattern
Weekly pattern lb02a

Arch Capital performance

To better understand Arch Capital performance you must compare its gains with other related stocks in same sector or industry. In the following table, we compare Arch Capital performance to Axis Capital, Chubb, Markel, Everest Re and W.R. Berkley:
Stock3m6m12m
ACGLArch Capital7.49%20.64%48.21%
AXSAxis Capital-7.99%-1.33%12.21%
CBChubb0.20%4.14%18.84%
MKLMarkel0.17%6.26%3.54%
REEverest Re9.86%8.26%27.90%
WRBW.R. Berkley-2.30%12.43%35.55%

Arch Capital competitors

One check before investing in any stock is to review a list of its competitors, in this case for Arch Capital. We picked 5 companies as Arch Capital competitors as they are in the same industry or have similar market objectives.

Latest ACGL stock news