ACGL stock: buy or sell?

ACGL stock price: $38.61 -2.43% At close on August 23rd, 2019

Updated on:
August 23rd, 2019

5

Arch Capital dropped -2.43% today to $38.61 after reaching all time highs on Monday.

Arch Capital Group Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides property, casualty, and mortgage insurance and reinsurance products worldwide.

Should I buy ACGL stock?

You can't be a successful trader if you don't follow a methodolgy or system that assist you in choosing companies and the correct market timing. That's why is so important to choose your own trading strategy that fits your character as inversor. There are thousands of trading strategies for you to choose, but at Stocks2.com we prefer those that are simple but successful.

Currently, 2 buy setups match with Arch Capital stock now:

Buy setupElegible
New all-time highYes
New 52 week highYes
Price crossing up 200d MANo
100d MA crossing up 200d MANo

Is Arch Capital stock a buy?

Everyday, hundreds of stock ratings are published by financial analysts to indicate a particular stock's attractiveness. At Stocks2.com, we gathered 6 ratings published for ACGL stock in the last month.

The general sentiment of these ratings is bullish for ACGL stock, with 3 positive ratings.
Is ACGL a good stock to buy?
DateAnalyst / BrokerPrevious ratingCurrent rating
2019-7-30MKM Partnersn/aBuy
2019-7-19Buckingham ResearchBuyNeutral
2019-7-1Barclaysn/aOverweight
2019-5-17Morgan Stanleyn/aHold
2019-5-17Morgan Stanleyn/aHold
2019-1-9BarclaysEqual WeightOverweight

ACGL stock analysis

Daily outlook

Arch Capital dropped -2.43% today to $38.61 after marking all time highs on Monday.

Arch Capital dropped -2.43% to $38.61 after reaching all time highs on Monday. On Monday, ACGL hit new all time highs, pushing higher previous ATH of $40.07 recorded on August/8. New ATHs are usual entry points for many trading setups as there aren't higher resistences. On April ACGL price bounced up over the SMA of 50 days demonstrating to be a significant support for this stock.

ACGL stock chart (daily)

Weekly outlook

Arch Capital shares reached new all time highs back again this week, marking to $40.20. Shares closed at $38.61 and slipped -2.87% during the week. After 4 weeks soaring, this week declined a -2.89%.

Arch Capital stock is trading in the range of its last top and last bottom. Loosing would mean breaking the current uptrend. Breakdowns under last bottom are selling point signals for some trading strategies. By mid March, SMA20w and SMA40w crossed up triggering a rise of 20.24%. Since mid January when ACGL stock price broke up the SMA40w line, it gained $11.93 (44.72%).

ACGL stock chart (weekly)

ACGL stock price history

ACGL stock went public on September 14th, 1995 with a price of $2.281. Since then, ACGL stock grew a 1,593.40%, with an average of 69.30% per year. If you had invested right after ACGL's IPO a $1,000 in ACGL stock in 1995, it would worth $15,934.00 today.

1: Adjusted price after possible price splits or reverse-splits.

ACGL stock historical price chart

ACGL stock reached all-time highs on Monday with a price of $40.20.

ACGL stock price target is $36.80

Nobody can reliably foresee how stock prices may evolve in the future. However, financial institutions invest time and resources to provide the most accurated estimations to help investors to make their decisions. You should not follow the analysts' ACGL stock price predictions in the hope that they will be met as they may be wrong and not met. We have 6 price targets for Arch Capital stock published in the last 30 days:
ACGL stock price predictions
DateAnalyst / BrokerActionPrevious targetCurrent targetDiff
2019-7-30MKM PartnersRaises Target$40.00$45.0012.5%
2019-7-19Buckingham ResearchDowngradesn/a$38.00-
2019-7-1BarclaysRaises Target$39.00$42.007.7%
2019-5-17Morgan StanleySet Price Targetn/a$32.00-
2019-5-17Morgan StanleyReiteratesn/a$32.00-
2019-1-9BarclaysUpgrades$29.00$32.0010.3%
(in average)$36.00$36.802.0%
Moving in a range from $45.00 and $32.00, the price target for Arch Capital stock is $36.80.

Financials and fundamental analysis

Earnings date and Earnings per Share

Arch Capital reported dazzling results for 2018-Q4 on February. Arch Capital boosted Earnings per Share (EPS) by 24.30%, beating experts consensus of $0.37. Arch Capital posted $0.46.
ACGL earnings date and EPS evolution
QuarterReporting dateEstimated EPSActual EPSSurprise
2017-Q2-n/a1.26n/a
2017-Q32017-10-25-0.61-0.79n/a
2017-Q42018-02-121.111.3420.7%
2018-Q12018-05-010.520.567.7%
2018-Q22018-07-310.520.5913.5%
2018-Q32018-10-300.520.5913.5%
2018-Q42019-02-120.370.4624.3%
2019-Q1-n/an/an/a
2019-Q2-n/an/an/a
2019-Q3-n/an/an/a

Annual financial results

Compared to 2017, last anual turnover report draw a slightly fine gain of 1.96% to $5,474.33 M dollars. When comparing 2018 vs 2017, aligned with this, profit margin (that is, the net income divided by revenues) inched a 2.31% to 13.85%.

ACGL annual Sales and Income evolution
YearSalesYoYIncome/(margin)YoY
2013$3,460 M-$710 M20.5%-
2014$4,053 M17.13%$834 M20.6%17.56%
2015$3,977 M-1.86%$538 M13.5%-35.55%
2016$4,452 M11.93%$693 M15.6%28.82%
2017$5,369 M20.61%$619 M11.5%-10.60%
2018$5,474 M1.96%$758 M13.8%22.40%

Quarterly financial results

Arch Capital reported $1,383.48 M in sales for 2018-Q4, a -1.08% less compared to previous quarter. Reported quarter income marked $136.49 M with a profit margin of 9.87%. Profit margin slipped a -6.39% compared to previous quarter when profit margin was 16.26%. When comparing turnover to same quarter last year, Arch Capital sales marked a tiny increase and grew a 1.58%. Looking back to recent quarterly results, Arch Capital posted 2 negative quarters in a row.
ACGL quarterly Sales and Income evolution
QuarterSales1QoQ2Income1/(margin)QoQ2
2017-Q2$1,360 M-$185 M13.6%-
2017-Q3$1,420 M4.44%$-34 M-2.4%-118.18%
2017-Q4$1,362 M-4.12%$215 M15.8%-737.75%
2018-Q1$1,236 M-9.23%$150 M12.2%-29.92%
2018-Q2$1,456 M17.79%$244 M16.7%61.97%
2018-Q3$1,399 M-3.94%$227 M16.3%-6.66%
2018-Q4$1,383 M-1.08%$136 M9.9%-39.98%
2019-Q1$1,680 M21.40%$449 M26.7%228.61%

Arch Capital ownership

When you are planning to buy a stock, it's worth to review its ownership structure.

Arch Capital shares owned by insiders (that is, founders, CEO, CTO, main executives or other management staff) currently counts a 3.05% of all shares.

Bearish positions for ACGL stock account 0.00%, no big difference from last month.

For a better context understanding, the next table shows ownership data compared to other related stocks:

ACGLAXSCBMKLRE
Market cap$15.6 B$5.4 B$70.2 B$15.9 B$10.1 B
Total shares403.8 M83.9 M457.9 M13.9 M40.7 M
Float shares356.4 M81.9 M452.5 M13.5 M40.1 M
  - Institutional holdings (%)90.9%92.5%90.5%78.1%98.5%
  - Insider holdings (%)3.0%2.5%0.6%2.6%25.6%
Shares in short selling0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

ACGL summary

Friday, August 23rd, 2019
Open$39.48
Close$38.61
Day range$38.43 - $39.84
Previous close$39.57
Session gain-2.43%
Average true range$0.84
50d mov avg$38.02
100d mov avg$35.88
200d mov avg$32.63
Daily pattern
Weekly pattern lt06a

Arch Capital performance

To better understand Arch Capital performance you must compare its gains with other related stocks in same sector or industry. We selected Axis Capital, Chubb, Markel, Everest Re and W.R. Berkley as the bechmarking frame for Arch Capital stock.
Stock3m6m12m
ACGLArch Capital12.24%19.54%25.07%
AXSAxis Capital7.25%14.65%15.16%
CBChubb4.05%15.24%15.99%
MKLMarkel8.25%14.47%-5.82%
REEverest Re0.14%12.46%15.44%
WRBW.R. Berkley15.07%30.13%38.31%

Arch Capital competitors

We picked a few stocks to conform a list of Arch Capital competitors to watch if you are interested in investing in ACGL:

Latest ACGL stock news