ACGL stock: buy or sell?

ACGL stock price: $26.32 1.15% At close on April 2nd, 2020

Updated on:
April 2nd, 2020

1

After sliding a frightening -9.38% yesterday, Arch Capital closed today at $26.32 and raised a fine 1.15%. On Mar 26th ACGL rocketed an astounding 13.31%.

Arch Capital Group Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides property, casualty, and mortgage insurance and reinsurance products worldwide.

Should I buy ACGL stock?

Trading stocks requires experience and discipline, and your buying and selling decisions must come following a methodology. Trading strategies are meant for helping you in the decision process of what stocks to choose and when is the best time to buy them. There are thousands of trading strategies for you to choose, but at Stocks2.com we prefer those that are simple but successful.

Currently, Arch Capital stock doesn't match any of these trading strategies, so our recommendation is not to buy.

Buy setupElegible
New all-time highNo
New 52 week highNo
Price crossing up 200d MANo
100d MA crossing up 200d MANo
This doesn't mean ACGL will fall in coming sessions, or it will not rise higher. Simply, it doesn't match our recommended trading systems.

Is Arch Capital stock a buy?

Banks and financial institutions post stock ratings everyday. Unfortunately, we couldn't find any rating for ACGL stock for the last 30 days.

ACGL stock analysis

Daily outlook

After sliding a frightening -9.38% yesterday, Arch Capital closed today at $26.32 and raised a fine 1.15%.

After sliding a frightening -9.38% yesterday, Arch Capital closed today at $26.32 and raised a fine 1.15%. Since price and SMA200d lines crossed down on Mar/6, ACGL fell $-14.85 per share (-36.07%). ACGL is soaring again after a 16.65% correction from its last top on Monday at $30.63. On February/19, ACGL hit new all time highs, pushing higher previous ATH of $47.98 recorded on February. New ATHs are usual entry points for many trading setups as there aren't higher resistences.

ACGL stock chart (daily)

Weekly outlook

After boosting an extraordinary 10.66% in a week last week, Arch Capital closed this week at $26.32 and collapsed a dreadful -9.46%.

Not so far away is the last all-time high Arch Capital marked by mid February, but since then it dropped a 45.53%. Since price and 40-weeks moving average lines crossed down late February, ACGL fell $-20.80 per share (-44.14%). Trading stocks that are under the 40-weeks (that is, 200-days) moving average mark is not recommended by many experts, as it indicates that the stock has not enough institutional support.

ACGL stock chart (weekly)

ACGL stock price history

ACGL stock went public on September 14th, 1995 with a price of $2.281. Since then, ACGL stock surged a 1,054.40%, with a yearly average of 43.90%. If you had invested right after ACGL's IPO a $1,000 in ACGL stock in 1995, it would worth $10,544.00 today.

1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.

ACGL stock historical price chart

ACGL stock reached all-time highs on Feb 19th with a price of $48.32.

ACGL stock price target

Nobody can reliably foresee how stock prices may evolve in the future. However, banks and other financial institutions analysts, with the help of lots of data and algorithms do their best to predict the stock prices movement. We do not recommend to follow these stock price predictions without a critical thinking from your side, as their accuracy is usually low. For the last month we have not found any price target for Arch Capital stock by any trusted analyst.

Financials and fundamental analysis

Earnings date and Earnings per Share

Arch Capital presented exceptional results for 2018-Q4 . Arch Capital boosted Earnings per Share (EPS) by 24.30%, beating analysts estimates of $0.37. Arch Capital posted $0.46.
ACGL earnings date and EPS evolution
QuarterReporting dateEstimated EPSActual EPSSurprise
2017-Q2-n/a1.26n/a
2017-Q32017-10-25-0.61-0.79n/a
2017-Q42018-02-121.111.3420.7%
2018-Q12018-05-010.520.567.7%
2018-Q22018-07-310.520.5913.5%
2018-Q32018-10-300.520.5913.5%
2018-Q42019-02-120.370.4624.3%
2019-Q1-n/an/an/a
2019-Q2-n/an/an/a
2019-Q3-n/an/an/a

Annual financial results

In 2018, Arch Capital annual sales raised a slightly good 1.96% to $5,474.33 million USD from $5,369.31 marked in 2017. When comparing 2018 vs 2017, aligned with this, profit margin (that is, the net income divided by revenues) appreciated a 2.31% to 13.85%.

ACGL annual Sales and Income evolution
YearSalesYoYIncome/(margin)YoY
2013$3,460 M-$710 M20.5%-
2014$4,053 M17.13%$834 M20.6%17.56%
2015$3,977 M-1.86%$538 M13.5%-35.55%
2016$4,452 M11.93%$693 M15.6%28.82%
2017$5,369 M20.61%$619 M11.5%-10.60%
2018$5,474 M1.96%$758 M13.8%22.40%

Quarterly financial results

Arch Capital posted $1,383.48 M in revenues for 2018-Q4, a -1.08% decline compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter earnings marked $136.49 M with a profit margin of 9.87%. Profit margin slipped a -6.39% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was 16.26%. When comparing turnover to same quarter last year, Arch Capital sales marked a tiny increase and stepped up a 1.58%. Looking back to recent quarterly results, Arch Capital posted 2 negative quarters in a row.
ACGL quarterly Sales and Income evolution
QuarterSales1QoQ2Income1/(margin)QoQ2
2017-Q2$1,360 M-$185 M13.6%-
2017-Q3$1,420 M4.44%$-34 M-2.4%-118.18%
2017-Q4$1,362 M-4.12%$215 M15.8%-737.75%
2018-Q1$1,236 M-9.23%$150 M12.2%-29.92%
2018-Q2$1,456 M17.79%$244 M16.7%61.97%
2018-Q3$1,399 M-3.94%$227 M16.3%-6.66%
2018-Q4$1,383 M-1.08%$136 M9.9%-39.98%
2019-Q1$1,680 M21.40%$449 M26.7%228.61%

Arch Capital ownership

When you are planning to buy shares of a company, it's worth to have a look its ownership structure.

Management staff in all public traded companies that hold equity is required to report every transaction to the SEC. For Arch Capital, 3.49% of all outstanding shares are owned by its staff.

Bearish positions for ACGL stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.

For a better context understanding, the next table shows ownership data compared to other related stocks:

ACGL
Market cap$10.7 B
Total shares405.6 M
Float shares393.4 M
  - Institutional holdings (%)89.9%
  - Insider holdings (%)3.5%
Shares in short selling0.0%

ACGL summary

Thursday, April 2nd, 2020
Open$25.67
Close$26.32
Day range$25.67 - $27.20
Previous close$26.02
Session gain1.15%
Average true range$3.05
50d mov avg$39.00
100d mov avg$40.61
200d mov avg$40.17
Daily patternlb01a
Weekly pattern

Arch Capital performance

To better understand Arch Capital performance you must becnhmark its gains with other related stocks in same sector or industry. In the following table, we compare Arch Capital performance to :
Stock3m6m12m
ACGLArch Capital-39.28%-37.12%-19.24%

Arch Capital competitors

Unfortunately, we could not find any public company that could be defined as Arch Capital competitor. This doesn't mean Arch Capital does not have any competitor in the market, it's just we could not detected it.

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