ACGL stock: buy or sell?

ACGL stock price: $47.12 -1.63% At close on February 21st, 2020

Updated on:
February 21st, 2020

5

Arch Capital declined -1.63% to $47.12 after marking all time highs on Wednesday.

Arch Capital Group Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides property, casualty, and mortgage insurance and reinsurance products worldwide.

Should I buy ACGL stock?

Trading stocks requires experience and discipline, and your buying and selling decisions must come following a methodology. That's why is so important to choose your own trading plan that fits your character as inversor. At Stocks2.com, we use very simple but trusted and powerful trend following trading strategies. Simple things usually work the best.

These 2 buy setups are elegible for Arch Capital stock now:

Buy setupElegible
New all-time highYes
New 52 week highYes
Price crossing up 200d MANo
100d MA crossing up 200d MANo

Is Arch Capital stock a buy?

Everyday, hundreds of stock ratings are published by financial analysts to indicate a particular stock's attractiveness. Unfortunately, we couldn't detect any rating for ACGL stock for the last month.

ACGL stock analysis

Daily outlook

Arch Capital declined -1.63% to $47.12 after topping to all time highs on Wednesday.

After several days of continuous rises in past weeks, Arch Capital declined -1.63% to $47.12. From a daily perspective, ACGL is in a short term uptrend after plotting its last bottom ($43.55, on January/30) higher than the previous bottom, and its last top ($48.32, on Wednesday) also over the previous top. Now trading in between its last bottom and last top ACGL might consolidate in a plain range, waiting to break out over $48.32 or down under $43.55. On Wednesday, ACGL hit new all time highs, pushing higher previous ATH of $47.98 recorded on February 14th. New ATHs are usual entry points for many trading setups as there aren't higher resistences. Since December when ACGL stock price broke up the SMA50d line, it gained $6.10 (14.87%).

ACGL stock chart (daily)

Weekly outlook

Arch Capital closed this week at $47.12 after topping to a new all time high ($48.32) even it couldn't close with gains and depreciated an ugly -1.17%.

Price pattern shows an uptrend with two rising tops and bottoms, and now finally trading above the $42.86 resistance. By mid March 2019, SMA20w and SMA40w crossed up triggering a rise of 46.75%. Since early December 2019 when ACGL stock price broke up the SMA10w line, it gained $5.96 (14.48%).

ACGL stock chart (weekly)

ACGL stock price history

ACGL IPO was on September 14th, 1995 at $2.28 per share1. Since then, ACGL stock surged a 1,966.70%, with an average of 81.90% per year. If you had invested right after ACGL's IPO a $1,000 in ACGL stock in 1995, it would worth $19,667.00 today.

1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.

ACGL stock historical price chart

ACGL stock reached all-time highs on Wednesday with a price of $48.32.

ACGL stock price target

How much a stock will be priced tomorrow or next week is quite unpredictable However, many stock price predictions are published every day by banks, financial institutions and independent analysts. The accuracy of these stock price predictions is not very high, and you should not blindly believe and make decisions only based on what this ratings or price target predictions say. For the last 30 days we have not detected any price prediction for Arch Capital stock by any trusted analyst.

Financials and fundamental analysis

Earnings date and Earnings per Share

Arch Capital reported dazzling results for 2018-Q4 . Arch Capital skyrocketed Earnings per Share (EPS) by 24.30%, beating experts consensus of $0.37. Arch Capital posted $0.46.
ACGL earnings date and EPS evolution
QuarterReporting dateEstimated EPSActual EPSSurprise
2017-Q2-n/a1.26n/a
2017-Q32017-10-25-0.61-0.79n/a
2017-Q42018-02-121.111.3420.7%
2018-Q12018-05-010.520.567.7%
2018-Q22018-07-310.520.5913.5%
2018-Q32018-10-300.520.5913.5%
2018-Q42019-02-120.370.4624.3%
2019-Q1-n/an/an/a
2019-Q2-n/an/an/a
2019-Q3-n/an/an/a

Annual financial results

In 2018, Arch Capital annual turnover gained a tiny 1.96% to $5,474.33 M USD from $5,369.31 marked in 2017. When comparing 2018 vs 2017, likewise, profit margin (that is, the net income divided by revenues) appreciated a 2.31% to 13.85%.

ACGL annual Sales and Income evolution
YearSalesYoYIncome/(margin)YoY
2013$3,460 M-$710 M20.5%-
2014$4,053 M17.13%$834 M20.6%17.56%
2015$3,977 M-1.86%$538 M13.5%-35.55%
2016$4,452 M11.93%$693 M15.6%28.82%
2017$5,369 M20.61%$619 M11.5%-10.60%
2018$5,474 M1.96%$758 M13.8%22.40%

Quarterly financial results

Arch Capital reported $1,383.48 million in revenues for 2018-Q4, a -1.08% less compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter earnings marked $136.49 million with a profit margin of 9.87%. Profit margin slipped a -6.39% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was 16.26%. When comparing revenues to same quarter last year, Arch Capital sales marked a slightly good growth and raised a 1.58%. Looking back to recent quarterly results, Arch Capital posted 2 positive quarters in a row.
ACGL quarterly Sales and Income evolution
QuarterSales1QoQ2Income1/(margin)QoQ2
2017-Q2$1,360 M-$185 M13.6%-
2017-Q3$1,420 M4.44%$-34 M-2.4%-118.18%
2017-Q4$1,362 M-4.12%$215 M15.8%-737.75%
2018-Q1$1,236 M-9.23%$150 M12.2%-29.92%
2018-Q2$1,456 M17.79%$244 M16.7%61.97%
2018-Q3$1,399 M-3.94%$227 M16.3%-6.66%
2018-Q4$1,383 M-1.08%$136 M9.9%-39.98%
2019-Q1$1,680 M21.40%$449 M26.7%228.61%

Arch Capital ownership

When you are planning to invest in shares of a company, it's always worth to have a look its ownership structure.

Management staff in all public traded companies that hold equity is required to report every transaction to the SEC. For Arch Capital, 3.48% of all outstanding shares are owned by its staff.

Bearish positions for ACGL stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.

For a better understanding, the following table shows ownership data compared to other related stocks:

ACGL
Market cap$19.1 B
Total shares405.6 M
Float shares391.8 M
  - Institutional holdings (%)90.8%
  - Insider holdings (%)3.5%
Shares in short selling0.0%

ACGL summary

Friday, February 21st, 2020
Open$47.80
Close$47.12
Day range$47.01 - $47.99
Previous close$47.90
Session gain-1.63%
Average true range$0.85
50d mov avg$44.30
100d mov avg$42.80
200d mov avg$40.27
Daily patternlt06a
Weekly pattern lb02c

Arch Capital performance

Stocks performance is always measured in comparision to the market or competitors and related stocks in the same industry. In the following table, we compare Arch Capital to :
Stock3m6m12m
ACGLArch Capital15.38%22.04%45.88%

Arch Capital competitors

Unfortunately, we could not find any public company that could be defined as Arch Capital competitor. This doesn't mean Arch Capital does not have any competitor in the market, it's just we could not detected it.

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